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At a time where the amount of food produced worldwide is sufficient to feed all, the number of food-insecure people remains high. This article presents an analysis of a number of futures studies on food and agriculture, at both local and global scale, and using quantitative and qualitative methods, with a specific focus on how they frame and address food security. After identifying future key drivers of change, implications for food security are discussed. The results show that futures studies in agriculture are entering into a third generation where key drivers of change include social and political forces as potential sources of discontinuities. It is proposed to move the field of futures studies from the exploration of food security to the exploration of food insecurity, whose multiple roots are anchored in social, political, economic and institutional dimensions, and to focus these future studies on ruptures and discontinuities rather than trends. ; http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1759-5436 ; hb2017 ; Political Sciences

At a time where the amount of food produced worldwide is sufficient to feed all, the number of food-insecure people remains high. This article presents an analysis of a number of futures studies on food and agriculture, at both local and global scale, and using quantitative and qualitative methods, with a specific focus on how they frame and address food security. After identifying future key drivers of change, implications for food security are discussed. The results show that futures studies in agriculture are entering into a third generation where key drivers of change include social and political forces as potential sources of discontinuities. It is proposed to move the field of futures studies from the exploration of food security to the exploration of food insecurity, whose multiple roots are anchored in social, political, economic and institutional dimensions, and to focus these future studies on ruptures and discontinuities rather than trends.

Actionable foresight for food and agriculture faces the double challenge of including, and impacting on multiple stakeholders. We present here a state of the art of participation, stakeholder inclusion and impact of 38 recent foresight studies on food and agriculture. All cases were selected through a worldwide survey in seven languages, a bibliography and multi-lingual web review, and a review by a group of foresight experts. Our results indicate that global foresight studies are led by experts or scientists from international organizations or national organizations from advanced countries, with rather limited participation of stakeholders, while more local studies are more inclusive and directly linked to policy making. Leadership in foresight by least developed countries', farmers' or civil society's organizations is marginal. While there is more than anecdotic evidence of the impact of these foresight works, this is rarely documented. The paper combines literature review and case study to provide evidence on the links between stakeholder inclusion and impact and presents the Global Foresight Hub, an innovative initiative at global level for strengthening participation, inclusion and impact of foresight in food and agriculture.

This paper draws upon the results of various research works undertaken between 1998 and 2007 in Indonesia while the author was working at the Centre for Poverty Alleviation through Sustainable Agriculture (CAPSA), in Bogor Indonesia. CAPSA, formerly the Coarse Grains, Pulses, Roots and Tubers (CGPRT) Centre is a subsidiary body of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. It intends here to discuss the implications of the multiple dimensions of poverty based on field observations and to relate them to policy issues with a focus on poverty alleviation in rural areas and the role of agriculture in poverty alleviation. After setting the stage with a policy matrix framework, it raises a couple of challenges about poverty in rural areas with a focus on agriculture and then provide field based evidence of the role of agriculture in poverty alleviation and the conditions under which one might expect agriculture to significantly contribute to reducing poverty. Field evidence is largely based on Indonesian situations. In the final part of this paper the future challenges of poverty reduction are discussed with a forward looking anticipatory approach based on recent works the author analysed in his current position of Senior Foresight and Development Policies expert with the Executive Secretariat of the Global Forum on Agricultural research. The study of farm trajectories indicate that agriculture has potential as a buffer against crisis and shocks and therefore can contribute to rural poverty alleviation, but it is neither sufficient nor necessary. This is further confirmed by the case of tree crops showing what would be the requirements for a household to reach cross-generation resilience. With a case of secondary crops we see that it is possible to define a framework for poverty alleviation which is people- centered. All these cases converge towards a shift in the concept of battling poverty, switching from a growth-based technological paradigm to a human-centered understanding of the drivers of rural poverty. The analysis of foresight works, though not centered on poverty enables us to derive implications in terms of poverty reduction according to different scenarios. Thus, the role of social sciences and humanities is to contribute to our understanding of the transformations which are shaping the paths to the different scenarios and inform about the actions that would lead to one or another, so that the future state of poverty will not be longer the results of implicit effects of human agency but the results of explicit societal choices.

International audience ; Agribusiness value chains in developing countries have experienced the impact of a double State reform process. The first generation of reforms imposed through the Washington Consensus aimed at economic stabilization, reduction of State budget deficits, and removal of trade barriers. The second generation focuses more on institution building in particular the creation of effective and independent regulatory agencies. This process puts institutional change in the foreground and therefore faces the resistance of entrenched vested interests. This paper develops the concept of quaternary institutions, that is, constitutive institutions for governance and discusses the conditions of emergence of new co-ordination rules in agribusiness value chains in developing countries that favour the inclusion of smallholders and less powerful stakeholders. A brief review of relevant concepts in institutional economics is conducted to clarify the role, the forms and the functions of these institutions. It leads to paying special attention to information generation and sharing as a crucial factor of institutional change. The role diverse actors such as the State, private organisations and external bodies can play in the emergence of quaternary institutions is then highlighted.

