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Abstract
We use European Union Labour Force Survey data for the period 2005–2018 to investigate the cyclicality of training in Europe. Consistent with the view that firms use recessions as times to update skills, we find that training participation is moderately countercyclical for the employed. Within the not-employed group, this is true also for the unemployed, who are likely to be involved in public training programs during recessions, but not for the inactive, who may be affected by liquidity constraints.

We use European Union Labour Force Survey data for the period 2005-2018 to investigate the cyclicality of training in Europe. Consistent with the view that firms use recessions as times to update skills, we find that training participation is moderately countercyclical for the employed. Within the not-employed group, this is true also for the unemployed, who are likely to be involved in public training programs during recessions, but not for the inactive, who may be affected by liquidity constraints.

SUMMARYPension reforms rising minimum retirement age force some senior workers to retire later than originally expected. We evaluate the impact of a 2011 Italian reform, implemented during a recession, on youth and prime-age employment. Our research design is based on difference-in-differences and exploits the variations in the intensity of the treatment across local labour markets due to differences in the age structure of the population. We estimate that, for any 1,000 local senior workers locked into employment by the reform, local youth and prime-age employment declined by 273 (−0.86%) and 199 (−0.12%) workers, and senior employment increased by 833 (+2.70%) individuals. The estimated reduction in youth employment is broadly similar to the one induced by earlier reforms, implemented when the economy was growing. We estimate that an important part of the total employment change induced by the 2011 reform is due to higher firm turnover.

Aims Social scientists have postulated that the discrepancy between achievements and expectations affects individuals' subjective well-being. Still, little has been done to qualify and quantify such a psychological effect. Our empirical analysis assesses the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors—the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being—on the subsequent level of subjective well-being. Data We use longitudinal data on a representative sample of 13,431 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel. In our sample, 52% of individuals are females, average age is 43 years, average years of education is 11.4 and 27% of our sample lives in East Germany. Subjective well-being (measured by self-reported life satisfaction) is assessed on a 0–10 discrete scale and its sample average is equal to 6.75 points. Methods We develop a simple theoretical framework to assess the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors—the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being—on the subsequent level of subjective well-being, properly accounting for the endogenous adjustment of expectations to positive and negative affective forecasting errors, and use it to derive testable predictions. Given the theoretical framework, we estimate two panel-data equations, the first depicting the association between positive and negative affective forecasting errors and the successive level of subjective well-being and the second describing the correlation between subjective well-being expectations for the future and hedonic failures and successes. Our models control for individual fixed effects and a large battery of time-varying demographic characteristics, health and socio-economic status. Results and conclusions While surpassing expectations is uncorrelated with subjective well-being, failing to match expectations is negatively associated with subsequent realizations of subjective well-being. Expectations are positively (negatively) correlated to positive (negative) forecasting errors. We speculate that in the first case the positive adjustment in expectations is strong enough to cancel out the potential positive effects on subjective well-being of beaten expectations, while in the second case it is not, and individuals persistently bear the negative emotional consequences of not achieving expectations. ; Aims Social scientists have postulated that the discrepancy between achievements and expectations affects individuals' subjective well-being. Still, little has been done to qualify and quantify such a psychological effect. Our empirical analysis assesses the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors—the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being—on the subsequent level of subjective well-being. Data We use longitudinal data on a representative sample of 13,431 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel. In our sample, 52% of individuals are females, average age is 43 years, average years of education is 11.4 and 27% of our sample lives in East Germany. Subjective well-being (measured by self-reported life satisfaction) is assessed on a 0–10 discrete scale and its sample average is equal to 6.75 points. Methods We develop a simple theoretical framework to assess the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors—the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being—on the subsequent level of subjective well-being, properly accounting for the endogenous adjustment of expectations to positive and negative affective forecasting errors, and use it to derive testable predictions. Given the theoretical framework, we estimate two panel-data equations, the first depicting the association between positive and negative affective forecasting errors and the successive level of subjective well-being and the second describing the correlation between subjective well-being expectations for the future and hedonic failures and successes. Our models control for individual fixed effects and a large battery of time-varying demographic characteristics, health and socio-economic status. Results and conclusions While surpassing expectations is uncorrelated with subjective well-being, failing to match expectations is negatively associated with subsequent realizations of subjective well-being. Expectations are positively (negatively) correlated to positive (negative) forecasting errors. We speculate that in the first case the positive adjustment in expectations is strong enough to cancel out the potential positive effects on subjective well-being of beaten expectations, while in the second case it is not, and individuals persistently bear the negative emotional consequences of not achieving expectations.

SUMMARY
We study how demand responds to the rebranding of existing state schools as autonomous 'academies' in the context of a radical and large-scale reform to the English education system. The academy programme encouraged schools to opt out of local state control and funding, but provided parents and students with limited information on the expected benefits. We use administrative data on school applications for three cohorts of students to estimate whether this rebranding changes schools' relative popularity. We find that families – particularly higher income, White British – are more likely to rank converted schools above non-converted schools on their applications. We also find that it is mainly schools that are high-performing, popular and proximate to families' homes that attract extra demand after conversion. Overall, the patterns we document suggest that families read academy conversion as a signal of future quality gains – although this signal is in part misleading as we find limited evidence that conversion causes improved performance.

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze the impact of paternal unemployment on the "big five" personality traits of young adult offspring aged 17–25. Results from longitudinal value-added models for personality show that paternal unemployment makes offspring significantly more conscientious and—to a smaller extent—less neurotic. The uncovered effects are robust to the presence of selection on unobservables and correlation between the error term and the lagged outcome.We also discuss heterogeneous effects and the potential mechanisms behind our findings. ; Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze the impact of paternal unemployment on the big five personality traits of young adult offspring aged 17-25. Results from longitudinal value-added models for personality show that paternal unemployment makes offspring significantly more conscientious andto a smaller extentless neurotic. The uncovered effects are robust to the presence of selection on unobservables and correlation between the error term and the lagged outcome. We also discuss heterogeneous effects and the potential mechanisms behind our findings.