The failure of structural flood control to mitigate economic losses has lead to a shift towards new policies: floodplain restoration and vulnerability reduction. The economic appraisal of these policies requires an in-depth evaluation of agricultural damage as they are key indicators to determine the efficiency of these policies. However, existing methods only consider harvest loss. We consider that farm vulnerability depends on sensitivity and ability to recover leading respectively to direct damage and induced damage on activity. Based on this, we propose a vulnerability model which allows evaluating the whole of these damages. Three farmer's profiles are defined depending on their ability to access to external resources (workforce and equipment) to recover after flooding. The "Internal" profile has no external resource as opposed to the "Service" and "Solidarity" profiles which can respectively rely on service providing and solidarity. The model is applied to evaluate damages on three farm types of the Rhône River downstream area with a financial and economic valuation. This reveals that damages endured by the profile "Internal" are much higher than those of the two other profiles. Then, avoided damages resulting from the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability are evaluated. We prove that these measures are more efficient and can be implemented with Benefit-Cost ratio higher than one, only for the frequently flooded farms. Mitigation measures are also more efficient for the profile "Internal". To organize solidarity between farms emerges as one of the most interesting measure for all farm types. ; L'échec des politiques structurelles de gestion des inondations à réduire les dommages a orienté les décideurs publics vers la restauration de zones de rétention et la réduction de la vulnérabilité. L'évaluation économique de ces politiques requiert une évaluation fine des dommages agricoles car ils contribuent fortement à déterminer leur efficacité. Or, les méthodes existantes n'intègrent que ...
The failure of structural flood control to mitigate economic losses has lead to a shift towards new policies: floodplain restoration and vulnerability reduction. The economic appraisal of these policies requires an in-depth evaluation of agricultural damage as they are key indicators to determine the efficiency of these policies. However, existing methods only consider harvest loss. We consider that farm vulnerability depends on sensitivity and ability to recover leading respectively to direct damage and induced damage on activity. Based on this, we propose a vulnerability model which allows evaluating the whole of these damages. Three farmer's profiles are defined depending on their ability to access to external resources (workforce and equipment) to recover after flooding. The "Internal" profile has no external resource as opposed to the "Service" and "Solidarity" profiles which can respectively rely on service providing and solidarity. The model is applied to evaluate damages on three farm types of the Rhône River downstream area with a financial and economic valuation. This reveals that damages endured by the profile "Internal" are much higher than those of the two other profiles. Then, avoided damages resulting from the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability are evaluated. We prove that these measures are more efficient and can be implemented with Benefit-Cost ratio higher than one, only for the frequently flooded farms. Mitigation measures are also more efficient for the profile "Internal". To organize solidarity between farms emerges as one of the most interesting measure for all farm types. ; L'échec des politiques structurelles de gestion des inondations à réduire les dommages a orienté les décideurs publics vers la restauration de zones de rétention et la réduction de la vulnérabilité. L'évaluation économique de ces politiques requiert une évaluation fine des dommages agricoles car ils contribuent fortement à déterminer leur efficacité. Or, les méthodes existantes n'intègrent que les pertes de récolte. Considérant que la vulnérabilité des exploitations agricoles dépend de la sensibilité et de la capacité à se remettre en route, entraînant respectivement des dommages directs et induits sur l'activité, nous proposons un modèle conceptuel de vulnérabilité permettant l'évaluation de l'ensemble de ces dommages. Trois profils d'exploitants sont définis selon la possibilité de mobiliser des ressources externes (main d'œuvre et matériel) pour la remise en route. Le profil Interne ne dispose d'aucune ressource externe contrairement aux profils Prestation et Solidarité. Après implémentation, le modèle a permis d'évaluer les dommages de trois exploitations types sur le Rhône aval avec une valorisation financière puis économique. Les dommages supportés par les exploitants de profil Interne sont plus élevés que ceux des deux autres profils. Les dommages évités par la mise en place de mesures de réduction de la vulnérabilité sur ces trois exploitations sont ensuite évalués. Nous montrons que les mesures sont plus efficaces et peuvent être mises en œuvre avec un ratio bénéfice-coût supérieur à un, pour les exploitations fréquemment inondées. Elles sont également plus efficaces pour les profils Interne, la mise en œuvre de la solidarité se dégageant comme une mesure intéressante pour toutes les exploitations.
