Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling of Pneumococcal Resistance to Penicillin
In: Mathematical population studies: an international journal of mathematical demography, Band 12, Heft 1, S. 1-16
ISSN: 1547-724X
9 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: Mathematical population studies: an international journal of mathematical demography, Band 12, Heft 1, S. 1-16
ISSN: 1547-724X
Influenza epidemics occur once a year during the winter in temperate areas. Little is known about the similarities between epidemics at different locations. We have analyzed pneumonia and influenza deaths from 1972 to 1997 in the United States, France, and Australia to examine the correlation over space and time between the three countries. We found a high correlation in both areas between France and the United States (correlation in impact, Spearman's ρ = 0.76, p < 0.001, and test for synchrony in timing of epidemics, p < 0.001). We did not find a similar correlation between the United States and Australia or between France and Australia, when considering a systematic half-year lead or delay of influenza epidemics in Australia as compared with those in the United States or France. These results support a high correlation at the hemisphere level and suggest that the global interhemispheric circulation of epidemics follows an irregular pathway with recurrent changes in the leading hemisphere.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
International audience ; BACKGROUND: Overuse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.
BASE
Following the emergence of a novel strain of influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, its epidemiology in Europe during the summer was limited to sporadic and localised outbreaks. Only the United Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays in late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored the following causes that could explain this surprising difference in transmission dynamics: extinction by chance, differences in the susceptibility profile, age distribution of the imported cases, differences in contact patterns, mitigation strategies, school holidays and weather patterns. No single factor was able to explain the differences sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model was used to model the country-specific weekly estimates of the effective reproductive number using the extinction probability, school holidays and weather patterns as explanatory variables. The average extinction probability, its trend and the trend in absolute humidity were found to be significantly negatively correlated with the effective reproduction number - although they could only explain about 3% of the variability in the model. By comparing the initial epidemiology of influenza A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis was able to uncover a possible role for the timing of importations (extinction probability), mixing patterns and the absolute humidity as underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on the role of these epidemiological factors, the control of influenza could be improved.
BASE