<i>Background:</i> With promising efficacy results from randomized control trials of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and the availability of new screening paradigms, policymakers are being asked to make recommendations and decisions regarding the optimal strategies to reduce HPV infection and disease. Such decisions are increasingly being made with significant input from mathematical and economic models. The demand for modeling has resulted in the publication of numerous mathematical models looking at the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination. <i>Objective:</i> To review published models that have been used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in developed countries and highlight points of consensus and disagreement in methods and findings. <i>Methods:</i> This review consists of cost-effectiveness studies published in the peer-reviewed literature before August 2008. <i>Results:</i> Despite variations in methods, modeling studies are producing consistent conclusions: (1) vaccinating young girls against HPV is likely to be cost- effective; (2) vaccinating boys will most likely not be cost- effective in countries that can reach high coverage rates in girls, and (3) results are most sensitive to the duration of vaccine protection. However, results from analyses examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccinating boys when coverage rates are low (≤80%) and catch-up strategies have reached conflicting conclusions.
IntroductionThe HIV Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by different risk groups. It was designed to guide country‐specific HIV prevention policies. To determine if the MOT produced context‐specific recommendations, we analyzed MOT results by region and epidemic type, and explored the factors (e.g. data used to estimate parameter inputs, adherence to guidelines) influencing the differences.MethodsWe systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and UNAIDS reports, and contacted UNAIDS country directors for published MOT results from MOT inception (2003) to 25 September 2012.ResultsWe retrieved four journal articles and 20 UNAIDS reports covering 29 countries. In 13 countries, the largest FNI (range 26 to 63%) was acquired by the low‐risk group and increased with low‐risk population size. The FNI among female sex workers (FSWs) remained low (median 1.3%, range 0.04 to 14.4%), with little variability by region and epidemic type despite variability in sexual behaviour. In India and Thailand, where FSWs play an important role in transmission, the FNI among FSWs was 2 and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the FNI among men who have sex with men (MSM) varied across regions (range 0.1 to 89%) and increased with MSM population size. The FNI among people who inject drugs (PWID, range 0 to 82%) was largest in early‐phase epidemics with low overall HIV prevalence. Most MOT studies were conducted and reported as per guidelines but data quality remains an issue.ConclusionsAlthough countries are generally performing the MOT as per guidelines, there is little variation in the FNI (except among MSM and PWID) by region and epidemic type. Homogeneity in MOT FNI for FSWs, clients and low‐risk groups may limit the utility of MOT for guiding country‐specific interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics.
BACKGROUND: HIV disproportionately affects gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Africa, where many countries criminalise same-sex behaviour. We assessed changes in the engagement of African MSM with HIV testing and treatment cascade stages over time, and the effect of anti-LGBT legislation and stigma. METHODS: We systematically searched Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science for peer-reviewed cross-sectional or longitudinal studies recruiting at least ten MSM, published from Jan 1, 1980, to Oct 10, 2018. We extracted or derived estimates of HIV testing, engagement with the HIV treatment cascade, or both among African MSM from published reports. We derived pooled estimates using inverse-variance random-effects models. We used subgroup and meta-regression analysis to assess associations between testing and status awareness outcomes and study and participant characteristics, including the severity of country-level anti-LGBT legislation. FINDINGS: Our searches identified 75 independent eligible studies that provided estimates for 44 993 MSM across one or more of five testing and treatment cascade outcomes. HIV testing increased significantly over time overall, with pooled proportions of MSM ever tested for HIV of 67·3% (95% CI 62·1-72·3; 44 estimates) and tested in the past 12 months of 50·1% (42·4-57·8, 31 estimates) after 2011, which were 14·8 percentage points and 17·9 percentage points higher than before 2011, respectively. After 2011, ever testing was highest in southern Africa (80·0%), and lowest in northern Africa (34·4%), with the greatest increase in western Africa (from 42·4% to 70·9%). Levels of testing ever, in the past 12 months, and status awareness were statistically significantly lower in countries with the most severe anti-LGBT legislation compared with countries with the least severe legislation (57·4% vs 71·6%, p=0·0056; 35·5% vs 49·3%, p=0·010; 6·7% vs 22·0%, p=0·0050). Few estimates were available for later stages of the treatment cascade. Available data after 2011 suggest that the pooled proportion of MSM HIV-positive aware has remained low (18·5%, 12·5-25·3; 28 estimates), whereas proportions of current antiretroviral therapy (ART) use were 23·7% (15·5-33·0; 13 estimates) among all MSM living with HIV and 60·1% (48·6-71·1; five estimates) among MSM HIV-positive aware of their status. Pooled levels of viral suppression among MSM currently on ART were 75·6% (64·4-85·5; four estimates), but only 24·7% (18·8-31·2; four estimates) among all MSM living with HIV. INTERPRETATION: Despite improvements in HIV testing among MSM in Africa, HIV status awareness, ART coverage, and viral suppression remain much lower than required to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Further studies are urgently needed to provide more accurate estimates of levels of status awareness, engagement in care, ART coverage, and viral suppression among MSM to inform prevention efforts aimed at improving access to HIV services for MSM. Severe anti-LGBT legislation might be associated with lower HIV testing and status awareness; therefore, further research is needed to assess the effect of such legislation on HIV testing and engagement with the HIV treatment cascade among MSM. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council.
