Background: The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of the Tibet Autonomous Region (hereinafter "Tibet") is still five times higher than the national average. This study aims to identify the successes and pitfalls of the health system that might be related to the high mortality rate based on the WHO health system building blocks, focusing on human resources for health and health infrastructure and the impact on maternal health and outcomes. Methods: Sources of information include China's central government and Tibet's local government policies and regulations, health statistical yearbooks, maternal and child health routine reporting system, and English and Chinese online research articles. Joinpoint analysis was applied for MMR and maternal health service trends, and correlation test was used to test the relationship between maternal health services and outcomes. Results: Between 2000 and 2015, public health spending in Tibet increased 67-fold, the hospital delivery rate increased 70.1%, and the MMR dropped from 466.9 to 100.1 per 100,000 live births. However, the total number of health workers, qualified medical doctors, and registered nurses per 1,000 people were 4.4, 1.4, and 1.0, respectively, much lower than the national average (5.8, 1.8, and 2.4). In Tibet, there were 80 basic and 16 comprehensive emergency obstetric care (EOC) centers. On average, there were 12 basic and 2.5 comprehensive EOC centers per 500,000 of the population. Though it met the WHO's recommendation, it might remain inadequate in the low population density of the area like Tibet. Conclusion: The shortage of health professionals and EOC centers and health information in predominantly remote rural areas with a scattered population still needs to be rectified
AbstractThis study explores the prevalence of physical, sexual and emotional intimate partner violence in Myanmar, attitudes towards violence, and the association between wealth and intimate partner violence. We analysed a nationally representative sample of 3425 married women aged 15–49 years from Myanmar Demographic and Health survey 2015–2016. In this cross-sectional study, data was collected by in-person interviews using a standardized questionnaire. Wealth was operationalized into five groups depending on how much the household owns. Intimate partner violence was measured based on the standard methods of Demographic and Health Survey. The overall prevalence of intimate partner violence (physical, sexual and emotional) was 20.6% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 18.9–22.3). Less severe physical intimate partner violence was reported by 14.8% (95% CI 13.5–16.3), while 4.4% (95% CI 3.8–5.2) reported severe physical violence. The prevalence of sexual and emotional violence were 2.8% (95% CI 2.2–3.6) and 13.1% (95% CI 11.7–14.6), respectively. Many women believed that a husband has the right to beat his wife if she acts inappropriate, with the highest prevalence at 43% of the women justifying beating if the wife neglects her children. In logistic regression analysis, low wealth as compared with higher wealth, was associated with a higher prevalence of intimate partner violence. The results reveals that intimate partner violence against ever-married women in Myanmar is present, that many women justify beating, and that wealth and intimate partner violence is associated.
Background: Electronic-health (e-health) provides opportunities for quality improvement of healthcare, but implementation in low and middle income countries is still limited. Our aim was to describe the implementation of a registration (case record form; CRF) for obstetric interventions and childbirth events using e-health in a prospective birth cohort study in Palestine. We also report the completeness and the reliability of the data. Methods: Data on maternal and fetal health was collected prospectively for all women admitted to give birth during the period from 1st March 2015 to 31st December 2015 in three governmental hospitals in Gaza and three in the West Bank. Essential indicators were noted in a case registration form (CRF) and subsequently entered into the District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS 2) system. Completeness of registered cases was checked against the monthly hospital birth registries. Reliability (correct information) of DHIS2 registration and entry were checked for 22 selected variables, collected during the first 10 months. In the West Bank, a comparison between our data registration and entry and data obtained from the Ministry of Health patient electronic records was conducted in the three hospitals. Results: According to the hospital birth registries, a total of 34,482 births occurred in the six hospitals during the study period. Data on the mothers and children registered on CRF was almost complete in two hospitals (100% and 99.9%); in the other hospitals the completeness ranged from 72.1% to 98.7%. Eighty birth events were audited for 22 variables in the three hospitals in the West Bank. Out of 1760 registrations in each hospital, the rates of correct data registration ranged from 81% to 93.2% and data entry ranged from 84.5% to 93.1%. Conclusions: The registered and entered data on birth events in six hospitals was almost complete in five out of six hospitals. The collected data is considered reliable for research purposes.
