After the 1994 Real Plan ended fourteen years of high inflation in Brazil, the country's economy was expected—mistakenly—to grow quickly. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira discusses Brazil's economic trajectory from the mid-1990s to the present Lula administration, critically appraising the neoliberal reforms that have curtailed growth and proposing a national development strategy geared toward effective competition in the global marketplace
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Spanning the period from the country's independence in 1822 through mid-2016, Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira assesses the trajectory of Brazil's political, social, and economic development. Bresser-Pereira draws on his decades of first-hand experience to shed light on the many paradoxes that have characterized Brazil's polity, its society, and the relations between the two across nearly two centuries
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Globalization and catching up -- The key institution -- New developmentalism -- The tendency of the exchange rate toward overvaluation -- The Dutch disease -- Foreign savings and slow growth -- Foreign savings and financial crises
Intro -- Book Title -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Notes -- Introduction -- Method -- The Conventional Orthodoxy and New Developmentalism -- The Conventional Orthodoxy Defined -- Nation and Globalization -- Society's Cycles and State Cycles -- Notes -- 1-Low Growth -- Low Growth Rates -- Macroeconomic Instability -- A Perverse System -- Notes -- 2-The Old Developmentalism -- Economic Inequality and Populism -- Democratic Transition and Distribution -- Crisis and Surrender to the North -- Notes -- 3-Reforms and Institutions -- The Criteria for Choosing Strategic Policy Variables -- The Role of Institutions -- What Reforms? -- The 1995 Public Management Reform -- Notes -- 4-The Fiscal Debate -- High Tax Burden and Negative Public Savings -- Interest and Social Spending -- Fiscal Adjustment First? -- Notes -- 5-Is Inflation a Real Threat? -- The Inflation Targeting Policy -- The Inflation Targeting Regime -- Monetary Policy Regime -- Notes -- 6-Overappreciated Currency and the Dutch Disease -- An Obstacle on the Demand Side -- The Tendency to the Overappreciation of the Exchange Rate -- The Dutch Disease -- The Dutch Disease in Brazil -- Notes -- 7-Overappreciation and Foreign Savings -- Growth with Foreign Savings -- Foreign Savings and No Growth: 1994-2002 -- Substitution of Foreign for Domestic Savings -- State Exports and Some Growth Since 2003 -- Notes -- 8-High Interest Rates -- The Short and Long Terms and Brazil's Sovereign Risk -- The Wolf and Sheep Story -- Better Causes -- Natural Rate and Contradiction -- Notes -- 9-A Macroeconomic Model -- The Perverse and the Benign Frameworks -- The Interest and Exchange Rate Trap -- Equilibrium Interest Rate -- Economic Policy -- Model Summary -- Notes -- 10-Political Coalitions -- The Neoliberal-Dependent Pact and the Washington Consensus -- National Agreement -- An Alternative Coalition.
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This is an analysis of the new state and the new public management that is emerging in the 21st century. It presents the historical stages that led to the modern state, identifying a crisis of the nation-state and its origins in a fiscal crisis and in globalization.
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