The failure of structural flood control to mitigate economic losses has lead to a shift towards new policies: floodplain restoration and vulnerability reduction. The economic appraisal of these policies requires an in-depth evaluation of agricultural damage as they are key indicators to determine the efficiency of these policies. However, existing methods only consider harvest loss. We consider that farm vulnerability depends on sensitivity and ability to recover leading respectively to direct damage and induced damage on activity. Based on this, we propose a vulnerability model which allows evaluating the whole of these damages. Three farmer's profiles are defined depending on their ability to access to external resources (workforce and equipment) to recover after flooding. The "Internal" profile has no external resource as opposed to the "Service" and "Solidarity" profiles which can respectively rely on service providing and solidarity. The model is applied to evaluate damages on three farm types of the Rhône River downstream area with a financial and economic valuation. This reveals that damages endured by the profile "Internal" are much higher than those of the two other profiles. Then, avoided damages resulting from the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability are evaluated. We prove that these measures are more efficient and can be implemented with Benefit-Cost ratio higher than one, only for the frequently flooded farms. Mitigation measures are also more efficient for the profile "Internal". To organize solidarity between farms emerges as one of the most interesting measure for all farm types. ; L'échec des politiques structurelles de gestion des inondations à réduire les dommages a orienté les décideurs publics vers la restauration de zones de rétention et la réduction de la vulnérabilité. L'évaluation économique de ces politiques requiert une évaluation fine des dommages agricoles car ils contribuent fortement à déterminer leur efficacité. Or, les méthodes existantes n'intègrent que les pertes de récolte. Considérant que la vulnérabilité des exploitations agricoles dépend de la sensibilité et de la capacité à se remettre en route, entraînant respectivement des dommages directs et induits sur l'activité, nous proposons un modèle conceptuel de vulnérabilité permettant l'évaluation de l'ensemble de ces dommages. Trois profils d'exploitants sont définis selon la possibilité de mobiliser des ressources externes (main d'œuvre et matériel) pour la remise en route. Le profil Interne ne dispose d'aucune ressource externe contrairement aux profils Prestation et Solidarité. Après implémentation, le modèle a permis d'évaluer les dommages de trois exploitations types sur le Rhône aval avec une valorisation financière puis économique. Les dommages supportés par les exploitants de profil Interne sont plus élevés que ceux des deux autres profils. Les dommages évités par la mise en place de mesures de réduction de la vulnérabilité sur ces trois exploitations sont ensuite évalués. Nous montrons que les mesures sont plus efficaces et peuvent être mises en œuvre avec un ratio bénéfice-coût supérieur à un, pour les exploitations fréquemment inondées. Elles sont également plus efficaces pour les profils Interne, la mise en œuvre de la solidarité se dégageant comme une mesure intéressante pour toutes les exploitations.
National audience ; Dans le domaine des inondations, il est de plus en plus prôné des politiques affichant de fait une coexistence des enjeux avec le risque. Le pari de ces politiques reposent sur la possibilité d'adapter efficacement les enjeux situés en zone inondable, plutôt que de les soustraire à l'inondation. Dans un contexte où il est demandé aux gestionnaires d'évaluer l'efficience des projets pour lesquels ils demandent des subventions à différents échelons (locaux, nationaux voire européens) par le biais d'analyse de type coût-bénéfice, ces politiques nécessitent un développement méthodologique pour analyser la vulnérabilité des enjeux et quantifier ainsi, en terme de dommages évités, les bienfaits de leur adaptation. Ces politiques, notamment celles de « restauration des zones d'expansion de crues » ou de « réduction de la vulnérabilité » concernent plus particulièrement le secteur agricole. C'est par exemple le cas sur la basse vallée du Rhône. Nous avons développé, en lien avec les gestionnaires du Rhône, le modèle EVA permettant de répondre à ces exigences pour les exploitations agricoles. Nous montrons comment cette modélisation systémique des exploitations agricoles permet d'estimer plusieurs sources de dommages. Premièrement, cette modélisation permet de tenir compte de ce qui est classiquement considéré, c'est-à-dire les dommages directement en lien avec l'endommagement des composantes physiques de l'exploitation (bâtiments, outils, stocks, parcelles etc.). Elle permet également de tenir compte des conséquences induites sur l'activité de l'exploitation du fait de la perturbation de son organisation interne comme de ses liens avec son environnement (filières amont et aval, marché du travail). Cette possibilité ouvre la possibilité de considérer l'évaluation des politiques dites de « réduction de la vulnérabilité » qui visent à modifier l'organisation des exploitations pour les rendre plus adaptées aux inondations.
