Suchergebnisse

HA was supported by the Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Ministry of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia (grant numbers B00391 [FI-2018] and 100180 [FI-2019]). JB gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant numbers 727852 [project Blue-Action], 730004 [project PUCS], and 737480 [Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship ACCLIM]). We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES and the data providers from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project. ; Background: Climate change driven by human activities has increased annual temperatures in Spain by around 1°C since 1980. However, little is known regarding the extent to which the association between temperature and mortality has changed among the most susceptible population groups as a result of the rapidly warming climate. We aimed to assess trends in temperature-related cardiovascular disease mortality in Spain by sex and age, and we investigated the association between climate warming and changes in the risk of mortality. Methods: We did a country-wide time-series analysis of 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. We extracted daily cardiovascular disease mortality data disaggregated by sex, age, and province from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics database. We also extracted daily mean temperatures from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model for each province, controlling for seasonal and long-term trends, to estimate the temporal changes in the province-specific temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models. We did a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive the best linear unbiased prediction of the temperature-mortality association and the minimum mortality temperature in each province. Heat-attributable and cold-attributable fractions of death were computed by separating the contributions from days with temperatures warmer and colder than the minimum mortality temperature, respectively. Findings: Between 1980 and 2016, 4 576 600 cardiovascular deaths were recorded. For warm temperatures, the increase in relative risk (RR) of death from cardiovascular diseases was higher for women than men and higher for older individuals (aged ≥90 years) than younger individuals (aged 60-74 years), whereas for cold temperatures, RRs were higher for men than women, with no clear pattern by age group. The heat-attributable fraction of cardiovascular deaths was higher for women in all age groups, and the cold-attributable fraction was larger in men. The heat-attributable fraction increased with age for both sexes, whereas the cold-attributable fraction increased with age for men and decreased for women. Overall minimum mortality temperature increased from 19·5°C between 1980 and 1994 to 20·2°C between 2002 and 2016, which is similar in magnitude to, and occurred in parallel with, the observed mean increase of 0·77°C that occurred in Spain between these two time periods. In general, between 1980 and 2016, the risk and attributable fraction of cardiovascular deaths due to warm and cold temperatures decreased for men and women across all age groups. For all the age groups combined, between 1980-94 and 2002-16, the heat-attributable fraction decreased by −42·06% (95% empirical CI −44·39 to −41·06) for men and −36·64% (−36·70 to −36·04) for women, whereas the cold-attributable fraction was reduced by −30·23% (−30·34 to −30·05) for men and −44·87% (−46·77 to −42·94) for women. Interpretation: In Spain, the observed warming of the climate has occurred in parallel with substantial adaptation to both high and low temperatures. The reduction in the RR and the attributable fraction associated with heat would be compatible with an adaptive response specifically addressing the negative consequences of climate change. Nevertheless, the simultaneous reduction in the RR and attributable fraction of cold temperatures also highlights the importance of more general factors such as socioeconomic development, increased life expectancy and quality, and improved health-care services in the country.

In Blue-Action, we developed a prototype climate service of temperature-attributable mortality (deliverables D5.7-D5.9). Due to the complexity of the epidemiological associations to be modelled for the development of the service, we focused our work onto the study of the predictability of the health forecasts, in order to ensure that the scheme generates valuable information that can be used by stakeholders. The present deliverable is focused on the dissemination of the service. Apart from basic visibility of the work done, the main underlying aim of this deliverable is to attract scientists and meteorological agencies that might be interested in turning the prototype into operation mode. While the results of this Blue-Action case study are relevant for decision-making, it is also vital to raise awareness about the risks of ambient temperatures for public health. Our dissemination activities focused onto the following audiences: the scientific community, with scientific documents (e.g. deliverables, papers, etc.) thoroughly detailing the methodology and results of the case study; decision-makers and the general public, by developing a website (http://www.heathealth.eu) in order to provide information that can be understood by a non-specialist audience, using easier terminology, diagrams, illustrations, and providing a description of the context and of the state-of-the-art in the fields of climate variability, climate change and human health. ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852.

