Suchergebnisse

This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers ar

Most papers explaining the macro causes of the U.S. Great Recession focus on the behavior of the middle class: how its saving rate declined in the pre-crisis years, then surged following the crisis. This paper argues that the saving rate of the rich followed a similar pattern, the result of wealth effects associated with a boom-bust in asset prices. Indeed, the swings in saving by the rich must actually have played the most important role in the consumption boom-bust, since since the top 10 percent account for almost half of income and two-thirds of wealth. In other words, the rich played a cr

Cover -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Risk Premia and Output: a Stylized Model -- 3 The Role of Risk Premium Shocks in the post-2008 Unemployment Surges -- 3.1 All Countries with Risk Premium Shocks had Unemployment Surges -- and all Countries with Unemployment Surges had Risk Shocks -- 3.2 Risk Premium Shocks Help Explain why Countries with Similar GDP Declines had Very Different Unemployment Rate Movements -- 4 The Baltics 2008/2009 Crisis -- 4.1 The Crisis -- 4.2 What was Behind the Risk Premium Shocks? -- 5 The Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis -- 5.1 The Crisis -- 5.2 Fiscal Sustainability Concerns and Financing -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Data Sources.

AbstractThis article is based on a panel discussion on the future of transition countries 25 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. All the contributors have long professional and personal experience of various aspects of the transition process so far and provide different perspectives on what to expect for the region in the future. However, the need for continued reform in many areas of the respective economies are highlighted to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth in the future. A continued focus on enhancing productivity is the key to future economic success. Investments in human and physical capital need to be complemented with strengthening the fundamental institutions that make such investments possible and desirable for all relevant stakeholders. It will not be an easy reform process, but the alternatives are much less desirable for the vast majority of people in these countries.

The striking turnaround in the Netherlands' economic performance over the past decade and a half has attracted widespread attention. Emerging from deep recession and high unemployment in the early 1980s, the economy shifted to a pace of growth more rapid than that in neighboring economies, and posted a rise in employment close to that in the United States. However, a number of important problems remain to be tackled to further strengthen economic performance in the Netherlands. The material presented in this paper was originally prepared as background for discussions in the IMF Executive Board and takes account of developments through March 1999