Suchergebnisse

AbstractDespite the aligned aspirations of many applied scientists and policy‐makers that science should contribute directly to policy decisions, there are significant gaps between what scientists provide and what policy‐makers can use. This article outlines the features that encourage effective adoption of scientific advice in public policy. It reviews some of the major impediments to its use. It describes governance mechanisms that aim to overcome these impediments, and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Opportunities exist for designing governance mechanisms that will better support the development and persistence of the personal relationships that underpin the most effective delivery of science for policy.

Detecting Extinction in Sighting Data -- Inferring Threat from Scientific Collections: Power Tests and an Application to Western Australian Acacia Species -- Identifying the Ecological Correlates of Extinction-Prone Species: A Case Study of New Zealand Birds -- Quantitative Methods for Modeling Species Habitat: Comparative Performance and an Application to Australian Plants -- Risk Assessment of a Proposed Introduction of Pacific Salmon in the Delaware River Basin -- Likelihood of Introducing Nonindigenous Organisms with Agricultural Commodities: Probabilistic Estimation -- "Best" Abundance Estimates and Best Management: Why They Are Not the Same -- Whaling Models for Cetacean Conservation -- Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Bull Trout Using Bayesian Belief Networks -- Using Matrix Models to Focus Research and Management Efforts in Conservation -- Variability and Measurement Error in Extinction Risk Analysis: The Northern Spotted Owl on the Olympic Peninsula -- Can Individual-Based Models Yield a Better Assessment of Population Variability? -- Potential of Branching Processes as a Modeling Tool for Conservation Biology -- Role of Genetics in Conservation Biology -- Modeling Problems in Conservation Genetics Using Laboratory Animals Richard Frankham -- Theoretical Properties of Extinction by Inbreeding Depression Under Stochastic Environments -- Mathematical Methods for Identifying Representative Reserve Networks.

"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made"--

AbstractWeighted aggregation of expert judgments based on their performance on calibration questions may improve mathematically aggregated judgments relative to equal weights. However, obtaining validated, relevant calibration questions can be difficult. If so, should analysts settle for equal weights? Or should they use calibration questions that are easier to obtain but less relevant? In this article, we examine what happens to the out‐of‐sample performance of weighted aggregations of the classical model (CM) compared to equal weighted aggregations when the set of calibration questions includes many so‐called "irrelevant" questions, those that might ordinarily be considered to be outside the domain of the questions of interest. We find that performance weighted aggregations outperform equal weights on the combined CM score, but not on statistical accuracy (i.e., calibration). Importantly, there was no appreciable difference in performance when weights were developed on relevant versus irrelevant questions. Experts were unable to adapt their knowledge across vastly different domains, and in‐sample validation did not accurately predict out‐of‐sample performance on irrelevant questions. We suggest that if relevant calibration questions cannot be found, then analysts should use equal weights, and draw on alternative techniques to improve judgments. Our study also indicates limits to the predictive accuracy of performance weighted aggregation, and the degree to which expertise can be adapted across domains. We note limitations in our study and urge further research into the effect of question type on the reliability of performance weighted aggregations.

Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule‐based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

In pursuit of socioeconomic development, many countries are expanding oil and mineral extraction into tropical forests. These activities seed access to remote, biologically rich areas, thereby endangering global biodiversity. We examined how protection of biodiversity and economic revenues can be balanced in biologically valuable regions. Using spatial data on oil profits and predicted species and ecosystem extents, we optimized the protection of 741 terrestrial species and 20 ecosystems of the Ecuadorian Amazon across a range of opportunity costs (i.e., sacrifices of extractive profit). We also applied spatial statistics to remotely sensed, historic deforestation data to focus the optimization on areas most threatened by imminent forest loss. Giving up 5% of a year's oil profits (US$221 million) allowed for a protected area network that retained an average of 65% of the extent of each species and ecosystem. This performance far exceeded that of the network produced by simple optimization for land area (which required a sacrifice of approximately 40% of annual oil profits [US$1.7 billion]) and used only marginally less land to achieve equivalent levels of ecological protection. We identified what we call emergency conservation targets: regions that are essential components of a cost-effective conservation reserve network but at imminent risk of destruction, thus requiring urgent and effective protection. Governments can use our methods when evaluating extractive-led development options to responsibly manage the associated ecological and economic trade-offs and protect natural capital. ; Cuando se busca el desarrollo socioeconómico, muchos países expanden la extracción de petróleo y de minerales dentro de los bosques tropicales. Estas actividades proporcionan el acceso a áreas remotas con riqueza biológica y por lo tanto ponen en peligro a la biodiversidad mundial. Examinamos cómo la protección de la biodiversidad y las ganancias económicas pueden estar balanceadas en regiones con valor biológico. Usamos datos espaciales sobre las ganancias del petróleo y sobre los pronósticos de la extensión de los ecosistemas y la distribución de las especies para optimizar la protección de 741 especies terrestres y 20 ecosistemas de la Amazonía ecuatoriana a lo largo de una gama de costos de oportunidad (es decir, los sacrificios de las ganancias de las industrias extractivas). También aplicamos estadística espacial a los datos de deforestación histórica detectados con telemetría para enfocar a la optimización en las áreas más amenazadas por la inminente pérdida del bosque. El sacrificio del 5% de las ganancias anuales provenientes del petróleo (US$221 millones) permitió la existencia de una red de áreas protegidas que retuvo un promedio de 65% de la extensión de cada ecosistema y de la distribución de cada especie. Este desempeño excedió por mucho aquél de la red de áreas protegidas producido de las ganancias anuales del petróleo [US$1.7 mil millones]); además de que utilizó ligeramente menos suelo para alcanzar los niveles equivalentes de protección ecológica. Identificamos algo que llamamos objetivos de conservación de emergencia: regiones que son componentes esenciales de una red de reservas de conservación rentable, pero a la vez un riesgo inminente de destrucción, por lo que requieren protección urgente y efectiva. Los gobiernos pueden usar nuestros métodos cuando evalúen sus opciones de desarrollo llevado por la extracción para manejar responsablemente las compensaciones ecológicas y económicas asociadas y así proteger al capital natural. ; Programa Capital Humano Avanzado from CONICYT 21150159