International audience ; Agribusiness value chains in developing countries have experienced the impact of a double State reform process. The first generation of reforms imposed through the Washington Consensus aimed at economic stabilization, reduction of State budget deficits, and removal of trade barriers. The second generation focuses more on institution building in particular the creation of effective and independent regulatory agencies. This process puts institutional change in the foreground and therefore faces the resistance of entrenched vested interests. This paper develops the concept of quaternary institutions, that is, constitutive institutions for governance and discusses the conditions of emergence of new co-ordination rules in agribusiness value chains in developing countries that favour the inclusion of smallholders and less powerful stakeholders. A brief review of relevant concepts in institutional economics is conducted to clarify the role, the forms and the functions of these institutions. It leads to paying special attention to information generation and sharing as a crucial factor of institutional change. The role diverse actors such as the State, private organisations and external bodies can play in the emergence of quaternary institutions is then highlighted.

Agribusiness value chains in developing countries have experienced the impact of a double State reform process. The first generation of reforms imposed through the Washington Consensus aimed at economic stabilization, reduction of State budget deficits, and removal of trade barriers. The second generation focuses more on institution building in particular the creation of effective and independent regulatory agencies. This process puts institutional change in the foreground and therefore faces the resistance of entrenched vested interests. This paper develops the concept of quaternary institutions, that is, constitutive institutions for governance and discusses the conditions of emergence of new co-ordination rules in agribusiness value chains in developing countries that favour the inclusion of smallholders and less powerful stakeholders. A brief review of relevant concepts in institutional economics is conducted to clarify the role, the forms and the functions of these institutions. It leads to paying special attention to information generation and sharing as a crucial factor of institutional change. The role diverse actors such as the State, private organisations and external bodies can play in the emergence of quaternary institutions is then highlighted.

Cette fiche technique résume les méthodes utilisées, les acquis et les perspectives envisageables au terme d'un projet mené en Indonésie et au Viet-Nam depuis 1998 par le Cirad-Amis-Ecopol, visant à développer des méthodes et outils d'appui à la prise de décision publique en matière de politique agricole

Ce rapport de mission est établi en deux parties : d'abord, les possibilités de mise en oeuvre d'un appui institutionnel auprès du Ministère de l'agriculture du Cambodge, pour l'élaboration de politiques agricoles et rurales, dans un contexte de changement structurel rapide. Dans la seconde partie, sont exposées des propositions de stratégie d'appui institutionnel, portant aussi bien sur les orientations que les modes opérationnels et les actions à mettre en oeuvre . La conclusion confirme la nécessité et la faisabilité de cet appui et présente un schéma de conception pour le futur Projet d'appui institutionnel au Ministère de l'agriculture

Le cocotier et ses produits jouent un rôle important en Indonésie, tant dans l'économie domestique que nationale, contribuant à ces deux échelons à la satisfaction des besoins de consommation, mais aussi à la création d'un revenu monétaire régulier. Suite à une conjoncture économique défavorable des échanges nationaux en huile alimentaire, un vaste programme de développement de la cocoteraie villageoise a été initié en 1979. Les résultats décevant obtenus à ce jour témoignent des difficultés rencontrées pour sa réalisation. La recherche en terme d'analyse méthodologique des acteurs et facteurs de l'organisation économique et sociale de la production met en évidence la dynamique de la relation adoption de l'innovation-rapports sociaux communautaires et explicite les comportements individuels et collectifs observés.

L'existence d'un déterminisme de la croissance de la production agricole sur la sortie de pauvreté des ménages ruraux reste incertaine. L'hypothèse d'une telle relation est testée sur un panel de ménages agricoles indonésiens enquêté en 2001 et 2006. L'étude des trajectoires de statu quo , sortie, et entrée en pauvreté montre que la croissance agricole est une condition ni nécessaire, ni suffisante pour sortir de la pauvreté mais offre une certaine protection contre l'appauvrissement. Les activités non agricoles expliquent les différentes trajectoires. Cela signifie que la lutte contre la pauvreté en milieu rural n'est pas une simple affaire de productivité agricole.

National audience ; Dans la communication proposée les auteurs se fixent pour objectif de tester, dans le contexte de l'Indonésie, l'hypothèse d'une amélioration de la productivité agricole comme voie privilégiée de sortie de la pauvreté en milieu rural. A partir d'un échantillon de 1200 ménages agricoles répartis dans neuf provinces de l'archipel et formant un panel enquêté successivement en 2001 et en 2006, nous établissons tout d'abord une typologie de trajectoires permettant de regrouper les ménages dans des trajectoires de statu quo, de sortie de pauvreté et d'entrée en pauvreté. La croissance agricole est une condition ni nécessaire ni suffisante pour sortir de la pauvreté, mais représente une protection contre l'appauvrissement. Les activités non agricoles expliquent les différentes trajectoires. Parallèlement, l'hypothèse des inégalités n'est pas déterminante de la sortie de pauvreté du moins pour l'échantillon de ménages analysé. La grande variabilité observée semble indiquer la prégnance du facteur humain comme raison des changements et plaide en faveur d'approches de développement non monocausales. En conséquence, plutôt que d'abandonner le secteur rural aux forces du marché, l'intervention publique permettrait d'améliorer les conditions de vue des ménages agricoles en se concentrant sur des investissements structurels d'aménagement du territoire ayant pour effet de multiplier les opportunités économiques.