Suchergebnisse

(francuski) En formalisant une dynamique ? effets de seuil, les mod?les ? ?quilibres multiples enrichissent le paradigme de la croissance endog?ne; l?objectif de cet article est de montrer qu?ils renforcent ?galement la responsabilit? de la politique ?conomique. En effet, d?s lors que les conditions initiales s?lectionnent l??quilibre de long terme, l?histoire de la politique publique d?investissement (au sens large) devient d?terminante. Par ailleurs l?intervention publique peut permettre la sortie de la trappe de pauvret?. Sur la p?riode 1970-1995, nous testons l?hypoth?se d?effets de seuil en liaison avec le niveau initial du stock de capital (au sens large) d?velopp? par l??tat. Nos r?sultats empiriques sugg?rent un r?le pour la politique publique dans la diff?renciation des r?gimes de convergence de sorte que la relation entre la croissance et la politique ?conomique n?est pas n?cessairement lin?aire.

This paper aims to illustrate the impact of financial variables on the process of convergence between selected European Union countries and the Balkan countries. Following a delay in the realization of structural changes resulting from the historical legacy and circumstances in which the transition process took place, Balkan countries began essential reforms in their financial systems at the end of 1990s. This included the adoption of concrete measures directed towards the growth and increase of the financial sector efficiency. Given this we use panel data over the period 1999-2007 for a sample of 21 countries, to test the convergence's hypothesis by the Bayesian iterative estimation method. Here two financial variables are introduced to control the differences in steady-state. Our empirical results sustain the importance of the domestic credit and the market capitalization in the catching-up process by a significant increase in the speed of convergence.