An estimated DSGE model of Austria, the Euro Area and the US: some welfare implications of EMU
In: EI working paper 81
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In: EI working paper 81
In: European economy
In: Economic papers 345
In: EI working paper 78
In: European community studies
In: Publication series 10
In: Schriftenreihe der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Europaforschung (ECSA Austria) European Community Studies Association of Austria Publication Series v.9
In: EI working paper 65
In: IEF working paper 50
In: Forschungsberichte 2001.12
In: Schriftenreihe der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Europaforschung (ECSA Austria) 2
World Affairs Online
In: Working papers 78
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 44, Heft 3, S. 653-674
ISSN: 0161-8938
This analysis attempts to offer a counter strategy to the idea of anti-globalization and de-growth that had flared up again since the COVID-19 crisis. All international forecasts expect for the year 2020 the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Countries which can afford it, run a super-Keynesian fiscal policy to fight the crisis, accompanied by an extremely expansionary monetary policy in the USA (Fed) and in the euro area (ECB). As a third policy instrument besides fiscal and monetary policy, an aggressive pro-globalization trade policy could relieve and strengthen the crisis macro policy. To demonstrate which options are available we analyze nine mega free trade agreements, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the USA win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU-Japan, USA-Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The USA hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU 27 cannot profit much from further globalization.
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