Abstract. Trends of extreme-temperature episodes in cities are
increasing (in frequency, magnitude and duration) due to regional climate
change in interaction with urban effects. Urban morphologies and thermal
properties of the materials used to build them are factors that influence spatial and temporal climate variability and are one of the main
reasons for the climatic singularity of cities. This paper presents a
methodology to evaluate the urban and peri-urban effect on extreme-temperature exposure in Barcelona (Spain), using the Local Climate Zone
(LCZ) classification as a basis, which allows a comparison with
other cities of the world characterised using this criterion. LCZs were
introduced as input of the high-resolution UrbClim model (100 m spatial
resolution) to create daily temperature (median and maximum) series for
summer (JJA) during the period 1987 to 2016, pixel by pixel, in order to
create a cartography of extremes. Using the relationship between mortality
due to high temperatures and temperature distribution, the heat exposure
of each LCZ was obtained. Methodological results of the paper show the
improvement obtained when LCZs were mapped through a combination of two
techniques (land cover–land use maps and the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools – WUDAPT – method), and the paper proposes a methodology to obtain the exposure to high temperatures of
different LCZs in urban and peri-urban areas. In the case of Barcelona, the
distribution of temperatures for the 90th percentile (about
3–4 ∘C above the average conditions) leads to an increase in
the relative risk of mortality of 80 %.

Poster presented at the 5-9 June 2017, 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference, Glasgow (UK) Why Climate Services? Weather and climate prediction in the Arctic and northern regions is inherently challenging and year-on-year and decadal variability makes it difficult to detect reliable signals of change. Changes in Arctic climate and weather patterns also influence Northern Hemisphere weather and climate, and potentially other climate systems worldwide. In an increasingly globalized world, decision-makers from all sectors need to access improved climate and weather information across regional boundaries to address forthcoming social and economic challenges posed by a changing climate. Why Blue-Action? The Blue-Action project aims to deliver improved modelling, prediction, and forecasting of Arctic climate change and its impact on Northern Hemisphere climate, weather, and extreme weather events, in line with stakeholder needs. Activities across the academic, business, policy, and public communities are often disconnected, or follow a linear, 'scientist-tells-end-user' pathway, limiting opportunities for true co-creation of outcomes and real innovation. With this in mind, Blue-Action brings together trans-disciplinary teams covering the entire pathway from earth observation and modelling to businesses and local communities to focus on developing new effective, and scalable services based on cutting-edge climate science. Enabling better co-creation of climate services is central to Blue- Action's approach. ; Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate is a Research and Innovation action (RIA) funded by the Horizon 2020 Work programme topics addressed: BG-10-2016 Impact of Arctic changes on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Start date: 1 December 2016. End date: 1 March 2021. We support Blue Growth! Visit us on: www.blue-action.eu Follow us on Twitter: @BG10Blueaction

Background: South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change and is projected to experience some of the highest increases in average annual temperatures throughout the century. Although the adverse impacts of ambient temperature on human health have been extensively documented in the literature, only a limited number of studies have focused on populations in this region. Objectives: Our aim was to systematically review the current state and quality of available evidence on the direct relationship between ambient temperature and heat waves and all-cause mortality in South Asia. Methods: The databases Pubmed, Web of Science, Scopus and Embase were searched from 1990 to 2020 for relevant observational quantitative studies. We applied the Navigation Guide methodology to assess the strength of the evidence and performed a meta-analysis based on a novel approach that allows for combining nonlinear exposure-response associations without access to data from individual studies. Results: From the 6,759 screened papers, 27 were included in the qualitative synthesis and five in a meta-analysis. Studies reported an association of all-cause mortality with heat wave episodes and both high and low daily temperatures. The meta-analysis showed a U-shaped pattern, with increasing mortality for both high and low temperatures, but a statistically significant association was found only at higher temperatures - above 31° C for lag 0-1 days and above 34° C for lag 0-13 days. Effects were found to vary with cause of death, age, sex, location (urban vs. rural), level of education and socio-economic status, but the profile of vulnerabilities was somewhat inconsistent and based on a limited number of studies. Overall, the strength of the evidence for ambient temperature as a risk factor for all-cause mortality was judged as limited and for heat wave episodes as inadequate. Conclusions: The evidence base on temperature impacts on mortality in South Asia is limited due to the small number of studies, their skewed geographical distribution and methodological weaknesses. Understanding the main determinants of the temperature-mortality association as well as how these may evolve in the future in a dynamic region such as South Asia will be an important area for future research. Studies on viable adaptation options to high temperatures for a region that is a hotspot for climate vulnerability, urbanisation and population growth are also needed. ; VI gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730,004 (project PUCS). JB gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 865,564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT), 727,852 (project Blue-Action) and 730,004 (project PUCS). CT was funded through a Ramón y Cajal fellowship (RYC-2015–17402) awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.