National audience ; Dans le domaine des inondations, il est de plus en plus prôné des politiques affichant de fait une coexistence des enjeux avec le risque. Le pari de ces politiques reposent sur la possibilité d'adapter efficacement les enjeux situés en zone inondable, plutôt que de les soustraire à l'inondation. Dans un contexte où il est demandé aux gestionnaires d'évaluer l'efficience des projets pour lesquels ils demandent des subventions à différents échelons (locaux, nationaux voire européens) par le biais d'analyse de type coût-bénéfice, ces politiques nécessitent un développement méthodologique pour analyser la vulnérabilité des enjeux et quantifier ainsi, en terme de dommages évités, les bienfaits de leur adaptation. Ces politiques, notamment celles de « restauration des zones d'expansion de crues » ou de « réduction de la vulnérabilité » concernent plus particulièrement le secteur agricole. C'est par exemple le cas sur la basse vallée du Rhône. Nous avons développé, en lien avec les gestionnaires du Rhône, le modèle EVA permettant de répondre à ces exigences pour les exploitations agricoles. Nous montrons comment cette modélisation systémique des exploitations agricoles permet d'estimer plusieurs sources de dommages. Premièrement, cette modélisation permet de tenir compte de ce qui est classiquement considéré, c'est-à-dire les dommages directement en lien avec l'endommagement des composantes physiques de l'exploitation (bâtiments, outils, stocks, parcelles etc.). Elle permet également de tenir compte des conséquences induites sur l'activité de l'exploitation du fait de la perturbation de son organisation interne comme de ses liens avec son environnement (filières amont et aval, marché du travail). Cette possibilité ouvre la possibilité de considérer l'évaluation des politiques dites de « réduction de la vulnérabilité » qui visent à modifier l'organisation des exploitations pour les rendre plus adaptées aux inondations.
En France, peu de travaux ont été consacrés à la caractérisation de la vulnérabilité des zones agricoles exposées aux inondations, encore moins à son utilisation dans le cadre d'une évaluation économique de politique de gestion des inondations. Nous proposons dans cet article un modèle conceptuel de la vulnérabilité agricole pouvant servir à une telle évaluation, lorsque les politiques visent à une modification de l'événement physique à l'origine de l'inondation ou à une modification de la vulnérabilité des enjeux exposés à cet événement. / Flood management policies promoted by French government impact agriculture land in two ways. Firstly, they may be designated as potential areas for flood expansion. Secondly, since the 2003 law, local authorities have the right to flood these areas more than those which have been deemed to be more vulnerable (urban areas). Meanwhile, policy-driven appraisals of flood management projects are becoming commonplace in France. This highlights the need to better understand agricultural vulnerability and to develop methods for quantifying it. To introduce our approach, we first present the research conducted by Plan Loire which marks a shift away from existing practices of agriculture vulnerability assessment by considering vulnerability at the farm scale rather than at the plot scale. Based on ex-post flood damage assessment and the results of stakeholders questionnaires in the agricultural sector, forty seven determinants of farm vulnerability to flooding were identified and classified. These determinants were used to draft a guide for farmers. This guide aims to highlight the impacts their farm activities could face in case of flooding and to identify measures to mitigate their vulnerability. At the present, this guide is used along the Rhone River and will be probably used along the Loire River in the future. The current application of these guides to mitigate vulnerability of farms revealed the need for further research which is partly presented here. By focusing on the farming system, we aimed at providing a framework to economically assess agricultural vulnerability to flooding. Firstly, we identified flood effects at the farming system scale including possible interactions with the territorial scale, in order to propose a conceptual model which provides a framework for economic assessment. Finally, we discuss the implications for projects economic appraisal. The provided framework for agricultural vulnerability assessment would enable a selection of most efficient measures to mitigate farm vulnerability using a ratio depending on the agricultural context. It would also help to prioritize projects to reduce vulnerability by economic appraisal at a wider spatial scale such as water basin.
