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Changes in the structure of work and families over the last four decades have increased many labour market inequalities. Growing earnings inequality, adverse labour market 'shocks' for the low‐educated, and geographically concentrated pockets of deprivation are among the most evident of these in Britain. The decade since the financial crisis has brought these inequalities into sharper focus, and the Covid‐19 pandemic has further exacerbated labour market inequality. The object of this paper is to highlight the key role played by poor wage progression for lower‐ and middle‐educated workers in understanding inequality in the labour market and for designing effective policy responses. It is unlikely that we can address all the concerns about low wages, wage progression and earnings inequality through the tax and welfare system alone. The challenge is how best to balance tax and welfare benefit policy with other policies, such as human capital policies, the minimum wage and labour market regulation. The results point to a mix of policies that aim to enhance wage progression for the lower‐educated within a welfare system that supports low‐earning families and provides a minimum wage floor for hourly wages.

A structural economic model is one where the structure of decision making is incorporated in the model specification. Structural models aim to identify three distinct, but related, objects: (i) structural "deep" parameters; (ii) underlying mechanisms; (iii) policy counterfactuals. The ability to provide counterfactual predictions sets structural models apart from reduced-form models. The focus is on studies that allow a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed behavior and that provide reliable insights about policy counterfactuals. Emphasis is given to models that minimize assumptions on the structural function and on unobserved heterogeneity and approaches that align structural and "reduced form" moments.

Even before the financial crisis, many developed economies were facing growing inequality and struggling to maintain employment and earnings. This paper addresses two key questions. What has happened to inequality? Where will tax and welfare reforms have most impact? The UK is used as a running example. The analysis suggests that the pattern of sluggish real wages at the bottom looks set to continue, and longer‐term earnings growth will come mainly from high‐skilled occupations. Growing earnings inequality will bring increasing pressure on the tax and welfare system. A blueprint for a coherent tax policy reform is presented.

With aging populations and increased demands on government revenue, countries need to boost employment and earnings. Tax policy should focus on labor market entry and retirement. Those are the points where labor supply is most responsive to tax incentives, which can enhance the flow into work of people leaving school and women with young children and can prolong employment among older workers. Human capital policy has a complementary role in improving the payoff to work and ensuring that earnings hold up longer over a lifetime.

AbstractThis paper examines the role of evidence in drawing up the recommendations for tax reform in the Mirrlees Review. The arguments are organised loosely under five related headings: (i) Key margins of adjustment. (ii) Measurement of effective tax rates. (iii) The importance of information and complexity. (iv) Evidence on the size of responses. (v) Implications from theory for tax design. Although the Mirrlees Review focuses on all aspects of tax reform, the focus is this paper is on the taxation of earnings with some examples drawn from the taxation of consumption and savings.