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This paper examines the effect of international organizations (IOs) on the recurrence of international crises. In line with existing literature on conflict onset, I suggest that country-dyads with more co-memberships in IOs have a lower probability of fighting again. Moving beyond this claim, however, I argue that the scope and mandate of the IO are not relevant for the risk of crisis recurrence. Ultimately, all types of IOs promote links between states and strengthen their chances for effective international cooperation. Empirically, I examine the probability of crisis recurrence between 1950 and 2008, using the count of dyadic co-memberships as the main explanatory variable. The results show that co-membership in any type of IO has negative and significant impact on crisis recurrence. Moreover, the disaggregation of IOs into different categories (e.g., those dedicated to conflict prevention, peace-brokering, or security) also points to a negative effect. The effects of IOs disaggregated by type, however, are not significantly different from the overall IO impact.

AbstractExisting research suggests that both natural resource abundance and scarcity are likely to increase the risk of interstate and domestic conflict. Two crucial aspects, however, have largely been neglected in the existing literature: (1) the analysis of international crises (i.e. non-violent conflicts) and (2) the effects of different market conditions of energy resources. Especially a growing number of market participants can affect the strategic value of natural resources and, thus, the incentives for international crisis initiation. It is argued that different market structures make countries to adopt either aggressive or more peaceful behavior towards other states, and this is why I empirically then disaggregate fossil fuels along with the market that they belong to. This study examines 179 countries at the monadic level since 1980. The results suggest variation on the incentives of crisis initiation along the different fossil fuels, while I also correct for potential endogeneity issues.

Environmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of climate variability on the recruitment of children by rebel groups during conflict. We argue that changes in climate patterns increase both the supply of children willing to work as soldiers and rebel groups' demand for them. To empirically examine this association, we combine global data on temperature and precipitation shocks with information on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups. Our findings suggest that climate variability shapes child soldier recruitment in systematic and significant ways. Additionally, we show that this relationship is not gender-neutral: it has a strong impact on the level of girls recruited by rebel groups. This research has important implications for our understanding of how climate variability can influence conflict dynamics, how environmental changes may worsen the circumstances of the most vulnerable individuals of conflict-affected societies, and how a non-gender-neutral effect of climate change may materialize.

The Brexit campaign was based on the idea that newly gained British sovereignty and flexibility in global trade governance would facilitate the quick negotiation of preferential trade agreements. We explore how long it may take for a state to negotiate bilateral preferential trade agreements to offset potential losses from International Organizations withdrawals. We address the question of 'timing', and discuss several mechanisms that delay or speed up the implementation of bilateral trade deals after exiting International Organizations. The empirical findings are based on quantitative data and models accounting for the likely simultaneous relationship between International Organizations exits and preferential trade agreements' formation. We show that leaving economic organisations significantly lowers the likelihood of subsequent preferential trade agreements ratification. This effect wears out after about 1 year. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of International Organizations, state benefits' stemming from their membership therein, bilateral trade deals, and international cooperation.

This research focuses on a positive, and previously largely unknown, implication of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping: better environmental quality. While maintaining international peace and security remains the main goal of peacekeeping operations, we contend that they can also be linked to environmentally friendly outcomes. Mission mandates and UN policies increasingly comprise actions that potentially promote environmental quality. At the same time, positive side effects on the environment materialize due to the cooperation with and activities of other UN bodies. The empirical analyses, also correcting for the likely non-random assignment of peace missions and employing several alternative outcome measures, suggest that UN peace missions are indeed substantively associated with better environmental quality. This research has important implications for our understanding of peacekeeping operations, and it contributes to the literatures on the (unintended) consequences of peacekeeping as well as environmental politics.

This research focuses on a positive, and previously largely unknown, implication of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping: better environmental quality. While maintaining international peace and security remains the main goal of peacekeeping operations, we contend that they can also be linked to environmentally friendly outcomes. Mission mandates and UN policies increasingly comprise actions that potentially promote environmental quality. At the same time, positive side effects on the environment materialize due to the cooperation with and activities of other UN bodies. The empirical analyses, also correcting for the likely non-random assignment of peace missions and employing several alternative outcome measures, suggest that UN peace missions are indeed substantively associated with better environmental quality. This research has important implications for our understanding of peacekeeping operations, and it contributes to the literatures on the (unintended) consequences of peacekeeping as well as environmental politics.

Economic conditions are typically viewed as having an important influence on environmental policy. In particular, it is widely believed that under adverse economic conditions, electorates and governments prioritize economic growth and jobs over costly ecological restraint. The empirical evidence for this received wisdom, however, remains surprisingly contradictory. We contribute to this debate by studying a case where the odds of the economy-environment trade-off claim holding true should be high: an emerging economy in severe recession, and environmental policy with high short-term costs and long-term benefits. Based on a representative survey (N=2449) in Brazil, implemented in late 2015/early 2016, we examine how ego- and socio-tropic economic conditions, both perceived and real, affect citizens' preferences concerning the mitigation of deforestation and climate change. We find no robust evidence for an economy-environment trade-off. The main policy implication is that, from a public opinion perspective, there is considerable room for ambitious environmental policy even under adverse economic conditions.