En France, peu de travaux ont été consacrés à la caractérisation de la vulnérabilité des zones agricoles exposées aux inondations, encore moins à son utilisation dans le cadre d'une évaluation économique de politique de gestion des inondations. Nous proposons dans cet article un modèle conceptuel de la vulnérabilité agricole pouvant servir à une telle évaluation, lorsque les politiques visent à une modification de l'événement physique à l'origine de l'inondation ou à une modification de la vulnérabilité des enjeux exposés à cet événement. / Flood management policies promoted by French government impact agriculture land in two ways. Firstly, they may be designated as potential areas for flood expansion. Secondly, since the 2003 law, local authorities have the right to flood these areas more than those which have been deemed to be more vulnerable (urban areas). Meanwhile, policy-driven appraisals of flood management projects are becoming commonplace in France. This highlights the need to better understand agricultural vulnerability and to develop methods for quantifying it. To introduce our approach, we first present the research conducted by Plan Loire which marks a shift away from existing practices of agriculture vulnerability assessment by considering vulnerability at the farm scale rather than at the plot scale. Based on ex-post flood damage assessment and the results of stakeholders questionnaires in the agricultural sector, forty seven determinants of farm vulnerability to flooding were identified and classified. These determinants were used to draft a guide for farmers. This guide aims to highlight the impacts their farm activities could face in case of flooding and to identify measures to mitigate their vulnerability. At the present, this guide is used along the Rhone River and will be probably used along the Loire River in the future. The current application of these guides to mitigate vulnerability of farms revealed the need for further research which is partly presented here. By focusing on the farming system, we aimed at providing a framework to economically assess agricultural vulnerability to flooding. Firstly, we identified flood effects at the farming system scale including possible interactions with the territorial scale, in order to propose a conceptual model which provides a framework for economic assessment. Finally, we discuss the implications for projects economic appraisal. The provided framework for agricultural vulnerability assessment would enable a selection of most efficient measures to mitigate farm vulnerability using a ratio depending on the agricultural context. It would also help to prioritize projects to reduce vulnerability by economic appraisal at a wider spatial scale such as water basin.
International audience ; Recent catastrophic flood events such as Elbe in 2002 or Rhône in 2003 have shown limits of flood management policies relying on dykes protection: worsening of flood impacts downstream, increased damage by dykes rupture. Those events, among others, contributes to radical changes on the philosophy of flood prevention, with the promotion of new orientations for mitigating flood exposition. Two new trends may have a significant impact on rural areas: floodplain restoration and vulnerability mitigation. The Rhône River program, which is an contract of objectives signed between French Government and local collectivites,is highly illustrative of these new trends and their impact on agricultural sector. In this program, it appears that areas to be concerned by floodplain restoration are agricultural ones, because their supposed vulnerability to flood is expected to be less important to urban areas. As a consequence, agricultural sector is particularly concerned by planned actions on mitigation of assets vulnerability, an important part of the program (financial support of European Union of 7.5 Million euros). Mitigation of agricultural assets vulnerability reveals particularly interesting for two following reasons. Firstly, it is a way to maintain agricultural activities in floodplains yet existing, without promoting flood protection. Secondly, in case of floodplain restoration, vulnerability mitigation is a way for local authorities to compensate over-flooding impacts. In practice, local authorities may financially support farmers for implementing measures to mitigate their farm vulnerability. On the Rhône River, an important work has already been done to identify farm vulnerability to flooding, and propose measures to mitigate it. More than 3 000 farms exposed to flood risk have been identified representing 88 690 ha of agricultural areas which is estimated to generate damage between 400 and 800 Million euros depending on the season of occurrence for a catastrophic flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness. . . The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling,in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions,which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling,we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which are needed to implement the model and to collect them, specifically using the focus group method; Based on the conceptual model, to program a mathematical model which will be used to simulate damage (direct and indirect) on farm due to flood. This last objective should enable us to appraise policy to mitigate vulnerability which is planned to be implemented on Rhône River at the individual and regional scale. Finally, we discuss the ossibility to use the UML modelling to develop a multi-agent system approach which could be interesting to take into account ties between farmers (solidarity, loan of equipment) or systemic effects due to the damage incurred by economic partners (loss of market share).
