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AbstractPrevious research has shown that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are beneficial for democratization. However, research to date has not considered whether nonviolent revolutions succeed long term in bringing about democratic consolidation. In this paper, I address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on democratic consolidation, using data on Huntington's consolidation criteria of two peaceful turnovers of power. The results suggest that initiating a democratic transition through NVR is not necessarily beneficial for achieving the first peaceful turnover of power. However, given that a democratic regime achieved a successful first turnover of power, NVR substantially increases the probability of completing democratic consolidation through a second peaceful turnover of power.

Cultural bias means individuals judge and interpret a phenomenon according to values that are inherent in their own culture. The same event may be perceived differently by individuals with different cultural backgrounds. This study systematically tests for the presence of cultural differences in the perception of foreign policy events. Using a web survey with a split-sample of Chinese and US foreign policy experts, four domains of foreign policy are explored: sanctions; border violations; foreign aid; and trade agreements. The findings indicate general agreement between Chinese and US experts in the classification of foreign-policy events as cooperative, neutral, or conflictive. In regard to more specific foreign-policy scenarios, the picture is more differentiated. In the case of economic sanctions and border violations, there appears, again, to be general agreement as to the degree of conflictiveness of these events. In addition, perception does not appear to be influenced by collective self-esteem, in the sense that responses remain similar whether the event is described in abstract or country-specific terms. In the case of trade agreements and foreign aid, by contrast, there is a divergence in Chinese and US perceptions in regard to contextual factors such as conditionality and enforcement. Overall, the study suggests that while culture rarely affects the general perception of foreign-policy events, it does play a role in the perception of more complex concepts, such as conditionality and enforcement, that structure the context and meaning of those events.

AbstractIn post-colonial Africa many rulers relied on so called 'divide-and-rule' politics to survive in office. The concept of divide-and-rule describes a strategy for rulers to sustain power by exploiting coordination problems among potential rivals. Rulers can break up rival concentrations of power by making discriminatory offers/sanctions or simply destroying communication channels among potential rivals. In this paper I will study the consequences of 'divide-and-rule' politics using original data on cabinet changes. In the empirical analysis I focus on the question whether cabinet shuffles affect the probability that a ruler is deposed in a coup d'etat and the probability of a coup attempt respectively. The analysis reveals that the incidence of a cabinet shuffle decreases the probability of a successful coup. This result proved to be robust even when accounting for endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. The results also showed that if rulers excessively reshuffle their ministers they risk a higher probability of coup attempts. Cabinet volatility, measured as the frequency of cabinet shuffles within six month is positively related to the probability of a coup attempt.

Der Artikel unternimmt eine vergleichende Analyse von Indizes zur Messung von fragiler Staatlichkeit. Zentrales Anliegen ist dabei die Überprüfung der Reliabilität und Validität der Messinstrumente. Die Analyse ergibt, dass die untersuchten Indizes zwar relativ zuverlässig das gleiche Phänomen abbilden, jedoch das Konzept fragile Staatlichkeit nicht hinreichend valide erfassen. Die vorgestellten Projekte lassen Kernaspekte des Konzepts unberücksichtigt, verzerren die Ergebnisse zugunsten von Demokratien und gewichten und aggregieren die Bestandteile des Konzepts ohne jegliche theoretische Fundierung. Darüber hinaus ist die Validität vieler Indikatoren fraglich, da diese im Kontext anderer Messkonstrukte stehen und keine konzeptionelle Nähe zum Phänomen aufweisen. Erst wenn es gelingt, ein Maß zu entwickeln, welches Sparsamkeit und Relevanz der Komponenten gleichermaßen erfüllt, kann die vergleichende Forschung zu fragiler Staatlichkeit von Indizes profitieren.

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a majority of countries worldwide have introduced severe limitations on the freedom of assembly, if not an outright lockdown, in many cases complemented by restrictions on further civil and political rights. Although restrictions were generally considered necessary to save lives and protect health care systems from overburdening, they also pose the risk of government overreach, that is, governments may use the pandemic as a convenient opportunity and justification to impose restrictions for political purposes. In this sense, COVID-19 may give yet another substantial boost to a global trend that has been unfolding since the early 2000s: the shrinking of civic spaces, which is characterized by an increase in government restrictions that target civil society actors and limit their freedoms of assembly, association, and expression. The aim of the paper is to assess civic space restrictions that have been imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic with a view to exploring their immediate consequences as well as their potential mid-term implications for civil society organizations in general and contentious civic activism in particular. We do so by, first, providing evidence from multiple data sources about the global spread of COVID-19-related restrictions over time and across countries. Second, we identify key dynamics at work in order to assess the immediate consequences and the potential mid-term implications of these restrictions. These dynamics are illustrated by looking at experiences from individual countries (including Cambodia, Germany, Hungary, and Lebanon).

