Suchergebnisse

Reviews the progress and character of the 1993 federal election and introduces a special issue examining the election. Also considers the nature of Australian electoral studies in the 1990s. (Original abstract-amended)

IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE GOOD GROUNDS FOR ASSUMING THAT 1993 WAS AN EXCEPTION TO THE RULE THAT ISSUES DEBATED IN AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS DO NOT GENERALLY HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON ELECTORAL CHOICE. THE INCUMBENT GOVERNMENT WAS BESET BY A POOR ECONOMIC RECORD, INCLUDING A RECESSION AND RECORD LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT. THE OPPOSITION USED THE HIGHLY UNUSUAL STRATEGY OF ADVANCING ITS OWN AGENDA OF RADICAL ECONOMIC REFORMS--MOST PROMINENTLY, THE GOODS AND SERVICES TAX AND PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS SYSTEM. ISSUES RELATING TO HEALTH CARE, FAMILY SUPPORT, AND CHILD CARE ALSO FEATURED PROMINENTLY IN THE CAMPAIGN, AND THE QUESTION WAS FREQUENTLY RAISED AS TO WHETHER WOMEN AND MEN WOULD RESPOND DIFFERENTLY ON SUCH MATTERS. THIS PAPER ANALYZES THE IMPACT OF THESE AND OTHER CAMPAIGN ISSUES ON VOTING IN THE 1993 ELECTION AND FINDS THAT CERTAIN ISSUES DID HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, ESPECIALLY AMONG FLOATING VOTERS, WHERE THE LABOR PARTY HAD A DECIDED ADVANTAGE.

THE AUTHOR USES LONGITUDINAL SAMPLE SURVEY DATA TO EVALUATE THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BASES OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES ON THE MONARCHY-REPUBLIC ISSUE IN AUSTRALIA. THE DATA INDICATE THAT PROPONENTS OF A REFERENDUM TO TRANSFORM AUSTRALIA INTO A REPUBLIC HAVE AN UPHILL BATTLE IN FRONT OF THEM IN THE SHORT TERM. ONE FACTOR THAT WOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR A REFERENDUM TO SUCCEED IS A STRONG PARTISAN DIVISION ON THE ISSUE. HOWEVER, COHORT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A SOLID REPUBLICAN MAJORITY WILL EMERGE OVER TIME.

Analyses new data from the 1987 Australian National Social Science Survey which demonstrate that the personal vote is a significant factor in federal lower house elections even when numerous other variables known to influence voting behaviour are controlled for. Tests for varying levels of personal voting in safe and marginal seats, Labor and coalition seats, urban and rural seats and according to the length of time the incumbent has been in office. (Abstract amended)