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Counterurbanization in developed countries has been one of the main foci of migration research in recent years. The existence of the phenomenon in the Federal Republic of Germany has been debated. In this paper, net migration data, disaggregated by age, are utilized to examine the existence of metropolitan turnaround in the FRG for the period 1978–85. These data are provided at the county level (328 Kreise) which is more detailed than other spatial aggregation levels utilized in previous studies. In addition, use is made of two yearly migration matrices for 1977 and 1983 at the regional planning area level. In this paper, the coexistence of suburbanization and counterurbanization for the 1978–85 time period is demonstrated. Young adults, 18–25 years of age, gravitated towards the urban cores of metropolitan areas and smaller urban areas. All the other age-groups moved mainly towards the outer suburbs of metropolitan areas, the suburbs of second-tier cities, and the rural counties. The two migration matrices indicate that counterurbanization at the level of regional planning areas was not present in 1977 but started in 1978 and it was present in 1983. At the same spatial level, evidence of a net gain of metropolitan areas from second-tier cities and rural areas is also provided for 1977. This pattern was reversed for the 1978–85 period.

BACKGROUND: Following the regional outbreak in China, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread all over the world, presenting the healthcare systems with huge challenges worldwide. In Germany the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a slowly growing demand for health care with a sudden occurrence of regional hotspots. This leads to an unpredictable situation for many hospitals, leaving the question of how many bed resources are needed to cope with the surge of COVID-19 patients. OBJECTIVE: In this study we created a simulation-based prognostic tool that provides the management of the University Hospital of Augsburg and the civil protection services with the necessary information to plan and guide the disaster response to the ongoing pandemic. Especially the number of beds needed on isolation wards and intensive care units (ICU) are the biggest concerns. The focus should lie not only on the confirmed cases as the patients with suspected COVID-19 are in need of the same resources. MATERIAL AND METHODS: For the input we used the latest information provided by governmental institutions about the spreading of the disease, with a special focus on the growth rate of the cumulative number of cases. Due to the dynamics of the current situation, these data can be highly variable. To minimize the influence of this variance, we designed distribution functions for the parameters growth rate, length of stay in hospital and the proportion of infected people who need to be hospitalized in our area of responsibility. Using this input, we started a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 runs to predict the range of the number of hospital beds needed within the coming days and compared it with the available resources. RESULTS: Since 2 February 2020 a total of 306 patients were treated with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 at this university hospital. Of these 84 needed treatment on the ICU. With the help of several simulation-based forecasts, the required ICU and normal bed ...

The aim of the memorandum on the development of health services research (HSR) in Bavaria is to operationalise the global objectives of the State Working Group "Health Services Research" (LAGeV) and to collectively define future topics, specific implementation steps, methods as well as ways of working for the future course of the LAGeV. The LAGeV is an expert committee that integrates and links the competencies of different actors from science, politics and health care regarding HSR and facilitates their cooperation. The memorandum is based on an explorative survey among the LAGeV members, which identified the status quo of health services research in Bavaria, potential for development, important constraints, promoting factors, specific recommendations as well as future topics for the further development of HSR in Bavaria. From the perspective of the LAGeV members, the 12 most important future topics are: 1) Interface and networking research, 2) Innovative health care concepts, 3) Health care for multimorbidpatients, 4)Health care for chronically ill patients, 5) Evaluation of innovations, processes and technologies, 6) Patient orientation and user focus, 7) Social and regional inequalities in health care, 8) Health care for mentally ill patients, 9) Indicators of health care quality, 10) Regional needs planning, 11) Practical effectiveness of HSR and 12) Scientific use of routine data. Potential for development of HSR in Bavaria lies a) in the promotion of networking and sustainable structures, b) the establishment of an HSR information platform that bundles information and results in regard to current topics and aims to facilitate cooperation as well as c) in the initiation of measures and projects. The latter ought to pinpoint health care challenges and make recommendations regarding the improvement of health care and its quality. The cooperation and networking structures that were established with the LAGeV should be continuously expanded and be used to work on priority topics in order to achieve the globalobjectives of the LAGeV.