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Working paper
The Welfare Costs of Misinformation
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Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 127, S. 104117
ISSN: 0165-1889
Health, Longevity, and Welfare Inequality of Older Americans
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Informal Care Shocks and Social Security Claiming Behavior
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Demographic Transition, Human Capital and Economic Growth in China
We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short-run.
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Social Insurance, Demographics, and Rural-Urban Migration in China
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Working paper
End-of-Life Liquidity
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Consumer Learning and the Entry of Generic Pharmaceuticals
In: NBER Working Paper No. w23662
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Working paper