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This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data on age-specific mortality are used to estimate life expectancy, and validated data on exceptional life spans are used to study the maximum length of life. In the countries doing best each year, life expectancy started to increase around 1840 at a pace of almost 2.5 y per decade. This trend has continued until the present. Contrary to classical evolutionary theories of senescence and contrary to the predictions of many experts, the frontier of survival is advancing to higher ages. Furthermore, individual life spans are becoming more equal, reducing inequalities, with octogenarians and nonagenarians accounting for most deaths in countries with the highest life expectancy. If the current pace of progress in life expectancy continues, most children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life expectancy and maximum life span might increase very little if at all, or longevity might rise much faster than in the past. Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades in deepening understanding of how long humans have lived and how long they might live. The social, economic, health, cultural, and political consequences of further increases in longevity are so significant that the development of more powerful methods of forecasting is a priority.

This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity andexplores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data on age-specific mortality areused to estimate life expectancy, and validated data on exceptional life spans are used to study themaximum length of life. In the countries doing best each year, life expectancy started to increase around1840 at a pace of almost 2.5 y per decade. This trend has continued until the present. Contrary to classicalevolutionary theories of senescence and contrary to the predictions of many experts, the frontier ofsurvival is advancing to higher ages. Furthermore, individual life spans are becoming more equal, reducinginequalities, with octogenarians and nonagenarians accounting for most deaths in countries with the highest life expectancy. If the current pace of progress in life expectancy continues, most children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life expectancy and maximum life span might increase very little if at all, or longevity might rise much faster than in the past. Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades in deepening understanding of how long humans have lived and how long they might live. The social, economic, health, cultural, and political consequences of further increases in longevity are so significant that the development of more powerful methods of forecasting is a priority.

AbstractIn Denmark and Sweden, statutory retirement age is indexed to life expectancy to account for mortality improvements in their populations. However, mortality improvements have not been uniform across different sub-populations. Notably, in both countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status (SES) have experienced slower mortality improvements. As a result, a uniform rise in the statutory retirement age could disproportionally affect these low-SES groups and may unintentionally lead to a reverse redistribution effect, shifting benefits from short-lived low-SES individuals to long-lived high-SES individuals. The aim of this study is twofold: to quantify and contextualise mortality inequalities by SES in Denmark and Sweden, and to assess how indexing retirement age will affect future survival to retirement age by SES in these countries. We used Danish and Swedish registry data (1988–2019), to aggregate individuals aged 50 + based on their demographic characteristics and SES. We computed period life tables by year, sex, and SES to estimate the difference in survival across different SES groups. We then forecast mortality across SES groups to assess how indexing retirement age will affect survival inequalities to retirement age, using two forecasting models—the Mode model and the Li-Lee model. Mortality inequalities are comparable in Denmark and Sweden, even though the latter generally has higher survival. We also find that indexing retirement age to life expectancy will have two main consequences: it will reduce the probability of reaching retirement for all SES groups, particularly those of low SES, and time spent in retirement will be reduced, particularly for those of high SES.

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Abbreviations -- Editors' Introduction: Simondon, Finally -- Chapter 1 Technical Mentality -- Explications -- Chapter 2 'Technical Mentality' Revisited: Brian Massumi on Gilbert Simondon -- Chapter 3 Identity and Individuation: Some Feminist Reflections -- Chapter 4 Crystals and Membranes: Individuation and Temporality -- Implications -- Chapter 5 The Question of Anxiety in Gilbert Simondon -- Chapter 6 Infra-Psychic Individualization: Transductive Connections and the Genesis of Living Techniques -- Chapter 7 'Du mort qui saisit le vif ': Simondonian Ontology Today -- Chapter 8 The Aesthetics of Gilbert Simondon: Anticipation of the Contemporary Aesthetic Experience -- Resonances -- Chapter 9 Gilles Deleuze, a Reader of Gilbert Simondon -- Chapter 10 Science and Ontology: From Merleau- Ponty's 'Reduction' to Simondon's 'Transduction' -- Chapter 11 The Question of the Individual in Georges Canguilhem and Gilbert Simondon -- Chapter 12 The Theatre of Individuation: Phase- Shift and Resolution in Simondon and Heidegger -- Glossary: Fifty Key Terms in the Works of Gilbert Simondon -- Notes on Contributors -- Index