Suchergebnisse

The availability of microdata has increased rapidly over the last decades, and standard statistical and econometric software packages for data analysis include ever more sophisticated modeling options. The goal of this book is to familiarize readers with a wide range of commonly used models, and thereby to enable them to become critical consumers of current empirical research, and to conduct their own empirical analyses. The focus of the book is on regression-type models in the context of large cross-section samples. In microdata applications, dependent variables often are qualitative and discrete, while in other cases, the sample is not randomly drawn from the population of interest and the dependent variable is censored or truncated. Hence, models and methods are required that go beyond the standard linear regression model and ordinary least squares. Maximum li- lihood estimation of conditional probability models and marginal probability e?ects are introduced here as the unifying principle for modeling, estimating and interpreting microdata relationships. We consider the limitation to m- imum likelihood sensible, from a pedagogical point of view if the book is to be used in a semester-long advanced undergraduate or graduate course, and from a practical point of view because maximum likelihood estimation is used in the overwhelming majority of current microdata research. In order to introduce and explain the models and methods, we refer to a number of illustrative applications. The main examples include the deter- nants of individual fertility, the intergenerational transmission of secondary schoolchoices,andthewageelasticityoffemalelaborsupply.

AbstractMandatory health insurance (MHI) systems carry potential inequities due to their infrastructures. However, they are difficult to categorize and compare due to a high level of global variation. Thus, we conducted a review to define MHI systems typology and set forth recommendations regarding health systems classifications. Subsequently, we also aimed to understand the strategies used within MHI systems to decrease inequity. Using a systematic literature review, we found that health system typologies tend to classify MHI systems within the overarching social health insurance category, thus using the MHI term more as a descriptor rather than an official grouping of systems. Additionally, mandatory payments toward insurance lead to vertical and horizonta\ inequities that impact health outcomes. Social benefit schemes within countries aim to mitigate these inequities, although success rates vary greatly. MHI has the potential to be highly effective in providing universal coverage, thus contributing directly to the health system goals.

There is an ongoing discussion especially among political scientists and economists whether and how climate variability affects civil conflicts and wars in developing countries. Given the predicted climatic changes, several studies argue that increasing temperatures or decreasing precipitation will lead to more conflicts in the future. This paper aims at linking the different strands of the literature by analyzing the causal mechanisms at work. We use short-term weather variability as well as long-term changes in Sub-Saharan Africa and find that climate (change) significantly affects agricultural output, to some extent also GDP, and has no robust direct effects on civil wars. Negative shocks in GDP, however, have the expected fostering effects on civil conflicts.

There is an ongoing discussion especially among political scientists and economists whether and how climate variability affects civil conflicts and wars in developing countries. Given the predicted climatic changes, several studies argue that increasing temperatures or decreasing precipitation will lead to more conflicts in the future. This paper aims at linking the different strands of the literature by analyzing the causal mechanisms at work. We use short-term weather variability as well as long-term changes in Sub-Saharan Africa and find that climate (change) significantly affects agricultural output, to some extent also GDP, and has no robust direct effects on civil wars. Negative shocks in GDP, however, have the expected fostering effects on civil conflicts.

In October 2003, a new flight regime was introduced at Zurich airport that significantly changed the levels of noise pollution in surrounding communities. We investigate the impact of the new flight policy on apartment prices using a hedonic price model and a non-linear difference-in-differences identification strategy. Our results suggest that rental prices increased by about 3 to 8 percent less in regions affected by the policy change, controlling for several apartment and location characteristics. The noise discount is still significant, although smaller, even after the inclusion of object-speciffc fixed effects. However, we do not find evidence of price changes in the sales market.

In der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ist seit dem 11. September 2001 eine Reihe verschiedener Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Terrorismusbekämpfung getroffen worden. Ob sich damit ein innenpolitischer Paradigmenwechsel "vom Grundrechte-Schutzstaat zum wehrhaften demokratischen Staat auf allen Ebenen unter Einbindung aller Kräfte" abzeichnet, ist nach Einschätzung der Autoren allerdings eher zweifelhaft. Das aktionistische Moment überwiegt und eine kohärente Heimatschutz-Strategie ist nicht in Sicht. Kurzatmigkeit kennzeichnete auch den Sicherheitsdiskurs der Unionsparteien nach den Terroranschlägen in Madrid. Dieser Befund überrascht in mehrfacher Hinsicht: Die voraussichtlich lang anhaltende Bedrohungslage durch den islamistischen Netzwerkterrorismus zwingt die Unionsparteien, den Schutz der Bevölkerung als konzeptionellen Auftrag ernst zu nehmen und sich von einem tagespolitischen Sicherheitsaktionismus zu verabschieden. Dies gilt umso mehr, als "innere Sicherheit" traditionell eine Kernmaterie der Union darstellt und in hohem Maße geeignet ist, Mitte-Rechts-Wähler zu binden. In diesem Kontext könnten CDU/CSU mit "Heimatschutz" einen politisch-operativen Schlüsselbegriff inhaltlich besetzen, der im sicherheitspolitischen Diskurs von zentraler Bedeutung ist und von dem gleichzeitig eine hohe emotionale Signalwirkung ausgeht. Die vorliegenden Ausführungen möchten daher Impulse für eine kohärente Heimatschutz-Strategie liefern. Im Mittelpunkt stehen drei grundlegende Säulen eines "Systemverbundes innere Sicherheit", nämlich die strategische Vorfeldaufklärung von Polizei und Nachrichtendiensten, die Verzahnung von Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz und schließlich der erweiterte Inneneinsatz der Streitkräfte. (ICI2)

We use a credible regression discontinuity design to estimate causal education effects. Pupils in the Swiss education system had to pass a centrally organized exam that classified them into different levels of secondary school, and that ultimately determined their educational degree. A major feature of this exam was the local randomization around the classification threshold due to the impossibility of strategic sorting. Our preliminary results suggest large and significant effects on earnings, political interest, and attitudes toward immigrants. The extension to a wider set of data is part of ongoing research.