We are all facing a changing climate. Businesses, policymakers, and local communities need to access reliable weather and climate information to safeguard human health, wellbeing, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. However, important changes in climate variability and extreme weather events are difficult to pinpoint and account for in existing modelling and forecasting tools. Moreover, many changes in the global climate are linked to the Arctic, where climate change is occurring rapidly, making weather and climate prediction a considerable challenge. ; Blue-Action has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852

During the course of the project, it was realized that the data needed by the WP5 case studies can also be provided by the WP1 "Improving seasonal long range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events" and not only by the WP4 "Enhancing the capacity of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions in the Arctic and over the Northern Hemisphere". This was realized at the kick‐off meeting, when the timescales of interest emerged. Since WP`1 focuses on the subseasonal to seasonal scale, and both of the forecast systems used in WP1 (that is the CMCC system and the MPI‐ESM based system) offer initialized hindcast experiments from (sub)seasonal to decadal, all case studies focusing on seasonal predictability established connections to WP1 at the kick‐off meeting. That is why this deliverable has now seen the broader interaction of several teams in WP1 and WP5 as well. This deliverable indicates how the five case studies have received data from WP1/WP4 and how these data are currently being used for the implementation of the activities in each case study. 1. Winter tourism centers in Finland 2. Temperature‐related human mortality in European regions 3. Extreme weather risks to maritime activities 4. Climate services for marine fisheries 5. Russian Arctic resource extraction More information on these case studies can be found here: http://www.blueaction.eu/index.php?id=4139 ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852 http://www.blueaction.eu/

About this document Deliverable: D4.1 Work package in charge: WP4 Actual delivery date for this deliverable: Project‐month 6 (June 2017) Dissemination level: The general public (PU) Abstract During the course of the project, it was realized that the data needed by the WP5 case studies can also be provided by the WP1 "Improving seasonal long range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events" and not only by the WP4 "Enhancing the capacity of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions in the Arctic and over the Northern Hemisphere". This was realized at the kick‐off meeting, when the timescales of interest emerged. Since WP`1 focuses on the subseasonal to seasonal scale, and both of the forecast systems used in WP1 (that is the CMCC system and the MPI‐ESM based system) offer initialized hindcast experiments from (sub)seasonal to decadal, all case studies focusing on seasonal predictability established connections to WP1 at the kick‐off meeting. That is why this deliverable has now seen the broader interaction of several teams in WP1 and WP5 as well. This deliverable indicates how the five case studies have received data from WP1/WP4 and how these data are currently being used for the implementation of the activities in each case study. 1. Winter tourism centers in Finland 2. Temperature‐related human mortality in European regions 3. Extreme weather risks to maritime activities 4. Climate services for marine fisheries 5. Russian Arctic resource extraction More information on these case studies can be found here: http://www.blueaction.eu/index.php?id=4139 ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852 http://www.blueaction.eu/

An ongoing epidemic of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) afflicts large parts of Central America and is hypothesized to be linked to heat stress at work. Mortality rates from CKDu appear to have increased dramatically since the 1970s. To explore this relationship, we assessed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures during harvest months between 1973 and 2014 as well as in the number of days during the harvest season for which the maximum temperature surpassed 35 °C. Data were collected at a weather station at a Nicaraguan sugar company where large numbers of workers have been affected by CKDu. Monthly averages of the daily maximum temperatures between 1996 and 2014 were also compared to concurrent weather data from eight Automated Surface Observing System Network weather stations across Nicaragua. Our objectives were to assess changes in temperature across harvest seasons, estimate the number of days that workers were at risk of heat-related illness and compare daily maximum temperatures across various sites in Nicaragua. The monthly average daily maximum temperature during the harvest season increased by 0.7 °C per decade between 1973 and 1990. The number of days per harvest season with a maximum temperature over 35 °C increased by approximately five days per year between 1974 and 1990, from 32 days to 114 days. Between 1991 and 2013, the number of harvest days with a maximum temperature over 35 °C decreased by two days per year, and the monthly average daily maximum temperature decreased by 0.3 °C per decade. Comparisons with weather stations across Nicaragua demonstrate that this company is located in one of the consistently hottest regions of the country. ; MKS and DRB were supported by a grant from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH/NIEHS), award number R01 ES027584. ZEP was supported by NIH/NIEHS award numbers T32 ES014562 and F31 ES030974. JB gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research ...

