Suchergebnisse

Abstract Background: The disease or mortality burdens of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are often reported. The positive side of the story, the burden that existing levels have averted, is rarely discussed. We present what we believe to be global application of the Prevented Fraction for the Population to obtain estimates of the percentage of premature mortality and number of premature deaths averted by total physical activity levels for 168 countries. Methods: We combined previously published activity prevalence data (2001-2016) and relative risks of mortality in Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate country-specific Prevented Fractions for the Population (percentage of mortality averted) and their 95% confidence intervals. Higher Prevented Fractions indicate a greater proportion of deaths averted due to physical activity. Using mortality data for 40-74 year olds, we estimated the number of premature deaths averted due to activity levels for all adults and by sex. We presented the median and range of the Prevented Fractions globally, by region, and by income classification. Results: The global median Prevented Fraction for the Population was 15.0% (range 6.6-20.5%), conservatively equating to 3.9 million (95% confidence interval: 2.5-5.6) premature deaths averted annually. The African region had the highest median (16.6%, range 12.1-20.5%), the Americas had the lowest (13.1%, range 10.8-16.6%). Low income countries tended to have higher median Prevented Fractions (17.9%, range 12.3-20.5%) than high income countries (14.1%, range 6.6-17.8%). Globally, the median Prevented Fraction was higher for men than women (16.0% (range 7.8-20.7% and 14.1% (range 5.0-20.4%), respectively). Interpretation: Existing physical activity levels have contributed to averting premature mortality across all countries. The Prevented Fraction for the Population has utility as an advocacy tool to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours as, by making the case of what has been achieved, it could demonstrate the value of current investment and services. This may be more conducive to political support. ; TS, SJS, and SB are funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/3). DD is funded by a Future Leader Fellowship by Heart Foundation Australia (No. 101234). At the time of this work, MT was a member of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (MR/K023187/1), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UKClinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. MT was also funded on the METAHIT project (Medical Research Council grant MR/P02663X/1).

BACKGROUND: Disease and mortality burdens of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are often reported. In contrast, the positive narrative around the burdens that an existing behaviour have averted is rarely acknowledged. We aimed to estimate the prevented fraction for the population (PFP) for premature mortality averted by physical activity on a global scale. METHODS: In this descriptive study, we obtained previously published data on physical activity prevalence (2001–16) and relative risks of all-cause mortality for 168 countries. We combined the data in Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate country-specific, mean PFP values, corresponding to percentage of mortality averted, and their 95% CIs. High prevented fractions indicated an increased proportion of deaths averted due to physical activity. Using mortality data for all people in a country aged 40–74 years, we estimated the number of premature deaths averted for all adults and by gender. We present the median and range of the prevented fractions globally, by WHO region, and by World Bank income classification. FINDINGS: The global median PFP was 15·0% (range 6·6–20·5), conservatively equating to 3·9 million (95% CI 2·5–5·6) premature deaths averted annually. The African region had the highest median prevented fraction (16·6% [range 12·1–20·5]) and the Americas had the lowest (13·1% [10·8–16·6]). Low-income countries tended to have higher prevented fractions (group median 17·9% [12·3–20·5]) than high-income countries (14·1% [6·6–17·8]). Globally, the median prevented fraction was higher for men (16·0% [7·8–20·7] than women (14·1% [5·0–20·4]). INTERPRETATION: Existing physical activity prevalence has contributed to averting premature mortality across all countries. PFP has utility as an advocacy tool to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours. By making the case of what has been achieved, the prevented fraction can show the value of current investment and services, which might be conducive to political support. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart ...