Suchergebnisse

La ricerca sugli effetti negativi del debito sulla crescita economica si è concentrata principalmente sui paesi a reddito medio (PRM) e paesi con accesso ai mercati finanziari, un gruppo PRM con accesso illimitato ai mercati internazionali dei capitali. La letteratura sugli effetti della volatilità macroeconomica sulla crescita, che si e' concentrata sui PRM, è stata sviluppata nel 1990. Un numero limitato di studi ha tentato di analizzare il legame tra debito e crescita in paesi a basso reddito. Questa raccolta di ricerche tenta di colmare questa lacuna, esaminando l'applicabilità del quadro concettuale che collega volatilita', debito e crescita ai paesi a basso reddito. In particolare, le ricerche si concentrano sul ruolo della politica fiscale in paesi a basso reddito, la sua pertinenza per raggiungere e mantenere la sostenibilità del debito ed evitare crisi con conseguenze negative protratte sulla crescita economica. I risultati indicano che le politiche fiscali nei paesi a basso reddito non hanno necessariamente un ruolo chiave nel garantire il rispetto del vincolo di bilancio intertemporale di governo e nel mantenere la sostenibilità del debito. Questo risultato è in netto contrasto con l'attuale ricerca economica sulla sostenibilità fiscale nei PRM e porta a diverse implicazioni per la condotta della politica economica in paesi a basso reddito. ; Research on the negative effect of debt on economic growth has mainly focused on middle income countries (MICs) and market access countries (MACs), the latter a group of MICs with unconstrained access to international capital markets. Literature on the effects of macroeconomic volatility on growth focusing on MICs was developed in the 1990's. Few studies have attempted to analyze the nexus between debt and growth in low income countries (LICs). This collection of papers attempts to fill this gap, by examining the applicability of the conceptual framework linking volatility, debt and growth to LICs. Specifically, the papers focus on the role of fiscal policy in LICs, its relevance for achieving and maintaining debt sustainability deterring economic crisis and excessive growth slumps. Results indicate that LICs fiscal policies do not necessarily play a key role in ensuring respect of the government intertemporal budget constraint and debt sustainability. This result is in stark contrast with existing economic research on fiscal sustainability in MICs leading to different implications for policy conducts in LICs.

Iraq needs a strategy to make rapid progress in tackling its profound jobs challenges. Iraq is facing a jobs crisis of unprecedented proportions. It could foment a resurgence in violence unless the Government of Iraq makes credible and swift progress in job creation and reconstruction. To shape a longer-term vision, Iraq can look beyond its recent history of conflict, and to its past as a diversified economy & home of an educated workforce. However, in the short-term, neither private/ public sector hiring can create jobs at the desired scale without significant new policy action. The first-best solution for large-scale private sector job creation hinges on structural reforms that must begin now, but are achievable only in the medium to longer term. This paper provides a primer on options to deliver large-scale job creation in the short term, based on investments in construction, agriculture and agribusiness, small & medium enterprises, and vocational skills. Its aim is to outline workable steps for progress in a jobs crisis in a post-conflict situation. Because these steps focus on rapid impact at scale, rather than structural reform, they are less-than-ideal or second-best. A similar logic applies to financing options. Financing needs for jobs are large, and while business climate reforms are under way, first-best private investment in jobs will remain limited. Yet, the recent oil price hike offers the Government of Iraq a uniquely timely opportunity to make an investment in jobs.