Accounting For Violent Conflict Risk In Planetary Defense Decisions
In: Acta Astronautica, vol. 178 (January), pages 15-23, 2020
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In: Acta Astronautica, vol. 178 (January), pages 15-23, 2020
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In: Forthcoming, Philosophy & Technology, DOI 10.1007/s13347-020-00416-5
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In: Futures, vol. 123 (October 2020), article 102608, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102608
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Working paper
In: AI & Society, Band 35, Heft 1 (March 2020)
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In: In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), 2016, The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.
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In: Contemporary Security Policy, Band 36, Heft 2 (August)
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In: Futures, Band 72 (September)
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In: Contemporary Security Policy, Band 36, Heft 1 (April)
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In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 42, Heft 9, S. 2122-2124
ISSN: 1539-6924
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 123, S. 102608
In: Philosophy & technology, Band 34, Heft S1, S. 45-63
ISSN: 2210-5441
In: Metascience: an international review journal for the history, philosophy and social studies of science, Band 29, Heft 2, S. 313-317
ISSN: 1467-9981
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 39, Heft 11, S. 2427-2442
ISSN: 1539-6924
AbstractTo prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.
In: Futures, Band 90, S. 61-63