Previous research has shown that successful non-violent resistance (NVR) campaigns promote democracy compared with violent revolutions and top-down liberalization. However, research to date has not examined the character and quality of the democratic regimes following NVR campaigns, or evaluated the mechanisms that produce this effect. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on the quality of democracy, using the Polyarchy index from the Varieties of Democracies project and its sub-components: (1) elected executive; (2) free and fair elections; (3) freedom of expression; (4) associational autonomy; and (5) inclusive citizenship. Using kernel matching and differences-in-differences estimation we find that initiating a democratic transition through NVR improves democratic quality after transition significantly and substantially relative to cases without this characteristic. Our analysis of the Polyarchy index's sub-components reveals that this positive effect comes about primarily owing to improvements in freedom of expression and associational autonomy. This finding speaks to the strength of NVR in promoting expressive dimensions of democracy.

Previous research has shown that successful non-violent resistance (NVR) campaigns promote democracy compared with violent revolutions and top-down liberalization. However, research to date has not examined the character and quality of the democratic regimes following NVR campaigns, or evaluated the mechanisms that produce this effect. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on the quality of democracy, using the Polyarchy index from the Varieties of Democracies project and its sub-components: (1) elected executive; (2) free and fair elections; (3) freedom of expression; (4) associational autonomy; and (5) inclusive citizenship. Using kernel matching and differences-in-differences estimation we find that initiating a democratic transition through NVR improves democratic quality after transition significantly and substantially relative to cases without this characteristic. Our analysis of the Polyarchy index's sub-components reveals that this positive effect comes about primarily owing to improvements in freedom of expression and associational autonomy. This finding speaks to the strength of NVR in promoting expressive dimensions of democracy.

Previous research has shown that successful non-violent resistance (NVR) campaigns promote democracy compared with violent revolutions and top-down liberalization. However, research to date has not examined the character and quality of the democratic regimes following NVR campaigns, or evaluated the mechanisms that produce this effect. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on the quality of democracy, using the Polyarchy index from the Varieties of Democracies project and its sub-components: (1) elected executive; (2) free and fair elections; (3) freedom of expression; (4) associational autonomy; and (5) inclusive citizenship. Using kernel matching and differences-in-differences estimation we find that initiating a democratic transition through NVR improves democratic quality after transition significantly and substantially relative to cases without this characteristic. Our analysis of the Polyarchy index's sub-components reveals that this positive effect comes about primarily owing to improvements in freedom of expression and associational autonomy. This finding speaks to the strength of NVR in promoting expressive dimensions of democracy.

Previous research has shown that successful non-violent resistance (NVR) campaigns promote democracy compared with violent revolutions and top-down liberalization. However, research to date has not examined the character and quality of the democratic regimes following NVR campaigns, or evaluated the mechanisms that produce this effect. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on the quality of democracy, using the Polyarchy index from the Varieties of Democracies project and its sub-components: (1) elected executive; (2) free and fair elections; (3) freedom of expression; (4) associational autonomy; and (5) inclusive citizenship. Using kernel matching and differences-in-differences estimation we find that initiating a democratic transition through NVR improves democratic quality after transition significantly and substantially relative to cases without this characteristic. Our analysis of the Polyarchy index's sub-components reveals that this positive effect comes about primarily owing to improvements in freedom of expression and associational autonomy. This finding speaks to the strength of NVR in promoting expressive dimensions of democracy.

Abstract
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the United Nations' most powerful institutional body, charged with the "primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security." The main instrument through which the Council asserts this power is its resolutions, specifically by using resolution text to attribute responsibility. The UNSC uses responsibility language to assign tasks, identify accountability under international law, or reflect the Council's normative interpretation of political principles. Yet we lack a comprehensive empirical description of responsibility attributions in UNSC resolutions. We address this gap by providing an original dataset of the full text of all UNSC resolutions between 1946 and 2020. We use this data to show that the Council has significantly increased responsibility attributions since the end of the Cold War, but only for a very specific subset of terms, targeting predominantly states and individuals. We further demonstrate how the data can inform debates about the timing and status of the "responsibility to protect" as an international norm. The data and findings provide a helpful starting point for many future research endeavors, including the role of member states in the UNSC, quantitative and qualitative research on UNSC decision-making processes, or topic development of the UNSC agenda in general.