Suchergebnisse

Dedication -- A Report to the Club of Rome -- Advance Praise for The Seneca Effect -- Foreword -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter 1: Introduction: Collapse Is Not a Bug, It Is a Feature -- Chapter 2: The Mother of All Collapses: The Fall of Rome -- 2.1 Seneca and His Times -- 2.2 Whence Empires? -- 2.2.1 The Great Fall -- Chapter 3: Of Collapses Large and Small -- 3.1 The Breakdown of Everyday Things -- 3.1.1 Why Ships Don't Have Square Windows -- 3.1.1.1 Energy and Entropy -- 3.1.2 Why Balloons Pop -- 3.2 Avalanches -- 3.2.1 The Fall of the Great Towers -- 3.2.1.1 The Physics of the Hourglass -- 3.2.2 Networks -- 3.3 Financial Avalanches -- 3.3.1 Babylon Revisited -- 3.3.1.1 But What Is this "Money" Anyway? -- 3.3.1.2 Why Financial Collapses? -- 3.4 Famines -- 3.4.1 Malthus Was an Optimist -- 3.4.1.1 The Land of the Rising Sun -- 3.4.1.2 Famines to Come -- 3.5 Depletion -- 3.5.1 The Shortest-Lived Empire in History -- 3.5.2 Tiffany's Fallacy -- 3.5.2.1 Thanatia and the Mineral Eschatology -- 3.6 Overshoot -- 3.6.1 What's Good for the Bee, Is Good for the Hive -- 3.6.2 The Fall of the Galactic Empire -- 3.7 Gaia's Death: The Collapse of the Earth's Ecosystem -- 3.7.1 What Killed the Dinosaurs? -- 3.7.1.1 Gaia: the Earth Goddess -- 3.7.1.2 Hell on Earth -- Chapter 4: Managing Collapse -- 4.1 Avoiding Collapse -- 4.1.1 Fighting Overexploitation -- 4.1.2 Resilience -- 4.1.3 Returning from Collapse -- 4.1.4 Avoiding Financial Collapses -- 4.2 Exploiting Collapse -- 4.2.1 Hostile Collapses -- 4.2.2 Creative Collapsing -- 4.2.3 Pulling the Levers in the Right Direction -- Chapter 5: Conclusion -- Appendix: Mind-Sized World Models -- Figure Copyright Notes -- References -- Index

Most scenarios for the world's human population predict continued growth into the 22nd century, while some indicate that it could stabilize or begin to fall before 2100. Almost always, decline is seen as not being faster than the preceding growth. Different scenarios are obtained if we consider the human population as a complex system, subject to the general rules that govern complex systems, in particular their tendency to show rapid changes which – in the case of populations – may take the shape of true collapses (defined here as "Seneca Collapses"). The present survey examines a small number of examples of rapid population collapses in the human and in the animal domains. While not pretending to be exhaustive, the data presented here show that biological populations do show rapid "Seneca-style" collapses. So, it is possible that the same phenomenon could occur for the world's human population.

Foreword by the Co-presidents of the Club of Rome /Sandrine Dixon-Décleve, Mamphela Ramohele --Foreword /Daniel Pauly --Preface /Ilaria Perissi, Ugo Bardi --Chapter 1: Introduction --Chapter 2: The discovery of the sea --Chapter 3: The war against the sea --Chapter 4: The ruin of the sea --Chapter 5: How many fish in the sea? --Chapter 6: The future: the blue economy --Chapter 7: Conclusion: The horror that came to Sarnath.

"The Limits to Growth" (Meadows, 1972) generated unprecedented controversy with its predictions of the eventual collapse of the world's economies. First hailed as a great advance in science, 'The Limits to Growth' was subsequently rejected and demonized. However, with many national economies now at risk and global peak oil apparently a reality, the methods, scenarios, and predictions of 'The Limits to Growth' are in great need of reappraisal. In The Limits to Growth Revisited, Ugo Bardi examines both the science and the polemics surrounding this work, and in particular the reactions of economists that marginalized its methods and conclusions for more than 30 years. 'The Limits to Growth' was a milestone in attempts to model the future of our society, and it is vital today for both scientists and policy makers to understand its scientific basis, current relevance, and the social and political mechanisms that led to its rejection. Bardi also addresses the all-important question of whether the methods and approaches of 'The Limits to Growth' can contribute to an understanding of what happened to the global economy in the Great Recession and where we are headed from there.

