Suchergebnisse

AbstractAgriculture is responsible for 20%–25% of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), which result from production practices and land use conversion. Supply‐side approaches for reducing emissions from agriculture rely on emissions‐saving technological change and environmental protection of carbon‐rich areas. This study investigates how productivity policies, in the form of higher agricultural research and development (R&D) spending, might affect GHG emissions from agriculture, and compares this to environmental policies that restrict agricultural land use or production practices that may cause environmental harm. Using simulations from a global economic model, we project outcomes in 2050 from a set of policy scenarios involving R&D and environmental policies, and combinations of the two. Outcomes of interest are net global GHG emissions, land use, agricultural production, food prices, the prevalence of food insecurity, and policy cost. We find that at the global level, more R&D spending to accelerate productivity growth reduces GHG emissions from land use change, but not as effectively as targeted environmental policies. However, accelerated productivity growth reduces the emissions intensity of agricultural production and, by lowering land rents, also reduces the cost of the environmental policy. Moreover, higher levels of productivity lower agricultural GHG emissions permanently, and by lowering global food prices, generally improve global food security. A policy scenario that is patterned after the EU Green Deal finds that policies that restrict agricultural factor inputs in order to reduce local environmental costs may, at the global level, increase agricultural GHG emissions and worsen food insecurity. These consequences could be avoided with higher EU R&D spending to accelerate agricultural productivity growth that is either factor neutral or biased toward saving production factors associated with negative environmental externalities.

The Economic Case for Nature is part of a series of papers by the World Bank that lays out the economic rationale for investing in nature and recognizes how economies rely on nature for services that are largely underpriced. This report presents a first-of-its-kind global integrated ecosystem-economy modelling exercise to assess economic policy responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Modeling the interaction between nature's services and the global economy to 2030, the report points to a range and combination of policy scenarios available to reduce the impact of nature's loss on economies. This modeling framework represents an important steppingstone towards 'nature-smart' decision-making, as it seeks to support policymakers who face complex tradeoffs involving the management of natural capital, and hence achieving growth that is resilient and inclusive.