National audience ; Les politiques publiques de gestion des inondations s'orientent vers la restauration des champs d'expansion de crue et de réduction de la vulnérabilité, qui auront un impact important sur les exploitations agricoles. L'évaluation des effets de ces politiques sur les exploitations agricoles n'est pas envisageable avec les méthodologies actuelles et le retour d'expérience quasiment inexistant. Il était donc nécessaire de développer un modèle de simulation des dommages directs et induits en prenant en compte la dimension systémique de l'exploitation agricole. Pour cela, nous proposons un modèle conceptuel de la vulnérabilité à l'échelle de l'exploitation agricole et montrons comment il nous a permis de mettre en évidence l'importance des stratégies de gestion post-inondation pour la modélisation des dommages. Nous présentons ensuite les résultats des enquêtes réalisées sur les exploitations arboricoles de la zone aval du Rhône pour la caractérisation de ces stratégies. Enfin, nous montrons comment nous avons intégré dans le modèle de simulation des dommages, les données recueillies par enquêtes. Les premiers résultats de simulation des dommages confirment l'importance de prendre en compte les effets induits de l'inondation sur le système " exploitation agricole ". En perspective, l'utilisation du modèle de simulation des dommages dans le cadre d'une évaluation économique des politiques de réduction de la vulnérabilité des exploitations agricoles sur la zone aval du Rhône est discutée.
International audience ; Recent catastrophic flood events such as Elbe in 2002 or Rhône in 2003 have shown limits of flood management policies relying on dykes protection: worsening of flood impacts downstream, increased damage by dykes rupture. Those events, among others, contributes to radical changes on the philosophy of flood prevention, with the promotion of new orientations for mitigating flood exposition. Two new trends may have a significant impact on rural areas: floodplain restoration and vulnerability mitigation. The Rhône River program, which is an contract of objectives signed between French Government and local collectivites,is highly illustrative of these new trends and their impact on agricultural sector. In this program, it appears that areas to be concerned by floodplain restoration are agricultural ones, because their supposed vulnerability to flood is expected to be less important to urban areas. As a consequence, agricultural sector is particularly concerned by planned actions on mitigation of assets vulnerability, an important part of the program (financial support of European Union of 7.5 Million euros). Mitigation of agricultural assets vulnerability reveals particularly interesting for two following reasons. Firstly, it is a way to maintain agricultural activities in floodplains yet existing, without promoting flood protection. Secondly, in case of floodplain restoration, vulnerability mitigation is a way for local authorities to compensate over-flooding impacts. In practice, local authorities may financially support farmers for implementing measures to mitigate their farm vulnerability. On the Rhône River, an important work has already been done to identify farm vulnerability to flooding, and propose measures to mitigate it. More than 3 000 farms exposed to flood risk have been identified representing 88 690 ha of agricultural areas which is estimated to generate damage between 400 and 800 Million euros depending on the season of occurrence for a catastrophic flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness. . . The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling,in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions,which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling,we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which are needed to implement the model and to collect them, specifically using the focus group method; Based on the conceptual model, to program a mathematical model which will be used to simulate damage (direct and indirect) on farm due to flood. This last objective should enable us to appraise policy to mitigate vulnerability which is planned to be implemented on Rhône River at the individual and regional scale. Finally, we discuss the ossibility to use the UML modelling to develop a multi-agent system approach which could be interesting to take into account ties between farmers (solidarity, loan of equipment) or systemic effects due to the damage incurred by economic partners (loss of market share).
National audience ; Les politiques publiques de gestion des inondations s'orientent vers la restauration des champs d'expansion de crue et de réduction de la vulnérabilité, qui auront un impact important sur les exploitations agricoles. L'évaluation des effets de ces politiques sur les exploitations agricoles n'est pas envisageable avec les méthodologies actuelles et le retour d'expérience quasiment inexistant. Il était donc nécessaire de développer un modèle de simulation des dommages directs et induits en prenant en compte la dimension systémique de l'exploitation agricole. Pour cela, nous proposons un modèle conceptuel de la vulnérabilité à l'échelle de l'exploitation agricole et montrons comment il nous a permis de mettre en évidence l'importance des stratégies de gestion post-inondation pour la modélisation des dommages. Nous présentons ensuite les résultats des enquêtes réalisées sur les exploitations arboricoles de la zone aval du Rhône pour la caractérisation de ces stratégies. Enfin, nous montrons comment nous avons intégré dans le modèle de simulation des dommages, les données recueillies par enquêtes. Les premiers résultats de simulation des dommages confirment l'importance de prendre en compte les effets induits de l'inondation sur le système " exploitation agricole ". En perspective, l'utilisation du modèle de simulation des dommages dans le cadre d'une évaluation économique des politiques de réduction de la vulnérabilité des exploitations agricoles sur la zone aval du Rhône est discutée.