Background Electronic-health (e-health) provides opportunities for quality improvement of healthcare, but implementation in low and middle income countries is still limited. Our aim was to describe the implementation of a registration (case record form; CRF) for obstetric interventions and childbirth events using e-health in a prospective birth cohort study in Palestine. We also report the completeness and the reliability of the data. Methods Data on maternal and fetal health was collected prospectively for all women admitted to give birth during the period from 1st March 2015 to 31st December 2015 in three governmental hospitals in Gaza and three in the West Bank. Essential indicators were noted in a case registration form (CRF) and subsequently entered into the District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS 2) system. Completeness of registered cases was checked against the monthly hospital birth registries. Reliability (correct information) of DHIS2 registration and entry were checked for 22 selected variables, collected during the first 10 months. In the West Bank, a comparison between our data registration and entry and data obtained from the Ministry of Health patient electronic records was conducted in the three hospitals. Results According to the hospital birth registries, a total of 34,482 births occurred in the six hospitals during the study period. Data on the mothers and children registered on CRF was almost complete in two hospitals (100% and 99.9%); in the other hospitals the completeness ranged from 72.1% to 98.7%. Eighty birth events were audited for 22 variables in the three hospitals in the West Bank. Out of 1760 registrations in each hospital, the rates of correct data registration ranged from 81% to 93.2% and data entry ranged from 84.5% to 93.1%. Conclusions The registered and entered data on birth events in six hospitals was almost complete in five out of six hospitals. The collected data is considered reliable for research purposes.
Labasangzhu,1,2 E Bjertness,3 EB McNeil,2 Deji,1 Y Guo,4 P Songwathana,5 V Chongsuvivatwong2 1Department of Preventive Medicine, Tibet University Medical College, Lhasa, Tibet, China; 2Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hatyai, Songkhla, Thailand; 3Department of Community Medicine and Global Health, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; 4Department of Health Policies and Management, School of Public Health, Peking University Health and Science Center, Beijing, China; 5Department of Adult and Elderly Nursing, Faculty of Nursing, Prince of Songkla University, Hatyai, Songkhla, Thailand Background: The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of the Tibet Autonomous Region (hereinafter "Tibet") is still five times higher than the national average. This study aims to identify the successes and pitfalls of the health system that might be related to the high mortality rate based on the WHO health system building blocks, focusing on human resources for health and health infrastructure and the impact on maternal health and outcomes. Methods: Sources of information include China's central government and Tibet's local government policies and regulations, health statistical yearbooks, maternal and child health routine reporting system, and English and Chinese online research articles. Joinpoint analysis was applied for MMR and maternal health service trends, and correlation test was used to test the relationship between maternal health services and outcomes. Results: Between 2000 and 2015, public health spending in Tibet increased 67-fold, the hospital delivery rate increased 70.1%, and the MMR dropped from 466.9 to 100.1 per 100,000 live births. However, the total number of health workers, qualified medical doctors, and registered nurses per 1,000 people were 4.4, 1.4, and 1.0, respectively, much lower than the national average (5.8, 1.8, and 2.4). In Tibet, there were 80 basic and 16 comprehensive emergency obstetric care (EOC) centers. On average, there were 12 basic and 2.5 comprehensive EOC centers per 500,000 of the population. Though it met the WHO's recommendation, it might remain inadequate in the low population density of the area like Tibet. Conclusion: The shortage of health professionals and EOC centers and health information in predominantly remote rural areas with a scattered population still needs to be rectified. Keywords: health system, human resources for health, emergency obstetric care, Tibet
