Die Inflation in der russischen Wirtschaft ist durch einige qualitative Besonderheiten charakterisiert. Nach Ansicht der Autoren der vorliegenden Bewertung dominiert die Inflation der Ausgaben die der Nachfrage, resp. die monetäre Inflation. Die verschiedenen Aspekte werden daher konkret analysiert; besonderes Augenmerk gilt dabei den Besonderheiten der geldmengenbedingten Inflation. (BIOst-Rgl)
The crisis that the global economy faced in 2020 has no historical counterparts. However, this does not mean that the experience of overcoming previous economic cataclysms in the current situation is useless. History shows that a crisis can become a long stop on the path of economic development of a country or, on the contrary, give an impetus to its acceleration. Within the framework of the XXII April international academic conference of HSE University and Sberbank (Moscow, April 13—30, 2021), a roundtable was held on lessons in the field of economic, social, domestic, technological policy that can be learned from the crises of the past and are useful in the context of recovering from the current recession. The roundtable became a part of the project "The experience of overcoming the crises of the last century and its lessons for the present", implemented by the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of HSE University in 2020—2021. Its participants were asked the following questions: which crises over the past century most resemble the current economic crisis; what lessons in the field of economic, social, domestic policy, institutional development can be learned from the crises of the past to overcome the current economic situation; can the crisis give the country an opportunity to move to a higher level of development?
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of "coronacrisis", and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.
Für die hier entworfenen drei Szenarien einer wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Rußlands werden die taktischen Ziele vorgestellt, das Inflationstempo, die Konsolidierung des Haushalts und das Produktionswachstum betreffend. Weiter stellen die Verfasser die auftretenden Schwierigkeiten dar, die einer Realisierung dieser Ziele im Wege stehen und berechnen die jeweiligen makroökonomischen Kennziffern sowie das Inflationsniveau zum Ende des Jahres. Ferner werden die diversen politischen Probleme skizziert, die eine konsequente Durchführung behindern; die einzelnen Szenarien werden den entsprechenden politischen Gruppierungen zugeordnet, die diese stützen. (BIOst-Rgl)
