Suchergebnisse

"Elections are the ultimate mode of reducing each of us to a bean and counting us" (Verba 1993, 684).Things are not really that bad. On election day the voter, marking the typical American long ballot, makes a pronouncement more complex and nuanced than a single tally. We can learn much about voting behavior by paying attention to the full message that each voter sends us.This can be done by conducting a "scholarly recount": sorting the ballots into groups representing the possible combinations of choices (Democratic for Congress, Republican for governor, Democratic for state senator, etc.) and counting them. The relative sizes of the groups can not only give us a precise answer to the often-asked question about the magnitude of ticket splitting, but also answer the more general and more important question: How do the voters distribute themselves among all possible combinations of candidate choices—two straight tickets and a great many mixed ones? The analyst may also find, in the composition of the candidate combinations attracting the largest numbers of voters, some clues as to the candidate characteristics and voter attitudes that are exerting the greatest influence on the ballot markings.

A method of analyzing conflict problems called 'analysis of options' (N. Howard, The Theory of Metagames, PhD thesis, U of London, 1968, & GAMES, METAGAMES AND RATION- ALITY, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1971) is described. It is then applied to the 'Subway-Highway Debate' in Washington, DC, Jul 1969. The major construction projects involved in the dispute were listed; then the parties (interest groups) involved in the dispute were identified & 10 alternatives were found to be available to the 5 parties (players). 'Players' were divided into 2 types-those which could be seen as making 'pol'al' decisions, & those which exercized relatively constant pressure on the group called Public Officials for Roads in favor of their interests. Options were assigned to the players & a game analysis was performed on this basis, indicating coalition preferences, the exact assumptions made, impasse situations & their possible solutions, possible sanctions by opponents, & compromises. A type of game equilibrium is found for the case discussed, which Is often dangerous & destructive. This is the so-called 'conflict point' at which a player deliberately acts against the others' interests in order to induce them to accept a compromise he prefers. Of all the compromises investigated in this case, the subway-bridge package seemed the most likely to be stable & acceptable. The actual situation is still deadlocked-back to the original impasse. The solution might be a 'sequential' package rather than an immediate package deal, in which the needs of 2 of the parties would be met by building the subway without hurting the Public Officials for Roads. It is concluded that the Analysis of Options Technique is a valid method & framework for a logical, thorough discussion of what stabilities exist in an ongoing pol'al crisis. If it were introduced at an early stage of a controversy before prolonged debates have sharpened the issues, it might help the parties to arrive at a compromise. The approach allows for translating some useful mathematical ideas from the theory of games to some complex real life problems. 5 Tables. M. Maxfield.