Suchergebnisse

Etudes & documents ; Proxy-means testing (PMT) is a method used to assess household or individual welfare level based on a set of observable indicators. The accuracy, and therefore usefulness of PMT relies on the selection of indicators that produce accurate predictions of household welfare. In this paper I propose a method to identify indicators that are robustly and strongly correlated with household welfare, measured by per capita consumption. From an initial set of 340 candidate variables drawn from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I identify the variables that contribute most significantly to model predictive performance and that are therefore desirable to be included in a PMT formula. These variables span the categories of household private asset holdings, access to basic domestic energy, education level, sanitation and housing. A comparison of the predictive performance of PMT formulas including 10, 20 and 30 of the best predictors of welfare shows that leads to recommending formulas with 20 predictors. Such parsimonious models have similar predictive performance as the PMT formulas currently used in Indonesia, although these latter are based on models of 32 variables on average.

Etudes & documents ; Proxy-means testing (PMT) is a method used to assess household or individual welfare level based on a set of observable indicators. The accuracy, and therefore usefulness of PMT relies on the selection of indicators that produce accurate predictions of household welfare. In this paper I propose a method to identify indicators that are robustly and strongly correlated with household welfare, measured by per capita consumption. From an initial set of 340 candidate variables drawn from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I identify the variables that contribute most significantly to model predictive performance and that are therefore desirable to be included in a PMT formula. These variables span the categories of household private asset holdings, access to basic domestic energy, education level, sanitation and housing. A comparison of the predictive performance of PMT formulas including 10, 20 and 30 of the best predictors of welfare shows that leads to recommending formulas with 20 predictors. Such parsimonious models have similar predictive performance as the PMT formulas currently used in Indonesia, although these latter are based on models of 32 variables on average.

Proxy-means testing (PMT) is a method used to assess household or individual welfare level based on a set of observable indicators. The accuracy, and therefore usefulness of PMT relies on the selection of indicators that produce accurate predictions of household welfare. In this paper I propose a method to identify indicators that are robustly and strongly correlated with household welfare, measured by per capita consumption. From an initial set of 340 candidate variables drawn from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I identify the variables that contribute most significantly to model predictive performance and that are therefore desirable to be included in a PMT formula. These variables span the categories of household private asset holdings, access to basic domestic energy, education level, sanitation and housing. A comparison of the predictive performance of PMT formulas including 10, 20 and 30 of the best predictors of welfare shows that leads to recommending formulas with 20 predictors. Such parsimonious models have similar predictive performance as the PMT formulas currently used in Indonesia, although these latter are based on models of 32 variables on average. ; Etudes & documents

In this paper, we present a rent-seeking model of conflict, which highlights the role of ideology in determining whether the government or the rebels take the initiative. We use the model to interpret the impact of a large-scale Community-Driven Development project on civil conflict in the Philippines. The country is characterized by the presence of two rebel groups, the New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), with two distinct ideologies. We use a unique geo-referenced panel dataset on the occurrence of conflicts in 2003 and 2006 gathered from local newspapers that we match with nationally representative household survey and budget data on all municipalities in the country. Consistent with our model's predictions, using a variety of estimation strategies, we find robust evidence that the project leads to a decline in MILF-related events and to an increase in NPA-related events.

In this paper, we present a rent-seeking model of conflict, which highlights the role of ideology in determining whether the government or the rebels take the initiative. We use the model to interpret the impact of a large-scale Community-Driven Development project on civil conflict in the Philippines. The country is characterized by the presence of two rebel groups, the New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), with two distinct ideologies. We use a unique geo-referenced panel dataset on the occurrence of conflicts in 2003 and 2006 gathered from local newspapers that we match with nationally representative household survey and budget data on all municipalities in the country. Consistent with our model's predictions, using a variety of estimation strategies, we find robust evidence that the project leads to a decline in MILF-related events and to an increase in NPA-related events.