Suchergebnisse

In this paper a baseline scenario related to Biobased Plastic (BBP) sector in the EU is developed and evaluated. The current BBP focal issues and existing measures in place in the EU are implemented in a business as usual (BAU) baseline. To provide a more compressive assessment, these issues and measures are then analyzed in the context of assumptions regarding the future of the EU (2040) including trends on demography, innovation, productivity and economic growth, and other related EU policy measures. For this, we use the 'Middle Road' scenario from the IPCC-based Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, MAGNET model from WR integrated modelling toolbox is used to project a BAU evolution of the BBP sector in the EU and the expected sustainability towards 2050.

Advanced uses of biomass for bioenergy and biochemicals are being gradually introduced and are expected to grow considerably in regional economies, thus raising questions on their mid-term macro-economic impacts. To assess these impacts, we use a computable general equilibrium model and a regional energy systems model side-by-side. The former is extended with new sectors of lignocellulosic biofuels, bioelectricity, biochemicals, lignocellulosic biomass supply and tradeable pellets. Next to 1st generation biofuels and other renewable energy supply, the economic impacts of bioeconomy are assessed for technology development and trade openness scenarios. We demonstrate the macro-economic model by assessing developments of the Dutch bioeconomy in 2030. Under rapid technical growth and trade openness, the models consistently show increased biomass consumption and supply of bioenergy and biochemicals from lignocellulose through large-scale deployment of advanced biomass conversion technologies. Traditional fossil-based sectors are replaced by biomass, which brings additional macro-economic benefits on gross domestic product (0.8 bn(sic) a(-1)) and value added (0.7 bn(sic) a(-1)). Furthermore, it reduces projected decline in trade balance (0.7 bn(sic) a(-1)) and employment (2.5-4.5%) compared to low technology development. Extending the temporal scope to beyond 2030 may demonstrate additional macro-economic benefits of bioeconomy. This requires assessing the influence of improvements in the agricultural sector that may lower biomass prices, learning and other developments of promising biomass conversion technologies in the longer term. Uncertain fossil fuel and CO2 price developments necessitate additional sensitivity analysis.

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios ("World Markets," "National Enterprise," "Global Sustainability" and "Local Stewardship") were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the "regionalization" of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

One of the most important goals in current fisheries management is to maintain or restore stocks above levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, it may not be feasible to achieve MSY simultaneously for multiple species because of trade-offs that result from interactions between species, mixed fisheries and the multiple objectives of stakeholders. The premise in this study is that MSY is a concept that needs adaptation, not wholesale replacement. The approach chosen to identify trade-offs and stakeholder preferences involved a process of consulting and discussing options with stakeholders as well as scenario modelling with bio-economic and multi-species models. It is difficult to intuitively anticipate the consequences of complex trade-offs and it is also complicated to address them from a political point of view. However, scenario modelling showed that the current approach of treating each stock separately and ignoring trade-offs may result in unacceptable ecosystem, economic or social effects in North Sea fisheries. Setting FMSY as a management target without any flexibility for compromises may lead to disappointment for some of the stakeholders. To treat FMSY no longer as a point estimate but rather as a "Pretty Good Yield" within sustainable ranges was seen as a promising way forward to avoid unacceptable outcomes when trying to fish all stocks simultaneously at FMSY. This study gives insights on how inclusive governance can help to reach consensus in difficult political processes, and how science can be used to make informed decisions inside a multi-dimensional trade-off space.