Suchergebnisse

Abstract. The problem of detecting the occurrence of an earthquake precursor is faced in the general framework of the statistical learning theory. The aim of this work is both to build models able to detect seismic precursors from time series of different geochemical signals and to provide an estimate of number of false positives. The model we used is k-Nearest-Neighbor classifier for discriminating "no-disturbed signal", "seismic precursor" and "co-post seismic precursor" in time series relative to thirteen different hydrogeochemical parameters collected in water samples from a natural spring in Kamchachta (Russia) peninsula. The measurements collected are ion content (Na, Cl, Ca, HCO3, H3BO3), parameters (pH, Q, T) and gases (N2, CO2, CH4, O2, Ag). The classification error is measured by Leave-K-Out-Cross-Validation procedure. Our study shows that the most discriminative ions for detecting seismic precursors are Cl and Na having an error rates of 15%. Moreover, the most discriminative parameters and gases are Q and CH4 respectively, with error rate of 21%. The ions result the most informative hydrogeochemicals for detecting seismic precursors due to the peculiarities of the mechanisms involved in earthquake preparation. Finally we show that the information collected some month before the event under analysis are necessary to improve the classification accuracy.

Abstract. We analyze variations of the LF subionospheric signal amplitude and phase from JJY transmitter in Japan (F=40 kHz) received in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky station during seismically quiet and active periods including also periods of magnetic storms. After 20 s averaging, the frequency range of the analysis is 0.28–15 mHz that corresponds to the period range from 1 to 60 min. Changes in spectra of the LF signal perturbations are found several days before and after three large earthquakes, which happened in November 2004 (M=7.1), August 2005 (M=7.2) and November 2006 (M=8.2) inside the Fresnel zone of the Japan-Kamchatka wavepath. Comparing the perturbed and background spectra we have found the evident increase in spectral range 10–25 min that is in the compliance with theoretical estimations on lithosphere-ionosphere coupling by the Atmospheric Gravity Waves (T>6 min). Similar changes are not found for the periods of magnetic storms.

Abstract. On the background of seasonal and helio-geomagnetic disturbances, disturbances of the ionization density near noon connected to earthquakes are investigated. The study is performed for some tens of earthquakes with magnitudes M>5 and depths h<70 km, which occur at distances from the vertical sounding stations "Tokyo", "Akita", and "Yamagawa" not larger than R=exp(M)+150 km. The analysis is performed using data registered by the three sounding stations every hour during 30 years. Especially methods of the statistical analysis are applied to search for regularities in the lithospheric-ionospheric links before and after earthquakes. The growth of the mean ionization density N at the F-layer electron density maximum Fof2 five-three days before earthquakes, and the decrease of N approaching the eruption and during a few days after the earthquake is investigated in dependence on both the magnitude of the earthquake M and the ionization density N near the F-layer maximum. It is found that some days before earthquakes the decrease of the ionization density ΔN is proportional to the values of M and N. After the earthquakes, ΔN depends much weaker on the magnitude M, and it is not influenced by the ionization density N. The variations of the ionization density three days before earthquakes do not depend on N and M (within the same order of approximation).

Abstract. During February–March 1998, we observed a significant increase (6–8 dB) in the electric field of the CZE (f = 270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcasting station at a site named AS and located in central Italy. On 13 March 1998 an earthquake (M = 5.2) occurred in Slovenia, starting a strong seismic crisis (M = 6.0 on 12 April, M = 5.1 on 6 May). The distances of the epicentres from the radio receiver were over 400 km, but the epicentres are located in a zone that is in the middle of the CZE-AS path. Previously, we advanced the hypothesis that the increase of radio-signal electric field detected could be a precursor of the Slovenia seismic crisis. At the purpose to precise the connection between this radio anomaly and the preparatory phase of the earthquakes, we analysed in detail the data collected. At first we carried out a FFT on the data and clear harmonic components with period 0.5d, 1d, 14d, 28d and 365d were revealed. These periods are characteristic of gravity tides and therefore, it seems reasonable to consider the previous harmonics in the electric field of the radio signal as components related to tides of the atmosphere, assuming as tides of the atmosphere only the linear action of gravity tides on atmosphere. Then, we carried out band pass filters on our data and we discovered that the February–March 1998 increase is mainly related to an exalting of the harmonics with period 0.5d, 1d, 14d and 28d, i.e. of the (semi)monthly and (semi)diurnal atmospheric tidal components in the radio signal. Supposing that this exalting is produced by a corresponding exalting of the atmospheric tides we propose a model able to explain the production of such an effect during the preparatory phase of the Slovenia earthquakes.

