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We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the xxist century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of ingenue, an olg model that divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into ingenue to make prospective scenarios.A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility.The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that eu enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed. ; Nous explorons la croissance tendancielle de l'Europe au sein de l'économie mondiale. La recherche couvre la première moitié du xxie siècle. Les principaux facteurs du régime de croissance vont être la transition démographique et la diffusion du progrès technique. Nous utilisons le modèle ingenue qui découpe le monde en dix grandes régions. Des hypothèses sont formulées sur ces facteurs et discutée dans une perspective historique. Les changements structurels impliqués par ces hypothèses sont introduits dans ingenue pour faire des scénarios prospectifs.Un scénario de référence est construit qui décrit les principales caractéristiques macroéconomiques des grandes régions. Parce qu'il veut être la base à partir de laquelle sont étudiées des variantes, ce scénario est conservateur dans les changements structurels et institutionnels qu'il incorpore. Il décrit l'Europe occidentale comme une région vieillissante à croissance faible, qui accumule des actifs nets sur l'étranger et qui bénéficie d'une appréciation réelle de l'euro. Ce sont les caractéristiques d'un créancier permanent qui tire parti de la mobilité du capital.Deux scénarios illustrent les frontières de l'Europe. D'abord, on suppose que l'élargissement vers l'Est accélère le rattrapage technologique de l'Europe de l'Est et donne une impulsion à la croissance. Ensuite, on simule une politique d'immigration en Europe de l'Ouest pour compenser le déclin de la population active et modérer l'augmentation du coût du financement public des retraites. Le modèle met en évidence et quantifie les effets bénéfiques en Europe de l'Ouest et les effets contraires dans les zones d'émigration.

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the xxist century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of ingenue, an olg model that divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into ingenue to make prospective scenarios.A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility.The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that eu enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed. ; Nous explorons la croissance tendancielle de l'Europe au sein de l'économie mondiale. La recherche couvre la première moitié du xxie siècle. Les principaux facteurs du régime de croissance vont être la transition démographique et la diffusion du progrès technique. Nous utilisons le modèle ingenue qui découpe le monde en dix grandes régions. Des hypothèses sont formulées sur ces facteurs et discutée dans une perspective historique. Les changements structurels impliqués par ces hypothèses sont introduits dans ingenue pour faire des scénarios prospectifs.Un scénario de référence est construit qui décrit les principales caractéristiques macroéconomiques des grandes régions. Parce qu'il veut être la base à partir de laquelle sont étudiées des variantes, ce scénario est conservateur dans les changements structurels et institutionnels qu'il incorpore. Il décrit l'Europe occidentale comme une région vieillissante à croissance faible, qui accumule des actifs nets sur l'étranger et qui bénéficie d'une appréciation réelle de l'euro. Ce sont les caractéristiques d'un créancier permanent qui tire parti de la mobilité du capital.Deux scénarios illustrent les frontières de l'Europe. D'abord, on suppose que l'élargissement vers l'Est accélère le rattrapage technologique de l'Europe de l'Est et donne une impulsion à la croissance. Ensuite, on simule une politique d'immigration en Europe de l'Ouest pour compenser le déclin de la population active et modérer l'augmentation du coût du financement public des retraites. Le modèle met en évidence et quantifie les effets bénéfiques en Europe de l'Ouest et les effets contraires dans les zones d'émigration.

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the xxist century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of ingenue, an olg model that divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into ingenue to make prospective scenarios.A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility.The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that eu enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed. ; Nous explorons la croissance tendancielle de l'Europe au sein de l'économie mondiale. La recherche couvre la première moitié du xxie siècle. Les principaux facteurs du régime de croissance vont être la transition démographique et la diffusion du progrès technique. Nous utilisons le modèle ingenue qui découpe le monde en dix grandes régions. Des hypothèses sont formulées sur ces facteurs et discutée dans une perspective historique. Les changements structurels impliqués par ces hypothèses sont ...

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the XXI° century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of INGENUE, an OLG model which divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into INGENUE to make prospective scenarios. A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility. The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that EU enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed.

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the XXI° century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of INGENUE, an OLG model which divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into INGENUE to make prospective scenarios. A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility. The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that EU enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed.

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the XXI° century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of INGENUE, an OLG model which divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into INGENUE to make prospective scenarios. A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility. The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that EU enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed.

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Last year's International Collaboration Project had helped to highlight several key determinants of potential growth in the European Union (EU): basing upon growth accounting techniques, the main difference between the EU and the US had been shown not to rest on total factor productivity levels but, rather, on inputs per capita and, more specifically, on low employment levels in the EU. With this peculiar result in mind, investigating the bad employment performance of the EU had been the second step of last year's Project: the main result had been that EU policymaking design was flawed and that prospects for growth would be improving only insofar as institutions like fiscal policy, the EU budget and monetary policy would be reformed. Finally, we had investigated the consequences of the last EU enlargement on the EU newcomers and on the other EU members. We had shown that the weight of these newcomers was so low that these countries could not be considered as a burden for the EU (.).

Last year's International Collaboration Project had helped to highlight several key determinants of potential growth in the European Union (EU): basing upon growth accounting techniques, the main difference between the EU and the US had been shown not to rest on total factor productivity levels but, rather, on inputs per capita and, more specifically, on low employment levels in the EU. With this peculiar result in mind, investigating the bad employment performance of the EU had been the second step of last year's Project: the main result had been that EU policymaking design was flawed and that prospects for growth would be improving only insofar as institutions like fiscal policy, the EU budget and monetary policy would be reformed. Finally, we had investigated the consequences of the last EU enlargement on the EU newcomers and on the other EU members. We had shown that the weight of these newcomers was so low that these countries could not be considered as a burden for the EU (.).

Last year's International Collaboration Project had helped to highlight several key determinants of potential growth in the European Union (EU): basing upon growth accounting techniques, the main difference between the EU and the US had been shown not to rest on total factor productivity levels but, rather, on inputs per capita and, more specifically, on low employment levels in the EU. With this peculiar result in mind, investigating the bad employment performance of the EU had been the second step of last year's Project: the main result had been that EU policymaking design was flawed and that prospects for growth would be improving only insofar as institutions like fiscal policy, the EU budget and monetary policy would be reformed. Finally, we had investigated the consequences of the last EU enlargement on the EU newcomers and on the other EU members. We had shown that the weight of these newcomers was so low that these countries could not be considered as a burden for the EU (.).

In sharp contrast with the buoyant economic dynamism observed in most other areas of the world, slow growth and persistently high unemployment have been characterizing the European Union (EU) economy for a number of years. This report investigates some of the possible causes of this poor macroeconomic performance, analyzing in depth the hypotheses of technological backwardness and of inappropriate economic policies, as major determinants of potential growth. It then proposes some contrasted scenarios for economic and social policies in the EU and explores, with the help of the INGENUE, overlappinggenerations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy, some of the possible long-termevolutions of economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators for various scenarios. In particular, we look at the aggregate economic consequences over the next decades of various ways in which the combination of policies being implemented and the recent enlargement of the European Union may affect the growth potential of the area. More specifically, among the many possible changes that may be forthcoming with this new EU enlargement, we simulate the changes in the time-path of macroeconomic variables resulting from the achievement of the "Lisbon strategy" objective of higher employment rates in the EU, from faster technological convergence of Eastern European economies towards Western European levels of total factor productivity (TFP), and from larger migration flows from Eastern European new members to the EU-15 countries. Although the consequences may in some cases be quite large for the enlarged EU economy, the induced effects on the rest of the world are, in all cases, relatively small, due to the small weight of Eastern Europe in the world economy and population.