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Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risks -- Learning to Deal with Fiscal Risks in Government Portfolio -- Dealing with Government Fiscal Risk: An Overview -- Accounting and Financial Accountability to Capture Risk -- Budgeting for Fiscal Risk -- Institutional and Analytical Framework for Measuring and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities -- Analytical Techniques Applicable to Government Management of Fiscal Risk -- Fiscal Sustainability and a Contingency Trust Fund -- A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability -- Evaluating Government Net Worth in Colombia and Républica Bolivariana de Venezuela -- The Challenges of Fiscal Risks in Transition: Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria -- Analyzing Government Fiscal Risk Exposure in China -- Dealing with Contingent Liabilities in Indonesia and Thailand -- Dealing with Contingent Liabilities in Colombia -- Dealing with Specific Sources of Government Fiscal Risk -- Pension Guarantees: A Methodology for Assessing Fiscal Risk -- Measuring and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities in the Banking Sector -- Government Insurance Programs: Risks and Risk Management -- Contingent Liabilities of the Central Bank: Analyzing a Possible Fiscal Risk for Government -- Contingent Liabilities in Infrastructure: Lessons from the East Asian Financial Crisis -- Monitoring Fiscal Risks of Subnational Governments: Selected Country Experiences -- Guarantees as Options: An Evaluation of Foreign Debt Restructuring Agreements -- The Fiscal Risk of Floods: Lessons of Argentina -- Toward a Code of Good Practice on Managing Fiscal Risk.

To understand the fiscal position of a country, contingent liabilities and other sources of fiscal risk need to be considered. The authors develop a framework to assess and manage fiscal risk in Bulgaria. Bulgaria's Currency Board Arrangement has effectively imposed fiscal discipline, but leaves only limited room to accommodate potential fiscal shocks. Through risks embedded in the portfolio of government contingent and direct liabilities, significant fiscal pressures could arise in the future. Major sources of risk include environmental liabilities and investment requirements, collection capacities of the social protection institutions, and further engagement in off-budget programs, such as government guarantees. To limit the Government's exposure to risks, yet accommodate investment needs crucial to growth and development, Bulgaria must find an optimal strategy for liability management, fiscal reserves, and risk mitigation. Priorities for dealing with existing risks and limiting further accumulation of risks include: 1) Mitigating currency and interest rate risks in the government liability structure. 2) Implementing proposed institutional and finance reform of the country's pension and health care systems. 3) Building adequate contingency reserves. 4) Introducing risk-sharing arrangements. 5) Prioritizing and placing strict limits on the amounts of new guaranteed obligations. 6) Developing government capacity to analyze and manage risks. 7) Fully integrating fiscal risk management with other policy considerations in fiscal management, as part of an integrated asset and liability management strategy.

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- The Editors and Authors -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- 1 Tax Expenditures: General Concept, Measurement, and Overview of Country Practices -- Tax Expenditures, Contingent Liabilities, and Direct Spending -- General Concept -- Tax Expenditure Reports among OECD Countries -- Conclusions -- 2 A Framework for Evaluating Tax Measures and Some Methodological Issues -- Relevance -- Effectiveness -- Efficiency -- Methodological Issues -- Summary -- Appendix A: Estimating the Change in Excess Burden per Dollar of Tax Expenditure -- 3 Tax Expenditures in Australia -- What Is a Tax Expenditure? -- Purpose of the Tax Expenditures Statement -- Measuring Tax Expenditures -- Defining Tax Expenditure Benchmarks -- Classification of Tax Expenditures -- Conclusion -- Appendix A: Cash versus Accrual Estimates -- Appendix B: Details of the Australian Tax Expenditure Benchmarks -- 4 From Tax Expenditure Reporting to Tax Policy Analysis: Some Experience from Belgium -- Tax Expenditure Reporting in Belgium -- The Benchmark Tax System -- Revenue Cost from Tax Expenditures -- From the Revenue Cost to the Economic Cost of Tax Expenditures -- 5 Federal Tax Expenditures in Canada -- Defining Tax Expenditures -- Calculation and Interpretation of the Tax Expenditure Estimates -- Estimation Methods Used in Canada -- Conclusion -- Appendix A: List of Personal Income Tax Expenditures Calculated Directly from the T1 Model -- Appendix B: List of Corporate Income Tax Expenditures Calculated Directly from the T2 Model -- 6 Tax Expenditures in the Netherlands -- History of Tax Expenditures in the Netherlands -- Tax Policy as a Part of General Government Policy -- Definition of Tax Expenditure -- Definition of Benchmark Tax Structure -- Use of Tax Expenditures -- Annual Tax Expenditure Report of the Budget Memorandum.