International audience ; Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. It is widely accepted that damage other than direct damage can account for a significant proportion of total damage. Yet due to scarcer data sources and lack of knowledge on links within and between economic activities, indirect impacts have received less attention than direct impacts. Furthermore, attempts to grasp indirect damage through economic models have not gone below regional levels. Even though local communities can be devastated by flood events without this being reflected in regional accounts, few studies have been conducted from a microeconomic perspective at local level. What is more, the standard practices applied at this level of analysis tackle entities but ignore how they may be linked. This paper addresses these two challenges by building a novel agent-based model of a local agricultural production chain (a French cooperative wine-making system), utilized as a virtual laboratory for the ex ante estimation of flood impacts. We show how overlooking existing interactions between economic entities in production chains can result in either overestimation (double counting) or underestimation (wrong estimation of the consequences for the activity) of flood damage. Our results also reveal that considering interactions requires thorough characterization of their spatial configuration. Based on both the application of our method and the results obtained, we propose balanced recommendations for flood damage estimation at local level.
International audience ; Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. It is widely accepted that damage other than direct damage can account for a significant proportion of total damage. Yet due to scarcer data sources and lack of knowledge on links within and between economic activities, indirect impacts have received less attention than direct impacts. Furthermore, attempts to grasp indirect damage through economic models have not gone below regional levels. Even though local communities can be devastated by flood events without this being reflected in regional accounts, few studies have been conducted from a microeconomic perspective at local level. What is more, the standard practices applied at this level of analysis tackle entities but ignore how they may be linked. This paper addresses these two challenges by building a novel agent-based model of a local agricultural production chain (a French cooperative wine-making system), utilized as a virtual laboratory for the ex ante estimation of flood impacts. We show how overlooking existing interactions between economic entities in production chains can result in either overestimation (double counting) or underestimation (wrong estimation of the consequences for the activity) of flood damage. Our results also reveal that considering interactions requires thorough characterization of their spatial configuration. Based on both the application of our method and the results obtained, we propose balanced recommendations for flood damage estimation at local level.
International audience ; Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. It is widely accepted that damage other than direct damage can account for a significant proportion of total damage. Yet due to scarcer data sources and lack of knowledge on links within and between economic activities, indirect impacts have received less attention than direct impacts. Furthermore, attempts to grasp indirect damage through economic models have not gone below regional levels. Even though local communities can be devastated by flood events without this being reflected in regional accounts, few studies have been conducted from a microeconomic perspective at local level. What is more, the standard practices applied at this level of analysis tackle entities but ignore how they may be linked. This paper addresses these two challenges by building a novel agent-based model of a local agricultural production chain (a French cooperative wine-making system), utilized as a virtual laboratory for the ex ante estimation of flood impacts. We show how overlooking existing interactions between economic entities in production chains can result in either overestimation (double counting) or underestimation (wrong estimation of the consequences for the activity) of flood damage. Our results also reveal that considering interactions requires thorough characterization of their spatial configuration. Based on both the application of our method and the results obtained, we propose balanced recommendations for flood damage estimation at local level.
International audience ; Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. It is widely accepted that damage other than direct damage can account for a significant proportion of total damage. Yet due to scarcer data sources and lack of knowledge on links within and between economic activities, indirect impacts have received less attention than direct impacts. Furthermore, attempts to grasp indirect damage through economic models have not gone below regional levels. Even though local communities can be devastated by flood events without this being reflected in regional accounts, few studies have been conducted from a microeconomic perspective at local level. What is more, the standard practices applied at this level of analysis tackle entities but ignore how they may be linked. This paper addresses these two challenges by building a novel agent-based model of a local agricultural production chain (a French cooperative wine-making system), utilized as a virtual laboratory for the ex ante estimation of flood impacts. We show how overlooking existing interactions between economic entities in production chains can result in either overestimation (double counting) or underestimation (wrong estimation of the consequences for the activity) of flood damage. Our results also reveal that considering interactions requires thorough characterization of their spatial configuration. Based on both the application of our method and the results obtained, we propose balanced recommendations for flood damage estimation at local level.
