Suchergebnisse

The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis

This report presents a framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States. Using exploratory techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modelled