Abstract Background Recent societal and political reforms in Myanmar may upturn the socio-economy and, thus, contribute to the country's health transition. Baseline data on urban-rural disparities in non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors are not thoroughly described in this country which has been relatively closed for more than five decades. We aim to investigate urban-rural differences in mean values and the prevalence of selected behavioral and metabolic risk factors for non-communicable diseases and 10-years risk in development of coronary heart diseases (CHD). Methods Two cross-sectional studies were conducted in urban and rural areas of Yangon Region in 2013 and 2014 respectively, using the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of risk factors of NCDs. Through a multi-stage cluster sampling method, 1486 participants were recruited. Results Age-standardized prevalence of the behavioral risk factors tended to be higher in the rural than urban areas for all included factors and significantly higher for alcohol drinking (19.9% vs. 13.9%; p = 0.040) and low fruit & vegetable consumption (96.7% vs. 85.1%; p = 0.001). For the metabolic risk factors, the tendency was opposite, with higher age-standardized prevalence estimates in urban than rural areas, significantly for overweight and obesity combined (40.9% vs. 31.2%; p = 0.023), obesity (12.3% vs.7.7%; p = 0.019) and diabetes (17.2% vs. 9.2%; p = 0.024). In sub-group analysis by gender, the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia were significantly higher in urban than rural areas among males, 61.8% vs. 40.4%; p = 0.002 and 31.4% vs. 20.7%; p = 0.009, respectively. Mean values of age-standardized metabolic parameters showed higher values in urban than rural areas for both male and female. Based on WHO age-standardized Framingham risk scores, 33.0% (95% CI = 31.7–34.4) of urban dwellers and 27.0% (95% CI = 23.5–30.8) of rural dwellers had a moderate to high risk of developing CHD in the next 10 years. Conclusion The metabolic risk factors, as well as a moderate or high ten-year risk of CHD were more common among urban residents whereas behavioral risk factors levels were higher in among the rural people of Yangon Region. The high prevalences of NCD risk factors in both urban and rural areas call .
Background Recent societal and political reforms in Myanmar may upturn the socio-economy and, thus, contribute to the country's health transition. Baseline data on urban-rural disparities in non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors are not thoroughly described in this country which has been relatively closed for more than five decades. We aim to investigate urban-rural differences in mean values and the prevalence of selected behavioral and metabolic risk factors for non-communicable diseases and 10-years risk in development of coronary heart diseases (CHD). Methods Two cross-sectional studies were conducted in urban and rural areas of Yangon Region in 2013 and 2014 respectively, using the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of risk factors of NCDs. Through a multi-stage cluster sampling method, 1486 participants were recruited. Results Age-standardized prevalence of the behavioral risk factors tended to be higher in the rural than urban areas for all included factors and significantly higher for alcohol drinking (19.9% vs. 13.9%; p = 0.040) and low fruit & vegetable consumption (96.7% vs. 85.1%; p = 0.001). For the metabolic risk factors, the tendency was opposite, with higher age-standardized prevalence estimates in urban than rural areas, significantly for overweight and obesity combined (40.9% vs. 31.2%; p = 0.023), obesity (12.3% vs.7.7%; p = 0.019) and diabetes (17.2% vs. 9.2%; p = 0.024). In sub-group analysis by gender, the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia were significantly higher in urban than rural areas among males, 61.8% vs. 40.4%; p = 0.002 and 31.4% vs. 20.7%; p = 0.009, respectively. Mean values of age-standardized metabolic parameters showed higher values in urban than rural areas for both male and female. Based on WHO age-standardized Framingham risk scores, 33.0% (95% CI = 31.7–34.4) of urban dwellers and 27.0% (95% CI = 23.5–30.8) of rural dwellers had a moderate to high risk of developing CHD in the next 10 years. Conclusion The metabolic risk factors, as well as a moderate or high ten-year risk of CHD were more common among urban residents whereas behavioral risk factors levels were higher in among the rural people of Yangon Region. The high prevalences of NCD risk factors in both urban and rural areas call for preventive measures to reduce the future risk of NCDs in Myanmar.
