Suchergebnisse

Erstmals trägt dieses nationale Assessment den Forschungsstand zum Klimawandel umfassend für alle Themenbereiche und gesellschaftlichen Sektoren zusammen. Womit müssen wir in Deutschland rechnen, welche Auswirkungen werden die Klimaveränderungen auf Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft haben, und wie können wir uns wappnen? 126 Autoren aus ganz Deutschland äußern sich zu Themen wie bereits beobachtete und zukünftige Veränderungen, Wetterkatastrophen und deren Folgen, den Projektionen für die Zukunft, den Risiken sowie möglichen Anpassungsstrategien. Die Autoren stellen in verständlicher Sprache den aktuellen Forschungsstand dar und veranschaulichen die wichtigsten Gedanken in Grafiken und Tabellen. Alle Texte wurden mehrfach wissenschaftlich begutachtet. Klimawandel in Deutschland ist die erste Gesamtschau zu dem Themenkomplex, benennt offene Fragestellungen und liefert eine Grundlage für Entscheidungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Klimawandel. Deutschland reiht sich damit ein in die Liste von Ländern wie die Vereinigten Staaten, Österreich und Großbritannien, in denen derartige Berichte bereits vorliegen. Die Herausgeber: Prof. Dr. Guy Brasseur und Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob, ehemaliger Direktor und gegenwärtige Direktorin des Climate Center Germany/Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, und Susanne Schuck-Zöller, die auch die Projektleitung übernommen hat, werden bei diesem Buch unterstützt von einem Editorial Board, dem elf herausragende Wissenschaftler aus den wichtigsten Klimaforschungseinrichtungen in Deutschland angehören

climate change; climatology

Frontmatter -- Sommaire -- Avant-propos -- Préface -- Partie 1 Les variations multi-décennales et séculaires du climat -- Chapitre 1 : Le changement climatique : perspectives et implications pour le XXIe siècle -- Chapitre 2 : La compréhension du changement climatique, de ses sources à sa modélisation : questions encore ouvertes ? -- Chapitre 3 : Fluctuations climatiques extrêmes et sociétés au cours du dernier millénaire -- Partie 2 La chimie : un outil pour l'étude du changement climatique -- Chapitre 4 : La chimie de la glace : une archive de notre environnement passé -- Chapitre 5 : La hausse du niveau de la mer : observations et projections -- Chapitre 6 : Chimie atmosphérique et climat -- Partie 3 La transformation du système énergétique pour assainir notre atmosphère et gérer le risque climatique -- Chapitre 7 : Que faire du CO2 ? De la chimie ! -- Chapitre 8 : Actions des entreprises de la chimie au service de la lutte contre le changement climatique -- Chapitre 9 : Prix du baril et énergies renouvelables -- Chapitre 10 : La complexité du réseau et l'électricité verte -- Partie 4 La chimie pour se passer des combustibles fossiles -- Chapitre 11 : La chimie face aux défis de la transformation du système énergétique -- Chapitre 12 : Les microalgues : pour quoi faire ? -- Chapitre 13 : L'hydrogène, vecteur de la transition énergétique

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil‐free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase‐out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth‐system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

The real-time monitoring of reductions of economic activity by containment measures and its effect on the transmission of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is a critical unanswered question. We inferred 5,642 weekly activity anomalies from the meteorology-adjusted differences in spaceborne tropospheric NO(2) column concentrations after the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak relative to the baseline from 2016 to 2019. Two satellite observations reveal reincreasing economic activity associated with lifting control measures that comes together with accelerating COVID-19 cases before the winter of 2020/2021. Application of the near-real-time satellite NO(2) observations produces a much better prediction of the deceleration of COVID-19 cases than applying the Oxford Government Response Tracker, the Public Health and Social Measures, or human mobility data as alternative predictors. A convergent cross-mapping suggests that economic activity reduction inferred from NO(2) is a driver of case deceleration in most of the territories. This effect, however, is not linear, while further activity reductions were associated with weaker deceleration. Over the winter of 2020/2021, nearly 1 million daily COVID-19 cases could have been avoided by optimizing the timing and strength of activity reduction relative to a scenario based on the real distribution. Our study shows how satellite observations can provide surrogate data for activity reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic and monitor the effectiveness of containment to the pandemic before vaccines become widely available.

International audience ; To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders.

International audience ; To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders.

International audience ; To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders.