Suchergebnisse

Part I: Preliminaries: Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Uncertainty and complexity: towards model-based demography -- Part II: Elements of the modelling process -- Chapter 3. Principles and state of the art of agent-based migration modelling -- Chapter 4. Building a knowledge base for the model -- Chapter 5. Uncertainty quantification, model calibration and sensitivity -- Chapter 6. The boundaries of cognition and decision making -- Chapter 7. Agent-based modelling and simulation with domain-specific languages -- Part III: Model results, applications, and reflections -- Chapter 8. Towards more realistic models -- Chapter 9. Bayesian model-based approach: impact on science and policy -- Chapter 10. Open science, replicability, and transparency in modelling -- Chapter 11. Conclusions: towards a Bayesian modelling process.

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a.

The subject of the article is the history of the formation of the separatist movement in Green-land in the years 1964–1979. Its origin and development fall into the period of rapid socio-economic changes on the island, initiated by the Danish state. Their aim became the adaptation of the Greenlandic society, as well as the economy, to the conditions prevailing in the rest of the country. These changes were forced by the evolution of the island's legal status made in 1953 under the new constitution of the Danish monarchy. The Greenlandic territory was linked by "legal community" to Denmark, becoming its administrative unit. The Greenlandic separatist movement was a grassroots social movement that originated among Greenlandic youth studying at Danish universities. Socio-economic, political, and cultural factors contributed to further dissatisfaction. Political and separatist activism made it possible for Greenlanders to gain autonomy in 1979. The different parts of the article present, among other things, a terminological analysis of the issue of separatism; the conditions for the emergence of the separatist movement are shown. The course of its activities, the dimension of its ideological assumptions, and its organisation are indicated. The article uses the analysis of primary and secondary sources, factor analysis, historical analysis and political science.