BACKGROUND: HIV disproportionately affects gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Africa, where many countries criminalise same-sex behaviour. We assessed changes in the engagement of African MSM with HIV testing and treatment cascade stages over time, and the effect of anti-LGBT legislation and stigma. METHODS: We systematically searched Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science for peer-reviewed cross-sectional or longitudinal studies recruiting at least ten MSM, published from Jan 1, 1980, to Oct 10, 2018. We extracted or derived estimates of HIV testing, engagement with the HIV treatment cascade, or both among African MSM from published reports. We derived pooled estimates using inverse-variance random-effects models. We used subgroup and meta-regression analysis to assess associations between testing and status awareness outcomes and study and participant characteristics, including the severity of country-level anti-LGBT legislation. FINDINGS: Our searches identified 75 independent eligible studies that provided estimates for 44 993 MSM across one or more of five testing and treatment cascade outcomes. HIV testing increased significantly over time overall, with pooled proportions of MSM ever tested for HIV of 67.3% (95% CI 62.1–72.3; 44 estimates) and tested in the past 12 months of 50.1% (42.4–57.8, 31 estimates) after 2011, which were 14.8 percentage points and 17.9 percentage points higher than before 2011, respectively. After 2011, ever testing was highest in southern Africa (80.0%), and lowest in northern Africa (34.4%), with the greatest increase in western Africa (from 42.4% to 70.9%). Levels of testing ever, in the past 12 months, and status awareness were statistically significantly lower in countries with the most severe anti-LGBT legislation compared with countries with the least severe legislation (57·4% vs 71·6%, p=0 0056; 35 5% vs 49·3%, p=0·010; 6·7% vs 22.0%, p=0·0050). Few estimates were available for later stages of the treatment cascade. Available ...
AbstractIntroductionObservational studies suggest HIV and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections may have multiple interactions. We reviewed the strength of the evidence for the influence of HIV on HPV acquisition and clearance, and the influence of HPV on HIV acquisition.MethodsWe performed meta‐analytic systematic reviews of longitudinal studies of HPV incidence and clearance rate by HIV status (review 1) and of HIV incidence by HPV status (review 2). We pooled relative risk (RR) estimates across studies using random‐effect models. I2 statistics and subgroup analyses were used to quantify heterogeneity across estimates and explore the influence of participant and study characteristics including study quality. Publication bias was examined quantitatively with funnel plots and subgroup analysis, as well as qualitatively.Results and DiscussionIn review 1, 37 publications (25 independent studies) were included in the meta‐analysis. HPV incidence (pooled RR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.88; heterosexual males: pooled RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.62, 2.34; females: pooled RR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.26 to 2.11; men who have sex with men: pooled RR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82) and high‐risk HPV incidence (pooled RR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.90 to 2.54) was approximately doubled among people living with HIV (PLHIV) whereas HPV clearance rate (pooled RR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.67) was approximately halved. In review 2, 14 publications (11 independent studies) were included in the meta‐analysis. HIV incidence was almost doubled (pooled RR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.65) in the presence of prevalent HPV infection. There was more evidence of publication bias in review 2, and somewhat greater risk of confounding in studies included in review 1. There was some evidence that adjustment for key confounders strengthened the associations for review 2. Misclassification bias by HIV/HPV exposure status could also have biased estimates toward the null.ConclusionsThese results provide evidence for synergistic HIV and HPV interactions of clinical and public health relevance. HPV vaccination may directly benefit PLHIV, and help control both HPV and HIV at the population level in high prevalence settings. Our estimates of association are useful for mathematical modelling. Although observational studies can never perfectly control for residual confounding, the evidence presented here lends further support for the presence of biological interactions between HIV and HPV that have a strong plausibility.
