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Abstract Context Forest fire activity is expected to increase in many parts of the globe over the course of the 21st century, with corresponding potential for heightened levels of proximate and ultimate threats to avian diversity. Landscape-scale investigations of the responses of birds in locations where current extreme fire regimes represent those expected in the future provide opportunities to identify potentially vulnerable species in advance. Autonomous acoustic recorders are well suited to survey birds in the typically large and remote natural areas with low accessibility required for these types of studies, because they offer cost-effective and relatively safe options for obtaining reliable data. Aims The present study aimed to optimise survey using acoustic recorders to achieve a satisfactory assessment of montane dry sclerophyll forest bird assemblages using these devices. Survey completeness, or the number of species detected as a percentage of total species, was used as a metric to gauge survey suitability. Methods Acoustic recorders were deployed in 10 ridge-top forest sites in the Blue Mountains, south-eastern Australia. Extensive field recordings were processed by an analyst, with species detected by their calls recorded in a series of 20-min samples. A results-based approach, incorporating a stopping rule that established when to conclude sampling at a site, was applied to the data. The results guided the target survey completeness and sampling effort levels assigned to a set of fixed-effort survey methods, which were subsequently evaluated. Key results The optimal survey method involved using recordings from five 20-min sampling periods immediately following dawn for 2 days, achieving an average survey completeness level of 69%. Conclusions The optimal survey method can obtain results that are suitable for many types of studies involving assessments of bird assemblages, because the method can detect all common and moderately common species in assemblages, plus a fair proportion of rare species. Implications The present study has systematically developed an effective method of using autonomous acoustic recorders to research and monitor montane bird assemblages in fire-prone dry sclerophyll forests. This methodological approach may also be applied in systems subject to altered patterns of flood, storm or other extreme weather under climate change.

Rising atmospheric [CO2] and associated climate change are expected to modify primary productivity across a range of ecosystems globally. Increasing aridity is predicted to reduce grassland productivity, although rising [CO2] and associated increases in plant water use efficiency may partially offset the effect of drying on growth. Difficulties arise in predicting the direction and magnitude of future changes in ecosystem productivity, due to limited field experimentation investigating climate and CO2 interactions. We use repeat near‐surface digital photography to quantify the effects of water availability and experimentally manipulated elevated [CO2] (eCO2) on understorey live foliage cover and biomass over three growing seasons in a temperate grassy woodland in south‐eastern Australia. We hypothesised that (i) understorey herbaceous productivity is dependent upon soil water availability, and (ii) that eCO2 will increase productivity, with greatest stimulation occurring under conditions of low water availability. Soil volumetric water content (VWC) determined foliage cover and growth rates over the length of the growing season (August to March), with low VWC (<0.1 m3 m−3) reducing productivity. However, eCO2 did not increase herbaceous cover and biomass over the duration of the experiment, or mitigate the effects of low water availability on understorey growth rates and cover. Our findings suggest that projected increases in aridity in temperate woodlands are likely to lead to reduced understorey productivity, with little scope for eCO2 to offset these changes. ; The EucFACE experiment is funded by the Australian Government, through the Education Investment Fund, the Department of Industry and Science and the Australian Research Council, and Western Sydney University. Funding for the cameras and data analysis was provided by Australian Research Council Discovery Grant number 130102576. The stereo camera and application development was funded by the Western Sydney University Internal Research Scheme. VRD acknowledges funding from a Ramón y Cajal fellowship (RYC‐2012‐10970).

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environ- ments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels. ; This research was partly financially supported by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. V.R.D. was funded by the Spanish Government (RYC-2012-10970; AGL2015-69151-R). The authors thank M. de Luis, R. Serrano and G. Devine for their assistance with data access. All analyses are based on publically available data from sources listed in the references

Globally, fire regimes are being altered by changing climatic conditions. New fire regimes have the potential to drive species extinctions and cause ecosystem state changes, with a range of consequences for ecosystem services. Despite the co-occurrence of forest fires with drought, current approaches to modelling flammability largely overlook the large body of research into plant vulnerability to drought. Here, we outline the mechanisms through which plant responses to drought may affect forest flammability, specifically fuel moisture and the ratio of dead to live fuels. We present a framework for modelling live fuel moisture content (moisture content of foliage and twigs) from soil water content and plant traits, including rooting patterns and leaf traits such as the turgor loss point, osmotic potential, elasticity and leaf mass per area. We also present evidence that physiological drought stress may contribute to previously observed fuel moisture thresholds in south-eastern Australia. Of particular relevance is leaf cavitation and subsequent shedding, which transforms live fuels into dead fuels, which are drier, and thus easier to ignite. We suggest that capitalising on drought research to inform wildfire research presents a major opportunity to develop new insights into wildfires, and new predictive models of seasonal fuel dynamics. ; We thank the New South Wales Government's Department of Planning, Industry and Environment for providing funds to support this research via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub; the Spanish Government (RYC-2012-10970, AGL2015-69151-R); an Australian Research Council Linkage grant with the New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (LP140100232); and an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT130101115).