Suchergebnisse

SummaryFrom matched birth and census records in the Matlab area of Bangladesh, monthly fertility rates for the period 1970–74 are studied for seasonal patterns by age and parity. Trigonometric regression techniques are used to summarize and compare the multiple series. Pronounced seasonal patterns are apparent for all age and parity groups. The general fertility rate peaks in December with a seasonal variation of 42% above and below the mean level. For younger women at low parities the peak is in late October, while for older women of higher parity it is in January. The shift progresses linearly with age and parity though the age effect is the more pronounced. A seasonal pattern of fecundability which varies by age group could explain the shift.

This paper presents the results of a 2011 wager between Stan Becker and David Lam about the trajectory of world food prices for the period 2011–2020 versus the period 2002–2010. The wager was a response to Lam's 2011 presidential address to the Population Association of America, which showed that many health and socio-demographic indicators had improved over the previous fifty years, in spite of the addition of four billion people to the world's population. Lam lost the wager, with the Food and Agriculture Organization's price index for five food groups averaging about twenty per cent higher for 2011–2020 than for 2001–2010. Becker and Lam discuss the background of the wager, give their differing interpretations of the outcome and discuss future trends in population, food production and food prices. Lam gives a more optimistic perspective on future trends, while Becker raises concerns about rapid degradation of planetary ecosystems, species loss and global warming.

AbstractA proportion of women in couples use contraception without their partners' knowledge. There are two principal ways to measure this covert use in cross‐sectional surveys like the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). First is a direct question, "Does your husband/partner know that you are using a method of family planning?" Second is an indirect method: the reports of both partners to the question on contraceptive use are matched, and if the woman reports a modern contraceptive method and the male partner reports nonuse, her use is considered covert. For 21 DHS surveys for which both estimates could be made, there are large discrepancies between the two. We found that a proxy variable—responses to the question, "Would you say that using contraception is mainly your decision, mainly your husband's/partner's decision, or did you both decide together?"—has high sensitivity and specificity for classifying those in the open category for both methods and those in the covert category for both methods. Recommendations are that the direct question be reinstated in the DHS and that the indirect method not be used by itself but in conjunction with the decision‐making variable.

Unmet need for family planning is typically calculated for currently married women, but excluding husbands may result in misleading estimates of couples' unmet need. This study builds on previous work and proposes a method of calculating couples' unmet need for family planning based on spouses' independent fertility intentions. We analyze Demographic and Health Survey data from couples from three West African countries—Benin, Burkina Faso, and Mali. We find that fewer than half of couples having any unmet need had concordant unmet need (41–49 percent). A similar percentage of couples had wife‐only unmet need (33–40 percent). A smaller percentage had husband‐only unmet need (15–23 percent). Calculating unmet need based only on women's fertility intentions overestimates concordant unmet need. Additionally, that approximately 15–23 percent of couples have husband‐only unmet need suggests that men could be an entry point for contraceptive use for more couples than at present. To calculate husbands' unmet need, population‐based surveys should consider collecting the necessary data consistently.

SummaryExamining waiting time to birth among newlywed couples is likely to provide insights into the desire for spacing births among newlywed husbands and wives. Data from the Indian National Family Health Survey of 2005–06 are used to examine the desired waiting time (DWT) to birth among newlywed couples. The dependent variable is spousal concordance on desired waiting times. Overall 65% of couples have concordant desired waiting times. Among discordant couples, wives were more likely to want to wait longer than their husbands. Couples from richer wealth quintiles were more likely than couples from the poorest quintile to have concordant desired waiting times. Muslims were less likely than Hindus to have concordant desires. There is a need for spacing contraceptive methods among newlyweds in India. This may have implications for the Indian Family Planning Programme, which to date has largely focused on sterilization. Programmes need to include newlywed husbands to promote use of spacing methods.

Many Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the past decade have queried husbands and wives about their current contraceptive use. In this study, couples' concurrence on use and method used is compared by means of data from 23 countries, mostly in sub‐Saharan Africa. Husbands report higher levels of use than do their wives in every country studied, with ranges from 2 percent higher (Brazil) to 150 percent higher (Mali). Many of the discrepancies are the result of husbands' sole reports of periodic abstinence and condom use. Couples with polygynous husbands show less concurrence than do monogamous couples, although the majority of these differences could result from a data‐collection problem. Monogamous couples in which one or both spouses reported having extramarital sex partners show less concurrence than do monogamous couples reporting no other partners. Problems of validity of both husbands' and wives' reports are discerned, and in the few instances where a direct comparison is possible, wives' reports are shown to have greater validity. Logistic regression results show that spousal discussion about family planning and greater female education are consistent predictors of concurrence.

SummaryThe accuracy of responses to a question on the frequency of sexual intercourse in the 4-week period prior to an interview is expected to be low. This paper examines the reliability of an alternative question: 'How many days since you last had sexual intercourse?'. This was a part of a larger longitudinal study of fertility dynamics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The response pairs of 61 women who were asked the same question by an interviewer and on the next day by a supervisor, were analysed. Refusals were more common among older women and among women who gave a response at the extremes of the distribution for the other interview. Of the pairs of two responses, 78% had a difference of 3 days or less. Further study and use of the question on days since last intercourse is recommended.