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The UK has some of the worst performing residential buildings in the EU from an energy efficiency perspective. Natural gas remains a dominant feature of existing and new-build housing with strong historical, technical, and social barriers to change. Consequently, the residential sector is responsible for significant shares of national emissions and has a strong role to play under ambitious net zero targets. To assess this role, this work combines long-term system-wide optimisation modelling with heat and electricity network models of representative residential locations. The scenario framework investigates key heating alternatives across futures with dwindling carbon budgets but lower restrictions on residential investment options. Comparing frameworks offers insights into "real life" applicability of technology solutions consistent with system-wide decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Residential sector heat plays an increasing role in lowering emissions as targets tighten. Moving away from natural gas becomes unavoidable and long-term trajectories combine end-use electrification, at household or collective levels, with supply-side decarbonisation. This is preferable to alternative gases that continue to carry uncertain emission impacts, but requires significant local network reinforcement. This could be deferred where technically difficult using near-term hybrid approaches. Enabling this transition will rely on policies that support open and varied technology portfolios.

The heating of homes is a major contributor to the UK's greenhouse gas emissions accounting for 13% of total emissions. 1 This is comparable to the carbon emissions of all petrol and diesel cars in the UK. 2 Meeting the UK government's net zero emissions goal for 2050 will only be possible by complete decarbonisation of the building stock (both existing and new). While emissions from heating have fallen by 11% since 1990 1, much of which was driven by efficiency programmes and regulation in the period 2002-2012 3, continuing decarbonisation at this pace would get us to zero emissions from buildings in 235 years and fall far short of meeting the 2050 target. Home heating energy consumption is also at risk of increasing further. Home working has developed substantially during the COVID-19 lockdown and is widely expected to remain at higher levels than pre-crisis 4 meaning that people may require houses which are on average warmer during the heating seasons. Data shows that domestic heating energy use was up by 15% during March when the lockdown started compared to March 2019 5,6., The potential for more time spent at home will make heat decarbonisation and the thermal comfort and health associated with homes even more important. There is uncertainty over the extent to which heating might practically be decarbonised in the future and what the optimal technologies may be. The aim of this paper is, to provide some clarity about the pathways forward, focusing on the next 5-10 years. We also draw on lessons learned from international examples for smart electrification of heating which we identify as one of the key strategies for decarbonisation of residential heat – at least in the short term.

This report forms a deliverable of the Energy System Development Pathways for Ethiopia (PATHWAYS) project. The project explored pathways for Ethiopia's electricity system to 2065 with the use of open-source energy system models, and developed local capacity to use and build on those models for the country's energy planning and policy decision-support. A participatory methodology was adopted, which engaged local experts and stakeholders in the co-creation of knowledge, through multiple and mixed methods of inquiry typically adopted in fields of engineering and the social sciences. Some of these engagement activities included workshops and interviews that drew upon local expertise to shape the narratives and boundaries on the possible futures for Ethiopia's electricity system, as well as a household survey on energy consumer behaviour. In addition, capacity development workshops were conducted; training students, academics, and staff of the government, not-for-profit and the private sector on the use of the Open-Source Energy System Modelling framework (OSeMOSYS). This report provides the synthesised findings of the project and highlights ways of building on its activities.

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices.This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded. Keywords: Energy system modelling tool, Open-source software, Model-based public policy, Software development practice, Outreach practice