AbstractIntroductionHIV epidemic appraisals are used to characterize heterogeneity and inequities in the context of the HIV pandemic and the response. However, classic measures used in appraisals have been shown to underestimate disproportionate risks of onward transmission, particularly among key populations. In response, a growing number of modelling studies have quantified the consequences of unmet prevention and treatment needs (prevention gaps) among key populations as a transmission population attributable fraction over time (tPAFt). To aid its interpretation and use by programme implementers and policy makers, we outline and discuss a conceptual framework for understanding and estimating the tPAFt via transmission modelling as a measure of onward transmission risk from HIV prevention gaps; and discuss properties of the tPAFt.DiscussionThe distribution of onward transmission risks may be defined by who is at disproportionate risk of onward transmission, and under which conditions. The latter reflects prevention gaps, including secondary prevention via treatment: the epidemic consequences of which may be quantified by the tPAFt. Steps to estimating the tPAFt include parameterizing the acquisition and onward transmission risks experienced by the subgroup of interest, defining the most relevant counterfactual scenario, and articulating the time‐horizon of analyses and population among whom to estimate the relative difference in cumulative transmissions; such steps could reflect programme‐relevant questions about onward transmission risks. Key properties of the tPAFt include larger onward transmission risks over longer time‐horizons; seemingly mutually exclusive tPAFt measures summing to greater than 100%; an opportunity to quantify the magnitude of disproportionate onward transmission risks with a per‐capita tPAFt; and that estimates are conditional on what has been achieved so far in reducing prevention gaps and maintaining those conditions moving forward as the status quo.ConclusionsThe next generation of HIV epidemic appraisals has the potential to support a more specific HIV response by characterizing heterogeneity in disproportionate risks of onward transmission which are defined and conditioned on the past, current and future prevention gaps across subsets of the population.
IntroductionIn Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti‐HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritizing PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore.MethodsA mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low‐risk groups was parameterized and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life‐years gained) and efficiency (life‐years gained/infections averted per 100 person‐years on PrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritization strategies (female sex workers, high‐risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high‐risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations.ResultsPopulation attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years in the whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritized. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use.ConclusionsPrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels.
AbstractBackground: HIV is transmitted more effectively during anal intercourse (AI) than vaginal intercourse (VI). However, patterns of heterosexual AI practice and its contribution to South Africa's generalized epidemic remain unclear. We aimed to determine how common and frequent heterosexual AI is in South Africa.Methods: We searched for studies reporting the proportion practising heterosexual AI (prevalence) and/or the number of AI and unprotected AI (UAI) acts (frequency) in South Africa from 1990 to 2015. Stratified random‐effects meta‐analysis by sub‐groups was used to produce pooled estimates and assess the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence. We also estimated the fraction of all sex acts which were AI or UAI and compared condom use during VI and AI.Results: Of 41 included studies, 31 reported on AI prevalence and 14 on frequency, over various recall periods. AI prevalence was high across different recall periods for sexually active general‐risk populations (e.g. lifetime = 18.4% [95%CI:9.4–27.5%], three‐month = 20.3% [6.1–34.7%]), but tended to be even higher in higher‐risk populations such as STI patients and female sex workers (e.g. lifetime = 23.2% [0.0–47.4%], recall period not stated = 40.1% [36.2–44.0%]). Prevalence was higher in studies using more confidential interview methods. Among general and higher‐risk populations, 1.2–40.0% and 0.7–21.0% of all unprotected sex acts were UAI, respectively. AI acts were as likely to be condom protected as vaginal acts.Discussion: Reported heterosexual AI is common but variable among South Africans. Nationally and regionally representative sexual behaviour studies that use standardized recall periods and confidential interview methods, to aid comparison across studies and minimize reporting bias, are needed. Such data could be used to estimate the extent to which AI contributes to South Africa's HIV epidemic.
Female, male, and transgender sex workers continue to have disproportionately high burdens of HIV infection in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in 2018. 4 years since our Lancet Series on HIV and sex work, our updated analysis of the global HIV burden among female sex workers shows that HIV prevalence is unacceptably high at 10·4% (95% CI 9·5-11·5) and is largely unchanged. Comprehensive epidemiological data on HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage are scarce, particularly among transgender women. Sustained coverage of treatment is markedly uneven and challenged by lack of progress on stigma and criminalisation, and sustained human rights violations. Although important progress has been made in biomedical interventions with pre-exposure prophylaxis and early ART feasibility and demonstration projects, limited coverage and retention suggest that sustained investment in community and structural interventions is required for sex workers to benefit from the preventive interventions and treatments that other key populations have. Evidence-based progress on full decriminalisation grounded in health and human rights-a key recommendation in our Lancet Series-has stalled, with South Africa a notable exception. Additionally, several countries have rolled back rights to sex workers further. Removal of legal barriers through the decriminalisation of sex work, alongside political and funding investments to support community and structural interventions, is urgently needed to reverse the HIV trajectory and ensure health and human rights for all sex workers.
Female, male, and transgender sex workers continue to have disproportionately high burdens of HIV infection in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in 2018. 4 years since our Lancet Series on HIV and sex work, our updated analysis of the global HIV burden among female sex workers shows that HIV prevalence is unacceptably high at 10·4% (95% CI 9·5–11·5) and is largely unchanged. Comprehensive epidemiological data on HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage are scarce, particularly among transgender women. Sustained coverage of treatment is markedly uneven and challenged by lack of progress on stigma and criminalisation, and sustained human rights violations. Although important progress has been made in biomedical interventions with pre-exposure prophylaxis and early ART feasibility and demonstration projects, limited coverage and retention suggest that sustained investment in community and structural interventions is required for sex workers to benefit from the preventive interventions and treatments that other key populations have. Evidence-based progress on full decriminalisation grounded in health and human rights—a key recommendation in our Lancet Series—has stalled, with South Africa a notable exception. Additionally, several countries have rolled back rights to sex workers further. Removal of legal barriers through the decriminalisation of sex work, alongside political and funding investments to support community and structural interventions, is urgently needed to reverse the HIV trajectory and ensure health and human rights for all sex workers.
AbstractIntroductionHIV prevalence is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Baltimore, Maryland, United States, and the levels of viral suppression among HIV‐positive MSM are relatively low. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 078 trial seeks to increase the levels of viral suppression among US MSM by increasing the rates of diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment. We estimated the increases in viral suppression needed to reach different HIV incidence reduction targets, and the impact of meeting diagnosis and treatment targets.MethodsWe used a mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM from Baltimore, US, parameterised with behavioural data and fitted to HIV prevalence and care continuum data for Baltimore wherever possible, to project increases in viral suppression needed to reduce the HIV incidence rate among Baltimore MSM by 10, 20, 30 or 50% after 2, 5 and 10 years. We also projected HIV incidence reductions achieved if US national targets – 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) know their HIV serostatus, 90% of those diagnosed are retained in HIV medical care and 80% of those diagnosed are virally suppressed – or UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 targets (90% of PLHIV know their status, 90% of those diagnosed receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), 90% of those receiving ART are virally suppressed) are each met by 2020.ResultsTo reduce the HIV incidence rate by 20% and 50% after five years (compared with the base‐case at the same time point), the proportion of all HIV‐positive MSM who are virally suppressed must increase above 2015 levels by a median 13 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 9 to 16 percentage points) from median 49% to 60%, and 27 percentage points (22 to 35) from 49% to 75% respectively. Meeting all three US or 90‐90‐90 UNAIDS targets results in a 48% (31% to 63%) and 51% (38% to 65%) HIV incidence rate reduction in 2020 respectively.ConclusionsSubstantial improvements in levels of viral suppression will be needed to achieve significant incidence reductions among MSM in Baltimore, and to meet 2020 US and UNAIDS targets. Future modelling studies should additionally consider the impact of pre‐exposure prophylaxis for MSM.
AbstractIntroductionHIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been recommended and partly subsidized in Québec, Canada, since 2013. We evaluated the population‐level impact of PrEP on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Montréal, Québec's largest city, over 2013–2021.MethodsWe used an agent‐based mathematical model of sexual HIV transmission to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions averted by PrEP compared to a counterfactual scenario without PrEP. The model was calibrated to local MSM survey, surveillance, and cohort data and accounted for COVID‐19 pandemic impacts on sexual activity, HIV prevention, and care. PrEP was modelled from 2013 onwards, assuming 86% individual‐level effectiveness. The PrEP eligibility criteria were: any anal sex unprotected by condoms (past 6 months) and either multiple partnerships (past 6 months) or multiple uses of post‐exposure prophylaxis (lifetime). To assess potential optimization strategies, we modelled hypothetical scenarios prioritizing PrEP to MSM with high sexual activity (≥11 anal sex partners annually) or aged ⩽45 years, increasing coverage to levels achieved in Vancouver, Canada (where PrEP is free‐of‐charge), and improving retention.ResultsOver 2013–2021, the estimated annual HIV incidence decreased from 0.4 (90% credible interval [CrI]: 0.3–0.6) to 0.2 (90% CrI: 0.1–0.2) per 100 person‐years. PrEP coverage among HIV‐negative MSM remained low until 2015 (<1%). Afterwards, coverage increased to a maximum of 10% of all HIV‐negative MSM, or about 16% of the 62% PrEP‐eligible HIV‐negative MSM in 2020. Over 2015–2021, PrEP averted an estimated 20% (90% CrI: 11%–30%) of cumulative HIV acquisitions. The hypothetical scenarios modelled showed that, at the same coverage level, prioritizing PrEP to high sexual activity MSM could have averted 30% (90% CrI: 19%–42%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015‐2021. Even larger impacts could have resulted from higher coverage. Under the provincial eligibility criteria, reaching 10% coverage among HIV‐negative MSM in 2015 and 30% in 2019, like attained in Vancouver, could have averted up to 63% (90% CrI: 54%–70%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015 to 2021.ConclusionsPrEP reduced population‐level HIV transmission among Montréal MSM. However, our study suggests missed prevention opportunities and adds support for public policies that reduce PrEP barriers, financial or otherwise, to MSM at risk of HIV acquisition.
AbstractIntroductionIn 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale‐up pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost‐effectiveness of this programme, including future scale‐up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic.MethodsA compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self‐reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down‐adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0–70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2–87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss‐to‐follow‐up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40–0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale‐up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016–2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016–2020) and the future impact (2021–2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost‐effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016–2040) of the current PrEP provision.ResultsCalibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV‐negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35–0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016–2020 or 605 (444–840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99–23.29). PrEP is cost‐saving, with $1.42 (1.03–1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572–9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7–11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308–38,107) infections averted by 2040.ConclusionsOur findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services.
AbstractIntroductionLong‐acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB‐LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics.MethodsThree risk‐stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person‐years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB‐LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB‐LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only.ResultsIncreasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB‐LA users among PrEP‐eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5–10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP‐indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively.ConclusionsAchieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).
The women, men, and transgender persons who sell sex globally have disproportionate risks and burdens of HIV, in low, middle and high income country settings, and in concentrated and generalized epidemic contexts. The greatest HIV burdens continue to be among African women sex workers. Worldwide, sex workers continue to face reduced access to needed HIV prevention, treatment, and care services. Legal environments, policies and policing practices, lack of funding for research and HIV programming, human rights violations and stigma and discrimination continue to challenge sex workers' abilities to protect themselves, their families, and their sexual partners from HIV. These realities must change for the benefits of recent advances in HIV prevention and treatment to be realized and for global control of the HIV pandemic to be achieved. Effective combination prevention and treatment approaches are feasible, can be tailored for cultural competence, can be cost-saving and can help address the unmet needs of sex workers and their communities in ways that uphold their human rights. To address HIV among sex workers will require sustained community engagement and empowerment, continued research, political will, structural and policy reform and innovative programming. But it can and must be done.
