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Working paper
Individuals, institutions, and innovation in the debates of the French Revolution
How do democracies make decisions? We can read transcripts from parliament houses and legislative halls to see how particular ideas are introduced and debated, but we understand very little about the general principles of how these systems deal with information, or the origins of those principles. Here we study the parliamentary assembly of the first 2 years of the French Revolution, a model for democracies and revolutions across the globe, and show how patterns of speaking are created, picked up, and ignored or propagated. Political ideology, top–down rules, and individual charisma all affect how word patterns survive and thrive or, conversely, disappear and drop away.
BASE
Carbon Neutrality Should Not Be the End Goal: Lessons for Institutional Climate Action From U.S. Higher Education
Aggressive climate action pledges from governments, businesses and institutions have increasingly taken the form of commitments to net carbon neutrality. Higher education institutions (HEIs) are uniquely positioned to innovate in this area, and over 800 U.S. colleges and universities have pledged to achieve net carbon neutrality. Eleven leading U.S. HEIs have already attained this status. Here, we examine their approaches to achieving net carbon neutrality, highlighting risks associated with treating emissions reduction approaches such as carbon offsets, renewable energy certificates, and bioenergy as best practice in isolation from broader policy frameworks. While pursuing net carbon neutrality has led to important institutional shifts toward sustainability, the mix of approaches used by HEIs is out of alignment with a broader U.S. decarbonization roadmap; in aggregate, these carbon neutral schools underutilize electrification and new zero-carbon electricity. We conclude by envisioning how HEIs can refocus climate mitigation efforts towards decarbonization (with net carbon neutrality as a possible milestone), with an emphasis on actions that will help shift policy and markets at larger scales.
BASE
What Does it Take to Reduce Massachusetts Emissions 50% by 2030? Challenges Meeting Climate Goals Under Current Legislation (S.2500)
Executive Summary: To do its part in the global fight against climate change, Massachusetts must achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, and aggressive intermediate goals are essential to ensure that the state is on track for net zero. Senate bill 2500, "An Act setting next generation climate policy," stipulates that 2030 emissions must "not be less than 50% below the 1990 emissions level." In 2017, Massachusetts carbon dioxide emissions were 22% below 1990 levels, so the state will need to reduce annual emissions by an additional 28% of 1990 levels by 2030. If enacted, S.2500 would give the state important new tools that would significantly reduce emissions. However, our analysis suggests that additional policies beyond those in S.2500 will likely be necessary to reliably achieve the 2030 goal of cutting emissions in half from 1990 levels. With no new policies enacted (but not accounting for COVID-19), we estimate that 2030 emissions will be roughly 35% below 1990 levels (Figure 1, BAU). We use a range of policy proposals to approximate the key policies in S.2500: the Transportation and Climate Initiative cap and invest program, a net zero stretch building code, and a moderate carbon price ($29/MT rising to $48 in 2030—roughly similar to one in a recent legislative proposal) in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. We use published modeling results to approximate these policies and estimate that they would reduce emissions by an additional 6% below 1990 levels (~41%). This leaves an emissions reductions shortfall of ~9% (or 8 million metric tons of CO2, roughly the equivalent of 1.7 million passenger vehicles) in 2030 (see Fig. 1). To reach a 50% reduction by 2030, Massachusetts could implement a higher carbon price (e.g. $58/MT rising to $95 by 2030), which would be possible under S.2500. Some (but not all) models suggest that a higher carbon price alone would be sufficient to reach 50% of 1990 levels by 2030. Another option (not in S.2500) is to enact an ambitious clean electricity standard to reduce electricity emissions. To ensure we reach the 2030 goal, robust policies will be needed in all major sectors of the state's economy, with electricity sector decarbonization particularly important (Fig. 1, Stringent case).
BASE
Carbon Pricing Approaches for Climate Decisions in U.S. Higher Education: Proxy Carbon Prices for Deep Decarbonization
Given the slow policy response by governments, climate leadership by other institutions has become an essential part of maintaining policy momentum, driving innovation, and fostering social dialogue. Despite growth in carbon pricing in government and the private sector, our review suggests low, but growing, adoption of internal carbon prices (ICPs) by higher education institutions (HEIs), who may be uniquely suited to implement and refine these tools. We analyze the range of ICP tools in use by eleven U.S. HEIs and discuss tradeoffs. Our analysis identifies several reasons why proxy carbon prices may be especially well-suited to decisions (especially at the system-scale) around carbon neutrality at a wide range of institutions. Using a unique dataset covering 10 years of real-world analysis with a proxy carbon price, we analyze the interaction of ICPs with life cycle cost analysis to start to identify when and how internal carbon pricing will be most likely to shift decisions. We discuss how schools and other institutions can collaborate and experiment with these tools to help drive good climate decision-making and inform climate policy at larger scales.
BASE
Carbon pricing approaches for climate decisions in U.S. higher education: Proxy carbon prices for deep decarbonization
Given the slow policy response by governments, climate leadership by other institutions has become an essential part of maintaining policy momentum, driving innovation, and fostering social dialogue. Despite growth in carbon pricing in government and the private sector, our review suggests low, but growing, adoption of internal carbon prices (ICPs) by higher education institutions (HEIs), who may be uniquely suited to implement and refine these tools. We analyze the range of ICP tools in use by eleven U.S. HEIs and discuss tradeoffs. Our analysis identifies several reasons why proxy carbon prices may be especially well-suited to decisions (especially at the system-scale) around carbon neutrality at a wide range of institutions. Using a unique dataset covering 10 years of real-world analysis with a proxy carbon price, we analyze the interaction of ICPs with life cycle cost analysis to start to identify when and how internal carbon pricing will be most likely to shift decisions. We discuss how schools and other institutions can collaborate and experiment with these tools to help drive good climate decision-making and inform climate policy at larger scales.
BASE