Suchergebnisse

AbstractThe newest solutions in Polish Armed Forces are implemented gradually and focus mainly on soldiers combat readiness. Many concurrent processes occur, which proper analysis and interpretation could constitute command process and task realization support, however poor and standing (paper) record seems to be an obstacle in their modeling. Therefore the author of the article tried to depict the process of military technical objects exploitation based on archived data according to present methods of documents preparation, circuit and record, applicable in Polish Armed Forces. Based on that, the method of aircraft ships from military air base readiness research, powered by ARIMA model was proposed. Using empirical data of two years of exploitation, the identification of researched time series, and then a few models estimation was made. Finally, the best model was chosen and verified.

The actions taken by companies today are increasingly precise, dedicated to specific market expectations therefore require an increasingly solid basis for decision-making, especially at the strategic level. A key support in this area is forecasting methods that allow probing about the future with a certain probability. Therefore, methods for determining such forecasts are developing rapidly, creating an arsenal of usable tools. However, many of them rely on modern information retrieval systems, require accurate data with many variables and a long history. Despite the advancing digitization, this is still unattainable for many (especially small) businesses. Therefore, the presentation and methods of short-term forecasting using analytical models should not be abandoned, because for many companies this is the best solution, and often the only one possible. This idea became the genesis of this article. It selects and presents methods dedicated to time series characterized by trend and seasonality, which are quite difficult to identify. They were compared and a method of model selection strategy was presented to select the forecast with the highest reliability. The models presented are easy to interpret and utilitarian and can provide effective support for supply chain management processes.

First, the authors will refer to the general tasks that the armed forces are faced with in connection with the epidemiological threat. Then, the tasks and areas of Polish soldiers' involvement during the fight against the pandemic will be presented. Further, the impact of the existing threat on the functioning of the armed forces will be analyzed. Finally, based on the analyses carried out, conclusions will be drawn to boost the readiness for epidemiological threats, allowing the appropriate state security level to be achieved more effectively. The appearance of SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus, causing the COVID-19 disease in Poland, was a new and unprecedented threat posing an enormous challenge to the state security management system. Therefore, the armed forces have been involved in the fight to stop the pandemic quickly and efficiently. Primarily, the services of territorial defense forces, operational forces, and cadets were relied upon. Soldiers support the health service, carry out preventive measures, and monitor and control national borders. They participate in mitigating the effects of the crisis and in strengthening the resilience of local communities. They support the activities of local government and sanitary institutions. The evolving pandemic has become a test of military units' effectiveness and readiness taking part in the fight. military units' effectiveness and readiness taking part in the fight. This allows us to draw conclusions that are significant for the armed forces' on-going operations and define future directions concerning modernization and development. ; peer-reviewed

Okulicz-Kozaryn, K. & Borucka, A. (2013). Patterns of alcohol use among Warsaw adolescents across 20 years—from 1988 to 2008. International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research, 2(2), 37-44. doi:10.7895/ijadr.v2i2.102 (http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.v2i2.102)Aim: The study investigates patterns of alcohol drinking among 15-year-old Polish students in Warsaw over the past 20 years.Methods: Data were collected from six consecutive surveys, beginning in 1988 (N = 3918) and conducted every four years (in 2008, N = 1229).Results: Two-step cluster analysis across all six consecutive surveys indicated a clear differentiation of the social context of adolescent alcohol drinking patterns. Adolescents are least likely to drink alcohol alone (< 5%) or heavily with peers (< 10%), more likely to drink with parents (15%-20%), in moderate amounts with peers (11%-28%) or not at all (11%-27%), and most likely to be light social drinkers (30%-46%). Cross-gender comparisons suggest that traditional gender differences are fading away; the data show increases in moderate social drinking among females and abstinence among males.Conclusions: Our results confirm that adolescents' patterns of alcohol use are stable over time, despite the social and political changes that have occurred in Poland since 1988, and reflect a pattern of mostly moderate drinking.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted governments to take radical measures to contain the virus and protect their citizens. These included successive restrictions on social distance, which have led to closing many enterprises in various industries and dismissing their employees. Introducing restrictions has significantly weakened many countries' economies. Stock markets have noted sharp declines. Therefore, public protection has led to severe consequences for the labour market. Attempts at defining them have been undertaken in the body of literature. However, they focus mainly on analysing selected indicators. According to the authors, it is worth analysing the correlation between the number of deaths as the variable that best reflects the disease's severity and selected unemployment rates. It was assumed that the number of deaths is a factor significantly distinguishing the periods before and after the pandemic. Therefore, it is possible to assess the correlation between the pandemic and the labour market condition.