OBJECTIVES: To explore the intake of fruits and vegetables in the Yangon region, Myanmar, and to describe associations between intake of fruits and vegetables (FV) and established risk factors for non-communicable diseases. DESIGN: 2 cross-sectional studies, using the STEPs methodology. SETTING: Urban and rural areas of the Yangon region of Myanmar. PARTICIPANTS: 1486, men and women, 25-74 years, were recruited through a multistage cluster sampling method. Institutionalised people, military personnel, Buddhist monks and nuns were not invited. Physically and mentally ill people were excluded. RESULTS: Mean intake of fruit was 0.8 (SE 0.1) and 0.6 (0.0) servings/day and of vegetables 2.2 (0.1) and 1.2 (0.1) servings/day, in urban and rural areas, respectively. Adjusted for included confounders (age, sex, location, income, education, smoking and low physical activity), men and women eating ≥2 servings of fruits and vegetables/day had lower odds than others of hypertriglyceridaemia (OR 0.72 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.94)). On average, women eating at least 2 servings of fruits and vegetables per day had cholesterol levels 0.28 mmol/L lower than the levels of other women. When only adjusted for sex and age, men eating at least 2 servings of fruits and vegetables per day had cholesterol levels 0.27 mmol/L higher than other men. CONCLUSIONS: A high intake of FV was associated with lower odds of hypertriglyceridaemia among men and women. It was also associated with cholesterol levels, negatively among women and positively among men.
Background International studies of the health of Indigenous and tribal peoples provide important public health insights. Reliable data are required for the development of policy and health services. Previous studies document poorer outcomes for Indigenous peoples compared with benchmark populations, but have been restricted in their coverage of countries or the range of health indicators. Our objective is to describe the health and social status of Indigenous and tribal peoples relative to benchmark populations from a sample of countries. Methods Collaborators with expertise in Indigenous health data systems were identified for each country. Data were obtained for population, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, low and high birthweight, maternal mortality, nutritional status, educational attainment, and economic status. Data sources consisted of governmental data, data from non-governmental organisations such as UNICEF, and other research. Absolute and relative differences were calculated. Findings Our data (23 countries, 28 populations) provide evidence of poorer health and social outcomes for Indigenous peoples than for non-Indigenous populations. However, this is not uniformly the case, and the size of the rate difference varies. We document poorer outcomes for Indigenous populations for: life expectancy at birth for 16 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1 year in 15 populations; infant mortality rate for 18 of 19 populations with a rate difference greater than one per 1000 livebirths in 16 populations; maternal mortality in ten populations; low birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in three populations; high birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in one population; child malnutrition for ten of 16 populations with a difference greater than 10% in five populations; child obesity for eight of 12 populations with a difference greater than 5% in four populations; adult obesity for seven of 13 populations with a difference greater than 10% in four populations; educational attainment for 26 of 27 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 24 populations; and economic status for 15 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 14 populations. Interpretation We systematically collated data across a broader sample of countries and indicators than done in previous studies. Taking into account the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we recommend that national governments develop targeted policy responses to Indigenous health, improving access to health services, and Indigenous data within national surveillance systems.
Source: doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6 ; Background: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes aff ecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identifi cation and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool fi rst developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each aff ected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-defi ciency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that aff ected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals aff ected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals aff ected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional defi ciencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-defi ciency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profi le driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.
Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. ; Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; Open Access funded by Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationUnder a Creative Commons license Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Background: Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods: Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings: Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation: Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.7-6.0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52.0% (95% UI 50.7-53.3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42.4% (41.3-43.6) to 2.6 million (2.6-2.7) neonatal deaths and 47.0% (35.1-57.0) to 2.1 million (1.8-2.5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3.0% (2.6-3.3), falling short of the 4.4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4.4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10.3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
Background: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.