Numerous studies have demonstrated the relationship between summer temperatures and increased heat-related deaths. Epidemiological analyses of the health effects of climate exposures usually rely on observations from the nearest weather station to assess exposure-response associations for geographically diverse populations. Urban climate models provide high-resolution spatial data that may potentially improve exposure estimates, but to date, they have not been extensively applied in epidemiological research. We investigated temperature-mortality relationships in the city of Barcelona, and whether estimates vary among districts. We considered georeferenced individual (natural) mortality data during the summer months (June-September) for the period 1992-2015. We extracted daily summer mean temperatures from a 100-m resolution simulation of the urban climate model (UrbClim). Summer hot days (above percentile 70) and reference (below percentile 30) temperatures were compared by using a conditional logistic regression model in a case crossover study design applied to all districts of Barcelona. Relative Risks (RR), and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI), of all-cause (natural) mortality and summer temperature were calculated for several population subgroups (age, sex and education level by districts). Hot days were associated with an increased risk of death (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.10-1.16) and were significant in all population subgroups compared to the non-hot days. The risk ratio was higher among women (RR = 1.16; 95% CI= 1.12-1.21) and the elderly (RR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.13-1.22). Individuals with primary education had similar risk (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.08-1.18) than those without education (RR = 1.10; 95% CI= 1.05-1.15). Moreover, 6 out of 10 districts showed statistically significant associations, varying the risk ratio between 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03-1.21) in Sants-Montjuïc and 1.25 (95% CI = 1.14-1.38) in Sant Andreu. Findings identified vulnerable districts and suggested new insights to public health policy makers on how to develop district-specific strategies to reduce risks. ; J.B. gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 865564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT), 727852 (project Blue-Action) and 730004 (project PUCS), and from the Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIU) under grant agreements No RYC2018-025446-I (programme Ramón y Cajal) and EUR2019-103822 (project EURO-ADAPT). V.I. acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 730004 (project PUCS). H.A. gratefully acknowledges funding from the Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Ministry of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia (grant numbers B00391 [FI-2018], B100180 [FI-2019] and B200139 [FI-2020]).

Background: Car-dependent city planning has resulted in high levels of environmental pollution, sedentary lifestyles and increased vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The Barcelona Superblock model is an innovative urban and transport planning strategy that aims to reclaim public space for people, reduce motorized transport, promote sustainable mobility and active lifestyles, provide urban greening and mitigate effects of climate change. We estimated the health impacts of implementing this urban model across Barcelona. Methods: We carried out a quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) study for Barcelona residents ≥20 years (N = 1,301,827) on the projected Superblock area level (N = 503), following the comparative risk assessment methodology. We 1) estimated expected changes in (a) transport-related physical activity (PA), (b) air pollution (NO2), (c) road traffic noise, (d) green space, and (e) reduction of the urban heat island (UHI) effect through heat reductions; 2) scaled available risk estimates; and 3) calculated attributable health impact fractions. Estimated endpoints were preventable premature mortality, changes in life expectancy and economic impacts. Results: We estimated that 667 premature deaths (95% CI: 235-1,098) could be prevented annually through implementing the 503 Superblocks. The greatest number of preventable deaths could be attributed to reductions in NO2 (291, 95% PI: 0-838), followed by noise (163, 95% CI: 83-246), heat (117, 95% CI: 101-137), and green space development (60, 95% CI: 0-119). Increased PA for an estimated 65,000 persons shifting car/motorcycle trips to public and active transport resulted in 36 preventable deaths (95% CI: 26-50). The Superblocks were estimated to result in an average increase in life expectancy for the Barcelona adult population of almost 200 days (95% CI: 99-297), and result in an annual economic impact of 1.7 billion EUR (95% CI: 0.6-2.8). Discussion: The Barcelona Superblocks were estimated to help reduce harmful environmental exposures (i.e. air pollution, noise, and heat) while simultaneously increase PA levels and access to green space, and thereby provide substantial health benefits. For an equitable distribution of health benefits, the Superblocks should be implemented consistently across the entire city. Similar health benefits are expected for other cities that face similar challenges of environmental pollution, climate change vulnerability and low PA levels, by adopting the Barcelona Superblock model. ; We would like to thank Maria Foraster for helpful advice on the noise analyses and Glòria Carrasco for taking the pictures of the Sant Antoni Superblock. JB gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 727852 (project Blue-Action), 730004 (project PUCS) and 737480 (Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship ACCLIM). The climate-fit. city is developed as part of the PUCS project, which has received funding from the European Union's H2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 73004.