Suchergebnisse

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long-term view genuinely is relevant to decisionmaking, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision-relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change services

Abstract
In many regions around the world, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide seasonal climate information and forecasts to decision-makers at regional and national levels. Despite having two decades of experience, the forums have not been systematically monitored or evaluated. To address this gap, and to better inform nascent and widespread efforts in climate services, the authors propose a process-oriented evaluation framework derived from literature on decision support and climate communication around the production and use of scientific information. The authors apply this framework to a case study of the Caribbean RCOF (CariCOF), where they have been engaged in a collaborative effort to integrate climate information and decision processes to enhance regional climate resilience. The authors' examination of the CariCOF shows an evolution toward the use of more advanced and more diverse climate products, as well as greater awareness of user feedback. It also reveals shortfalls of the CariCOF, including a lack of diverse stakeholder participation, a need for better understanding of best practices to tailor information, undeveloped market research of climate products, insufficient experimentation and vetting of communication mechanisms, and the absence of a way to steward a diverse network of regional actors. The authors' analysis also provides insight that allowed for improvements in the climate services framework to include mechanisms to respond to changing needs and conditions. The authors' process-oriented framework can serve as a starting point for evaluating RCOFs and other organizations charged with the provision of climate services.

Adaptation to anthropogenic climate change is the biggest challenge that humankind faces. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a synthesis of the state of the science, impacts, and policy, with a focus on long-term climate trends. However, the worst impacts of climate change are likely to come from its exacerbation of weather and climate variability. For example, higher temperatures in a particular region could lead to harsher droughts and more deadly heat waves. These are also the kinds of hazards that are regularly monitored and forecast by governments and institutions at the national, regional, and international scale. This paper argues that climate services are a critical component of adaptation. Communities that benefit from climate services will be better adapted to long-term climate change as well as the weather events and the year to-year variability it could make worse. Climate services involve the production, translation, transfer, and use of climate knowledge and information in relevant decision-making, policy and planninga. They involve far more than climate data, encompassing an understanding of the needs of decision makers and delivering useful information in ways it can be applied for better results. A well-functioning climate service can help decision-makers understand, anticipate, and manage climate-related risks across the range of relevant time scales, from days to decades, much in the way a national meteorological service (NMS) does for weather. Yet, in most of the world, climate services are not sufficiently developed, nor are they properly aligned with the needs of decision-makers in the sectors and systems that are most at risk. The urgency of the climate challenge calls for a critical examination of the current state of climate services relative to the needs of decision-makers; it also requires aggressive action to address long-standing obstacles to meeting those needs. While several decades of research, investment, and implementation provide a strong foundation for climate services, more deliberate action is needed to position climate services as essential to adaptation.