Suchergebnisse

For the last fifty years, every US Presidency has come to be defined by momentous events in the Arab world. This pattern also applies to Donald Trump, whose approach to the region is shaped by the preference for reduced military exposure and a break with his predecessor's policies as well as a general deference and even admiration for authoritarian personalities and systems. The result has been a policy mishmash which offers disruption where continuity is required and continuity where disruption is needed. Trump's policies are thus likely to exacerbate the region's security crises at the inter-state and intra-state levels.

The Arab Spring and the short-lived political ascendancy of Islamist movements reignited the debate about what greater popular participation in foreign policy decision-making would entail for the prospects of peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Building on the developing body of individual-level investigations into the Democratic Peace thesis and contributing to the wider debate about the relationship between peace and democracy in the Middle East, this paper utilizes 2010–2011 Arab Barometer data to establish the determinants of public support for a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict across the Arab world. The results reveal that emancipative political values such as support for gender equality and secularism help predict greater support for peace with Israel. These findings demonstrate that contrary to the claims of skeptics, democratization and peace can reinforce each other in the Arab world.

The Arab Spring and the short-lived political ascendancy of Islamist movements reignited the debate about what greater popular participation in foreign policy decision-making would entail for the prospects of peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Building on the developing body of individual-level investigations into the Democratic Peace thesis and contributing to the wider debate about the relationship between peace and democracy in the Middle East, this paper utilizes 2010–2011 Arab Barometer data to establish the determinants of public support for a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict across the Arab world. The results reveal that emancipative political values such as support for gender equality and secularism help predict greater support for peace with Israel. These findings demonstrate that contrary to the claims of skeptics, democratization and peace can reinforce each other in the Arab world.

This analysis uses survey data representing three of the world's most populous Muslim majority countries to challenge conventional wisdom on what shapes Muslim public opinion on political violence against the United States. It improves previous analysis by clearly distinguishing support for violence against civilians from support for violence against military targets and by featuring independent variables that clearly separate views on US foreign policies from views on US culture. Logistic regression shows that, among Egyptian, Pakistani and Indonesian Muslims, perceptions of controversial US policies toward Israel, Middle Eastern oil, or the perceived attempt to weaken and divide the Muslim world are not related to support for attacks on civilians in the United States, but only to support for attacks on US military targets. Approval of attacks on US civilians is shaped, instead, by negative views of US freedom of expression, culture, and people, disapproval of the domestic political status quo and the notion of general US hostility toward democracy in the Middle East. This last finding has important implications for US and Western policies toward the post-Arab Spring Middle East in particular and the broader relationship with the Muslim World in general.