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This paper develops a unified framework for fixed and random effects estimation of higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data models with spatial autoregressive disturbances and heteroskedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define both a random effects and a fixed effects spatial generalized two-stage least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators and derive their joint asymptotic distribution, which is robust to heteroskedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. Finally, we derive a robust Hausman-test of the spatial random against the spatial fixed effects model.

Multinational institutions face an important trade-off when hiring personnel. On the one hand, hiring decisions are based, as in most organizations, on a candidate's professional qualifications. On the other hand, multinational institutions often aim for broad national representation. Reviewing evidence from the European Central Bank, we show that nationality is indeed relevant for both hiring and decision-making. Specifically, we identify various country-specific features that determine national representation in the top management of the ECB. Further, there is evidence for the existence of national networks between adjacent management layers. Finally, monetary policy decisions seem to be linked to national representation in the core business areas of the ECB. Examining a sample of 14 European countries over the period from 1999 to 2008, we estimate Taylor rules for alternative sets of euro area aggregates derived from different weighting schemes of national macroeconomic data. Our results indicate that weights based on national representation in the mid-level management of the ECB's core business areas best describe the central bank's interest-rate setting behavior.

This paper develops an estimator for higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models with spatial autoregressive disturbances, SARAR(R,S). We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define a generalized two-stages least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators, derive their joint asymptotic distribution, and provide Monte Carlo evidence on their small sample performance.

Recent research in international economics highlights the role of interdependencies of investment decisions and sales of multinational firms. Previous work focused on and provided evidence for aggregate flows or stocks of foreign direct investment, showing that interdependence declines in geographical distance among host countries. This could be interpreted as implicit evidence for export-platform foreign direct investmentan activity which creates a complementary relationship between (potential) host markets through final goods exports of foreign subsidiaries to third countries. This paper sheds light on interdependencies that are brought about by (horizontal) trade in final goods and (vertical) trade in intermediate goods (within and between host countries). For this, we use a panel data set of U.S. foreign affiliate sales to 16 developed countries in 7 industries over the period 1983-2000. As one of the first studies on that matter, we explicitly distinguish between horizontal and vertical interdependence in MNE activity and allow for both market size (demand) related as well as remainder linkage effects. The latter are captured by a second order spatial regressive error process. Overall, there is evidence for mainly vertical as opposed to horizontal interdependence and, hence, mainly vertical motives of multinational activity.

International audience ; This paper provides an empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal expenditure policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical expenditure policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries' political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of the cyclicality of expenditures. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical expenditure policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality on economic growth other than through output volatility.

Does aggressive use of discretionary fiscal policy induce macroeconomic instability in terms of higher output and inflation volatility? Three main conclusions arise from our cross-section and panel analysis for a sample of 20 OECD countries: First, discretionary fiscal policy has a significant and sizeable effect on volatility of GDP (per capita) and all of its components. Second, there is no direct effect on inflation volatility; since output volatility is an important determinant of inflation volatility, however, discretionary fiscal policy indirectly exacerbates inflation volatility. These results turn out robust with respect to alternative fiscal policy measures and endogeneity concerns. Finally, many of the fiscal rules introduced since 1990 appear to have reduced the use of discretionary fiscal policy.

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical fiscal policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries' political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of fiscal cyclicality. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical fiscal policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality of economic growth other than through output volatility. These findings advocate the introduction of fiscal rules that limit the use of (discretionary and) cyclical fiscal policy to improve growth performance by reducing volatility.

Using a vector error correction approach, I estimate Austria's demand for international reserves over the period 1985:1–1997:4 and test for short‐run effects of the disequilibrium on the national monetary market. I find that Austria's long‐run reserve demand can be described as a stable function of imports, uncertainty and the opportunity cost of holding reserves with strong economies of scale. The speed of adjustment takes a value of 38 per cent. The results confirm that an excess of money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves as postulated by the monetary approach to the balance of payments.

Entwicklung der Wachstumstheorie Effekte wirtschaftlicher Integration aus Sicht der Wachstumstheorie Geschichte der Europäischen Integration - Ein Überblick Empirie der Wachstumseffekte wirtschaftlicher Integration - Bisherige Studien Der Beitrag der Europäischen Integration zum Wirtschaftswachstum - Eine Untersuchung für die EU-15 Staaten (1950-2000) Schlußfolgerungen