Suchergebnisse

The development of a counter-insurgency doctrine is an evolutionary process: no two insurgencies are the same. However, certain fundamental principals remain consistent and these can be applied to meet the required circumstances. The creation of an overarching plan encompassing a combination of military, political and social actions under the strong control of a single authority is central. Therefore, understanding the basics allows for the development of a tactical strategy based upon a structured plan. Compiling the 'Plan' should be based upon the lessons learnt from the past. To this end, the methodology used is supported by a literature review and interviews from participants in a limited assessment of the two historical conflicts: Malaya and Kenya. Based upon the findings, a condensed table is presented to aid analysis, using a French doctrinal approach as a tool for interpretation. In addition, this is supported by quotes from the respondents involved in the research process. These findings are the preliminary results of a research study looking at what was effective during the prosecution of the selected insurgencies. Outcomes indicate that the fundamental principals are pertinent today and are therefore generally applicable.

Any viable method of protecting property, dissuading the theft of property or ensuring the swift recovery of stolen property could be considered essential to general society. A number of crime preventive measures have been used in an attempt to achieve this objective. One such measure is property marking, employing various techniques to make property more readily identifiable. The study assesses technology to investigate effectiveness, both for dissuasion and for tracing once stolen. Mechanism for the disposal of stolen property forms an important part of this study, commencing with the mapping of the theft‐supply‐chain. Using a mixed methods approach, the research project has set out to identify if security technology could be used to break what is termed the 'theft‐chain‐cycle', whereby articles are stolen, stolen to order or for barter. The theft‐supply‐chain is not a single linear model; rather property passes through a number of formal and informal chains prior to reaching its "new" illegal owner. A significant factor is the ease of disposal linked to ease of detection using property marking to aid conviction. Based upon the findings, potential strategies and changes in legislation that better direct limited resources can be developed to assist in curbing the growing level of burglaries.

This paper estimates the value of information for highly uncertain projects whose decisions have long-term impacts. We present a mathematically consistent framework using decision trees, Bayesian updating, and Monte Carlo simulation to value future information today, even when that future information is imperfect. One drawback of Monte Carlo methods in multivariate cases is the large number of samples required, which may result in prohibitive run times when considerable computer time is required to obtain each sample, as it is in our example. A polynomial chaos approach suitable for black-box functions is used to reduce these computations to manageable proportions. To our knowledge, this is the first exposition of polynomial chaos in the valuation literature. In our example it provides a speed-up of more than two orders of magnitude.We demonstrate the approach with an oilfield example involving a future decision on where to place a new injection well relative to a fault. The example considers the value to the asset holder of a measurement, to be made in the future, that reveals the degree of reservoir compartmentalization caused by this fault. In conditions of high demand for rigs and other scarce capital-intensive oilfield equipment, it may be appropriate for the asset holder to agree to a forward contract for this critical measurement to be taken at a future date at some specified price. The service provider would be contractually bound to provide this measurement at this pre-agreed price within a specified time window, regardless of the prevailing price and availability of rigs and equipment. Despite the presence of financial uncertainty on future oil price and private uncertainty on reservoir variables that are largely unresolved by the measurement, our methodology provides a computationally efficient valuation framework, possibly leading to novel ways of setting up contract terms.