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Large halloween asteroid at lunar distance
The near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 2015 TB had a very close encounter with Earth at 1.3 lunar distances on October 31, 2015. We obtained 3-band mid-infrared observations of this asteroid with the ESO VLT-VISIR instrument covering approximately four hours in total. We also monitored the visual lightcurve during the close-encounter phase. The NEA has a (most likely) rotation period of 2.939 ± 0.005 h and the visual lightcurve shows a peak-to-peak amplitude of approximately 0.12 ± 0.02 mag. A second rotation period of 4.779 ± 0.012 h, with an amplitude of the Fourier fit of 0.10 ± 0.02 mag, also seems compatible with the available lightcurve measurements. We estimate a V-R colour of 0.56 ± 0.05 mag from different entries in the MPC database. A reliable determination of the object's absolute magnitude was not possible. Applying different phase relations to the available R-/V-band observations produced H = 18.6 mag (standard H-G calculations) or H = 19.2 mag and H = 19.8 mag (via the H-G procedure for sparse and low-quality data), with large uncertainties of approximately 1 mag. We performed a detailed thermophysical model analysis by using spherical and partially also ellipsoidal shape models. The thermal properties are best explained by an equator-on (± 30°) viewing geometry during our measurements with a thermal inertia in the range 250-700 J m s K (retrograde rotation) or above 500 J m s K (prograde rotation). We find that the NEA has a minimum size of approximately 625 m, a maximum size of just below 700 m, and a slightly elongated shape with a/b 1.1. The best match to all thermal measurements is found for: (i) thermal inertia Γ = 900 J m s K; D = 644 m, p = 5.5% (prograde rotation with 2.939 h); regolith grain sizes of 50-100 mm; (ii) thermal inertia Γ = 400 J m s K; D = 667 m, p = 5.1% (retrograde rotation with 2.939 h); regolith grain sizes of 10-20 mm. A near-Earth asteroid model (NEATM) confirms an object size well above 600 m (best NEATM solution at 690 m, beaming parameter η = 1.95), significantly larger than early estimates based on radar measurements. In general, a high-quality physical and thermal characterisation of a close-encounter object from two-week apparition data is not easily possible. We give recommendations for improved observing strategies for similar events in the future. © ESO, 2017. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under Grant Agreement No. 687378. Funding from Spanish grant AYA-2014-56637-C2-1-P is acknowledged. Hungarian funding from the NKFIH grant GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00003 is also acknowledged. R.D. acknowledges the support of MINECO for his Ramon y Cajal Contract. ; Peer Reviewed
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Thermal properties of slowly rotating asteroids: results from a targeted survey
Context. Earlier work suggests that slowly rotating asteroids should have higher thermal inertias than faster rotators because the heat wave penetrates deeper into the subsurface. However, thermal inertias have been determined mainly for fast rotators due to selection effects in the available photometry used to obtain shape models required for thermophysical modelling (TPM). Aims. Our aims are to mitigate these selection effects by producing shape models of slow rotators, to scale them and compute their thermal inertia with TPM, and to verify whether thermal inertia increases with the rotation period. Methods. To decrease the bias against slow rotators, we conducted a photometric observing campaign of main-belt asteroids with periods longer than 12 h, from multiple stations worldwide, adding in some cases data from WISE and Kepler space telescopes. For spin and shape reconstruction we used the lightcurve inversion method, and to derive thermal inertias we applied a thermophysical model to fit available infrared data from IRAS, AKARI, and WISE. Results. We present new models of 11 slow rotators that provide a good fit to the thermal data. In two cases, the TPM analysis showed a clear preference for one of the two possible mirror solutions. We derived the diameters and albedos of our targets in addition to their thermal inertias, which ranged between 3(-3)(+33) and 45(-30)(+60) Jm(-2) s(-1/2) K-1. Conclusions. Together with our previous work, we have analysed 16 slow rotators from our dense survey with sizes between 30 and 150 km. The current sample thermal inertias vary widely, which does not confirm the earlier suggestion that slower rotators have higher thermal inertias.© ESO 2019 ; This work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, through grant no. 2014/13/D/ST9/01818. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under Grant Agreement no 687378 (SBNAF). The research of V.K. was supported by a grant from the Slovak Research and Development Agency, number APVV-15-0458. R. D. acknowledges financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the >Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa> award for the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia(SEV-2017-0709). The Joan Oro Telescope (TJO) of the Montsec Astronomical Observatory (OAdM) is owned by the Catalan Government and operated by the Institute for Space Studies of Catalonia (IEEC). This article is based on observations made in the Observatorios de Canarias del IAC with the 0.82 m IAC80 telescope operated on the island of Tenerife by the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC) in the Observatorio del Teide. This article is based on observations made with the SARA telescopes (Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy), whose nodes are located at the Observatorios de Canarias del IAC on the island of La Palma in the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos; Kitt Peak, AZ under the auspices of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO); and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in La Serena, Chile. This project uses data from the SuperWASP archive. The WASP project is currently funded and operated by Warwick University and Keele University, and was originally set up by Queen's University Belfast, the Universities of Keele, St. Andrews, and Leicester, the Open University, the Isaac Newton Group, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, the South African Astronomical Observatory, and by STFC. Funding for the Kepler and K2 missions is provided by the NASA Science Mission Directorate. The data presented in this paper were obtained from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST). STScI is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555. Support for MAST for non-HST data is provided by the NASA Office of Space Science via grant NNX09AF08G and by other grants and contracts. This publication makes use of data products from theWide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, which is a joint project of the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The research leading to these results has received funding from the LP2012-31 and LP2018-7/2018 Lendulet grants of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
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Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
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Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long- term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
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