Forests across the world stand at a crossroads where climate and land-use changes are shaping their future. Despite demonstrations of political will and global efforts, forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation continue unabated. No clear evidence exists to suggest that these initiatives are working. A key reason for this apparent ineffectiveness could lie in the failure to recognize the agency of all stakeholders involved. Landscapes do not happen. We shape them. Forest transitions are social and behavioral before they are ecological. Decision makers need to integrate better representations of people's agency in their mental models. A possible pathway to overcome this barrier involves eliciting mental models behind policy decisions to allow better representation of human agency, changing perspectives to better understand divergent points of view, and refining strategies through explicit theories of change. Games can help decision makers in all of these tasks.
Forests across the world stand at a crossroads where climate and land-use changes are shaping their future. Despite demonstrations of political will and global efforts, forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation continue unabated. No clear evidence exists to suggest that these initiatives are working. A key reason for this apparent ineffectiveness could lie in the failure to recognize the agency of all stakeholders involved. Landscapes do not happen. We shape them. Forest transitions are social and behavioral before they are ecological. Decision makers need to integrate better representations of people's agency in their mental models. A possible pathway to overcome this barrier involves eliciting mental models behind policy decisions to allow better representation of human agency, changing perspectives to better understand divergent points of view, and refining strategies through explicit theories of change. Games can help decision makers in all of these tasks.
Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity. ; This paper is a product of the RAINFOR, AfriTRON and T-FORCES networks, for which we are hugely indebted to hundreds of institutions, field assistants and local communities across many countries that have hosted fieldwork. The three networks have been supported by a European Research Council (ERC) grant ("T-FORCES" - Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (283080, 'GEOCARBON'; 282664, 'AMAZALERT'), and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Urgency Grants and NERC Consortium Grants 'AMAZONICA' (NE/F005806/1) and 'TROBIT' (NE/D005590/1), 'BIO-RED' (NE/N012542/1) and a NERC New Investigators Grant, the Royal Society, the Centre for International Forestry (CIFOR) and Gabon's National Parks Agency (ANPN). Additional data were included from the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, a collaboration between Conservation International, the Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian Institution and the Wildlife Conservation Society, and partly funded by these institutions, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and other donors. J.T. was supported by a NERC PhD Studentship with CASE sponsorship from UNEP-WCMC. R.J.W.B. is funded by a NERC research fellowship (grant ref: NE/I021160/1). S.L.L. was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship, ERC Advanced Grant (T-FORCES) and a Phillip Leverhulme Prize. O.L.P. is supported by an ERC Advanced Grant (T-FORCES) and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. L.F.B. was supported by a NERC studentship and RGS-IBG Henrietta Hutton Grant. We thank the National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil (CNPq) for support to Project Cerrado/Amazonia Transition (PELD/403725/2012-7), Project Phytogeography of Amazonia/Cerrado Transition (CNPq/PPBio/457602/2012-0) and Productivity Grant to B.S.M and B.H.M-J. Funding for plots in the Udzungwa Mountains (Tanzania) was obtained from the Leverhulme Trust under the Valuing the Arc project. We thank the ANPN (Gabon), WCS-Congo and WCS-DR Congo, Marien Ngouabi University and the University of Kisangani for logistical support in Africa, and the Tropenbos Kalimantan project (ITCI plots) and WWF (KUB plots) for providing data from Asia. This study is contribution number 706 to the Technical Series (TS) of the BDFFP – (INPA-STRI). For assistance with access to datasets we thank Adriana Prieto, Agustín Rudas, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Alexander G. Parada Gutierrez, Anand Roopsind, Atila Alves de Oliveira, Claudinei Oliveira dos Santos, C. E. Timothy Paine, David Neill, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Hannsjoerg Woell, Iêda Leão do Amaral, Irina Mendoza Polo, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Julien Engel, Kathryn Jeffery, Luzmila Arroyo, Michael D. Swaine, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Natalino Silva, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Niro Higuchi, Raquel Thomas, Renske van Ek, Richard Condit, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy J. Killeen, Walter A. Palacios, Wendeson Castro. We thank Georgina Mace and Jon Lloyd for comments on the manuscript. We thank our deceased colleagues, Samuel Almeida, Kwaku Duah, Alwyn Gentry, and Sandra Patiño, for their invaluable contributions to this work and our wider understanding of tropical forest ecology.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1714977115/-/DCSupplemental. ; Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world's tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world's tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 660020, Instituto Bem Ambiental (IBAM), Myr Projetos Sustentáveis, IEF, and CNPq, CAPES FAPEMIG, German Research Foundation (DFG; Grants CRC 552, CU127/3-1, HO 3296/2-2, HO3296/4-1, and RU 816), UNAM-PAPIIT IN218416 and Semarnat-CONACYT 128136, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnoloógico (CNPq, Brazil), Fundação Grupo Boticário de Proteção à Natureza/Brazil, PAPIIT-DGAPA-UNAM (Project IN-204215), National Geographic Society, National Foundation for Scientific and Technology Development Vietnam (Grant 106.11-2010.68), Operation Wallacea, and core funding for Crown Research Institutes from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Science and Innovation Group. ; Peer-reviewed ; Publisher Version