Abstract. A signal transmitted by Japan Time Standard LF station (40 kHz, Fukushima prefecture) and recorded in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski (Russia) is analyzed during a time interval from 1 July 2004 till 24 January 2005. This interval is characterized by quiet seismic conditions up to the beginning of November, but rather strong seismic activity occurs in November and December not far from Hokkaido (Japan) and in the region of northern Kuril Islands. There were three series of earthquakes with M=5.6–7.1 in a zone of sensitivity of our wave path during two months. Nighttime "bay-like" phase and amplitude anomalies of the LF signal are observed several days before and during every series of earthquakes. During the whole period of seismic activity a significant shift in terminator times is also evident. The spectrum of LF seismo-induced anomalies shows a clear increase for the period of about 25 min.

Abstract. In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M > 5 and depths of the epicentre of h < 60 km, which appeared at distances of R < 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Abstract. Signals of two Japanese transmitters (22.2 kHz and 40 kHz) recorded on the ground VLF/LF station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and on board the DEMETER French satellite have been analyzed during a seismic activity in Japan in May–June 2008. The period of analysis was from 18 April to 27 June. During this time two rather large earthquakes occurred in the north part of Honshu Island – 7 May (M=6.8) and 13 June (M=6.9). The ground and satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal in nighttime and the model one. For ground observations a clear decrease in both signals has been found several days before the first earthquake. For the second earthquake anomalies were detected only in JJI signal. The epicenters of earthquakes were in reliable reception zone of 40 kHz signal on board the DEMETER. Signal enhancement above the seismic active region and significant signal intensity depletion in the magnetically conjugate area has been found for satellite observation before the first earthquake. Anomalies in satellite data coincide in time with those in the ground-based observation.

Abstract. The statistical analysis of the characteristic frequency foF2 of the Earth's ionosphere averaged over mid-day hours – from 11:00 till 17:00 h LT – is carried out. Disturbances of foF2 connected to earthquakes are considered on the background of seasonal, geomagnetic, 11-years and 27-days solar variations. A special normalized parameter F is introduced, which represents the almost seasonal-independent part of foF2. Days with high solar (Wolf number >100) and geomagnetic (∑Kp>30) activity are excluded from the analysis. Events with magnitude M>5, distance from the sounding station R<500 km and depth h<70 km are taken into account. The superimposed epoches' method is used to determine the temporal dependence of F. It is found that F increases about 3–6 days before the earthquakes and then decreases one day – two days before the shock. The decreased values of F continue to exist two-three days after events with M>5.5. The obtained phenomenon depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. For events with M>5.5, the reliability of the effect is larger than 95%. For data of more than 80 earthquakes in the vicinity of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and more than 200 earthquakes in the vicinity of Tokyo analogous results are obtained.

Abstract. In our earlier papers we have found the effect of VLF transmitter signal depression over epicenters of the large earthquakes from observation on the French DEMETER satellite that can be considered as new method of global diagnostics of seismic influence on the ionosphere. At present paper we investigate a possibility VLF signal-ionospheric turbulence interaction using additional characteristic of VLF signal-spectrum broadening. This characteristic is important for estimation of the interaction type: linear or nonlinear scattering. Our main results are the following: – There are two zones of increased spectrum broadening, which are centered near magnetic latitudes Φ=±10° and Φ=±40°. Basing on the previous case study research and ground ionosonde registrations, probably it is evidence of nonlinear (active) scattering of VLF signal on the ionospheric turbulence. However occurrence rate of spectrum broadening in the middle-latitude area is higher than in the near-equatorial zone (~15–20% in comparison with ~100% in former area) that is probably coincides with the rate of ionospheric turbulence. – From two years statistics of observation in the selected 3 low-latitude regions and 1 middle-latitude region inside reception area of VLF signal from NWC transmitter we find a correlation of spectrum broadening neither with ion-cyclotron noise (f=150–500 Hz), which possibly means poor representation of the turbulence by the noise due to its mixture with natural ELF emission (which correlates with whistler), nor with magnetic storm activity. – We find rather evident correlation of ion-cyclotron frequency noise, VLF signal depression and weak correlation of spectrum broadening with seismicity in the middle-latitude region over Japan. But in the low-latitude regions we do not find such a correlation. Statistical decrease of VLF signal supports our previous case study results. However rather weak spectrum broadening-seismicity statistical correlation means probably that passive scattering prevails upon nonlinear (active) one.

Abstract. For many years flow-rate, temperature, ions and gases content data have been collected from a natural spring located in the Koryakskiy volcano area (Kamchatka, Russia). We have investigated the correlations between the hydrogeochemical data and the areal seismicity represented by the ks values (ks is a function of magnitude and hypocentral distance) of the earthquakes. At first we smoothed the raw hydrogeochemical data using a semi-triangle weight function. Then we compared the trends of each smoothed hydrogeochemical parameter with the ks trend using a running cross-correlation function with a maximum lag of ± 30 days and the main result was that, sometimes, we found 0.7–0.4 cross-correlation coefficients with no lag for flow rate and with + (10 – 15) days lags for some ion and gas contents. The correlation is positive, i.e. flow rate and ion and gas contents increase when ks increases. This phenomenology could be explained by an underground water pumping produced by some earthquake. We advance the hypothesis that this pumping could be the response of the viscoelastic underground medium of the Koryakskiy volcano to seismic waves. So, sometimes, the supply of elastic energy of the earthquakes may provide the trigger to a catastrophic nucleation of bubbles of this material producing a new melt with a lower density which will tend to expand and cause a pressure increase. This pressure produces a more intensive circulation of underground water and an anomalous increase of the flow rate and subsequently anomalous increases in groundwater ions and gases content.

Abstract. Among radio signals, low frequency (LF) radio signals lie in the band between 30–300 kHz. Monitoring equipment with the ability to measure the electric strength of such signals at field sites, were designed and assembled in Italy. From 1993 onwards, the electric field strength of the MCO (216 kHz, France) broadcasting station has been collecting measurements at two sites in central Italy that were chosen according to very low noise levels. At the end of 1996, radio signals from the CLT (189 kHz, Italy) and CZE (270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcasting stations were included in the measurements. Meteorological data from central Italy were also collected over the same time period in order to study the influence of weather conditions on the experimental measurements. During the monitoring period, we observed some evident attenuation of the electric field strength in some of the radio signals at some of the receivers. The duration of the attenuation observed was several days, so it could possibly be related to particular meteorological conditions. On the other hand, this phenomenon might represent precursors of moderate (3.0 < M < 3.5) earthquakes that occurred near the receivers (within 50 km) along the transmitter-receiver path. In this case, it is possible that the pre-seismic processes could have produced irregularities in the troposphere, such as ducts, reflecting layers and scattering zones, so that some local troposphere defocusing of the radio signals might have occurred. These observations were related only to moderate earthquakes and in these cases, suitable meteorological conditions were probably needed to observe the effect. Between February – March 1998, we observed at one measuring site, a significant increase in the CZE electric field strength. Unfortunately, we could not use the data of the other receiver in this case, due to frequent interruptions in the data set. The increase might have been a precursor of the strong seismic sequence (M = 5.0–6.0) that occurred during March – May 1998 in Slovenia at a location over 400 km from the receiver, but lying in the middle of the transmitter-receiver path. In this case, it is possible that an ionospheric disturbance, produced by the pre-seismic processes, might have occurred.

Abstract. For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study, we investigated the possibility that the hydrogeochemical time series contained precursors. The technique used was to assume that each signal with an amplitude of three times the standard deviation is an irregularity and we then defined anomalies as irregularities occurring simultaneously in the data for more than one parameter at each well. Using this method, we identified 11 anomalies with 8 of them being possible successes and 3 being failures as earthquake precursors. Precursors were obtained for all five earthquakes that we considered. In this paper, we allow for the cross-correlation found between the gas data sets and in some cases, between the ion data sets. No cross-correlation has been found between gas and ion content data. Any correlation undermines the idea that an anomaly might be identified from irregularities appearing simultaneously on different parameters at each site. To refine the technique, we re-examine the hydrogeochemical data and define as anomalies those irregularities occurring simultaneously only in the data of two or more uncorrelated parameters. We then restricted the analysis to the cases of just the gas content data and the ion content data. In the first case, we found 6 successes and 2 failures, and in the second case, we found only 3 successes. In the first case, the precursors appear only for three of the five earthquakes we considered, and in the second case, only for two, but these are the earthquakes nearest to the wells. Interestingly, it shows that when a strict set of rules for defining an anomaly is used, the method produces only successes and when less restrictive rules are used, earthquakes further from the well are implicated, but at the cost of false alarms being introduced.

Abstract. We report the information that in the days of the radio anomaly presented in the paper Biagi et al. (2009) an interruption of the broadcasting from the transmitter (RMC, France) happened. It remains unclear if the action resulted in a complete power off of the system, or in a reduction in the radiated power, and if this has affected France only, or every direction. Should a complete power off have occurred, the proposed pre-seismic defocusing is inexistent. Our doubts on this action are reported.

Abstract. On 6 April 2009 a strong (Mw=6.3) earthquake occurred in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Since 1996, the intensity of CLT (f=189 kHz, Sicily, Italy), MCO (f=216 kHz, France) and CZE (f=270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcast signals has been collected with a ten minutes sampling rate by a receiver operating in a place located about 13 km far from the epicenter. During March 2009, the old receiver was substituted with a new one able to measure, with one minute sampling rate, the intensity of five VLF signals and five LF signals radiated by transmitters located in different zones of Europe. The MCO and CZE transmitters mentioned above are included among them. From 31 March to 1 April the intensity of the MCO radio signal dropped and this drop was observed only in this signal. The possibility that the drop was connected to problems in the transmitter or in the receiver was investigated and excluded. So, the drop indicates a defocusing of the radiated signal. Since no particular meteorological situation along the path transmitter-receiver happened, the defocusing must be related to other causes, and a possibility is presented that it is a precursor of the Abruzzo earthquake.

Abstract. The VLF/LF radio signals method for studying preseimic activity is applied to the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3, 6 April 2009). The data collected by three receivers located in Moscow (Russia), Graz (Austria) and Bari (Italy) at about 3000 km, 1000 km and 500 km from the epicenter were used. The signals received from the Sardinia (20.27 kHz) and the Sicily (45.9 kHz) transmitters, both located in Italy, were compared with those received from the Iceland (37.5 kHz), the Great Britain (19.58 kHz) and the Germany (23.4 kHz) transmitters. The propagation paths of the two Italian transmitters cross the epicentral area (seismic paths) unlike the paths of the other three signals (control paths). Using two different analyses, that are the study of the night-time signal and the research of shifts in the evening terminator times, clear anomalies were revealed 2–8 days before the occurrence of the Abruzzo earthquake in the seismic paths, while no anomalies have been found in the control paths.