Suchergebnisse

Past studies have examined the relationship of lung cancer to smoking using longitudinal data for select samples. This study applies the two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to U.S. +xsmoking data over a 25‐year period. Smoking Base Case (SBC) data on actual smoking duration and intensity from the years 1975–2000 are applied by gender to separate TSCE models, which are then calibrated to historical trends in lung cancer death rates using regression analysis. The uncalibrated and calibrated TSCE models are also applied to SBC data for two scenarios: (1) no tobacco control and (2) complete tobacco control. The results are used to develop estimates of the number of lives saved as a result of tobacco control and how many lives would be saved if cigarette use had ceased in 1965. Predictions of lung cancer from the TSCE models with CPS‐II and the CPS‐I data for males and especially females are considerably below historical rates with the deviations from historical rates increasing over time. Residual trends unrelated to the smoking models were also found. Tobacco control activities saved approximately 625,000 lives between the years 1975 and 2000. An additional 2,110,000 lives would have been saved if all smoking was stopped in 1965. Tobacco control has successfully prevented lung cancer deaths, but many more lives could be saved with further reductions in smoking rates. Systematic biases were observed from TSCE models using CPS‐I and CPS‐II data to estimate smoking‐related lung cancer deaths.

Aim To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Design, setting and participants Netherlands SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Measurements Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings With a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by asmuch as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145 000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package. Conclusions Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/ MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.