Preface -- Part 1. Institutional Practices and Frameworks -- Chapter 1. Engaging Students and Campus Community in Sustainability Activities in a Major Canadian University -- Chapter 2. A Review of an Integrated Information System and Sustainability Implementation Framework in Higher Education -- Chapter 3. How the structures of a Green Campus promotes the development of sustainability competences. The experience of the University of Bologna -- Chapter 4. Generating a New Idea of Public Mission for Universities. A Sustainable Communication Paradigm for Community Building -- Chapter 5. Involving students in implementing a campus culture of sustainability, etc

Preface -- Part 1. Institutional Practices and Frameworks -- Chapter 1. Engaging Students and Campus Community in Sustainability Activities in a Major Canadian University -- Chapter 2. A Review of an Integrated Information System and Sustainability Implementation Framework in Higher Education -- Chapter 3. How the structures of a Green Campus promotes the development of sustainability competences. The experience of the University of Bologna -- Chapter 4. Generating a New Idea of Public Mission for Universities. A Sustainable Communication Paradigm for Community Building -- Chapter 5. Involving students in implementing a campus culture of sustainability, etc

Leben wir in einem Zeitalter, in dem alles kollabiert? Die Finanzmärkte, Europa, die Demokratie? Nichts scheint »heutzutage« mehr sicher. Doch war das früher anders? Sind große Reiche nicht schon immer viel schneller verschwunden als sie errichtet wurden und waren drastische Veränderungen nicht seit jeher eher Ergebnisse von Kipppunkten als von langsamen Prozessen? Ugo Bardi nennt dieses Phänomen den »Seneca Effekt«, weil der römische Gelehrte als erster verstanden hat, dass die Zerstörung gesellschaftlicher und natürlicher Systeme anderen Regeln gehorcht als deren Aufbau. Es ist das viel zitierte Fass, das sich nur langsam füllt, ehe es plötzlich überläuft; die Beobachtung des Ruins, der nur Tage braucht, während viele Leben notwendig sind, um sozialen Status zu erringen; oder der drohende Kollaps des Regenwaldes, der verschwindet, sobald bestimmte Grenzwerte überschritten sind. Wir tun also gut daran, den Kollaps auf der Rechnung zu haben, denn nur so können wir einen guten Umgang mit ihm finden, indem wir Gegenstrategien entwickeln oder uns an das Unvermeidliche anpassen. In einem wahren Parcoursritt durch die Disziplinen ist Bardi dem Kollaps auf der Spur - sowie den Gesetzen, die dahinter stecken. UGO BARDI lehrt Chemie an der Universität Florenz - seine Freizeit gehört der Suche nach rätselhaften Phänomenen und Geschichten. Besonders angetan hat es ihm der Stoiker Seneca und dessen Erkenntnis, dass es gemeinhin viel schneller bergab als bergauf geht. Darüber hinaus ist er Autor von »Der geplünderte Planet«, einem Bericht an den Club of Rome, und betreibt ein Blog namens Cassandra's Legacy.

The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within a Global Carbon Budget that limits the global temperature increase to less than 2 °C. With the Roadmap 2050 mitigation measures, the European Union has a target to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but without giving an estimation or a maximum ceiling for the total amount of cumulative greenhouse gases emissions over that period. Thus, the impact of the EU regulations on global warming remains unestimated. The aim and the novelty of this study are to develop a set of potential European emissions trajectories, within the Global Carbon Budget and at the same time satisfying the Roadmap 2050 goals. The result of the study highlights the urgency to reinforce mitigation measures for Europe as soon as possible because any delay in policy implementation risks the Roadmap 2050 mitigation package being insufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris treaty ; This work was supported by the MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 691287. The opinion expressed in the present work are those of the authors' only and are not to be attributed to any organisation of the European Union ; Peer reviewed