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Technology makes possible the production of existing goods and services with fewer input resources and the creation of new products and services fulfilling hitherto unmet or unrealized social needs. The accomplishment of both of these functions is difficult to estimate quantitatively, and it is thus hard to say anything definitive about the effects of technology on employment or on the quality of jobs, especially since technology is only one among several factors that influence this. Forecasts of future technological trends and their social impacts tend to overestimate changes in the short term, and underestimate them in the long term. This article stresses the key role of social and organizational learning, and the necessity for a higher level of cooperation among labor, management, and government in the selection and introduction of new technology and its accommodation to society. In the future the factory and the office must become more like a research laboratory or an advanced school where cooperative learning is the norm.

Der Autor zeigt anhand einiger Beispiele aus den USA, daß ökonometrische Modelle der Energieversorgung und des Energiebedarfs und ihrer Verflechtung mit volkswirtschaftlichen Größen zu einem integralen Bestandteil der Politik im Energiebereich geworden sind, so daß der Energiesektor als ein Beispiel politisch relevanter sozio-ökonomischer Forschung gelten kann. Ein weiteres Beispiel dafür, daß sozio-ökonomische Forschung den politischen Prozeß beeinflussen kann, läßt sich an der Verwendung von multiplen Regressionsanalysen im Rahmen der Umweltforschung nachweisen, die sich mit der Luftverschmutzung befassen. Ein weiteres Beispiel sozio-ökonomischer Umweltforschung, die die Abwasserabgaben zum Gegenstand hatte, zeigt jedoch auch, daß in diesem Fall keine Beeinflussung des politischen Prozesses erfolgte. Für die Meinungsforschung gilt ebenfalls, daß deren Ergebnisse auf die Umweltschutzpolitik der Regierung nicht eingewirkt haben. Abschließend werden einige Möglichkeiten für wissenschaftliche Tests im Bereich Energie und Umweltpolitik aufgezeigt und bestimmte Prioritäten künftiger sozialer Forschung in diesem Bereich bestimmt. (NG)

Focus is on a broad definition of technology assessment, as both an intellectual & sociopolitical process of exploring, evaluating, & selecting options made possible by technology, including those which will actually be developed, applied, & diffused. The Technology Assessment Act of 1972 provided a broad new charter which recognized that both technology, & social problems in general, can have many unforeseen results, not contemplated within the set of purposes for which the program was undertaken or the technology introduced. The term 'technology assessment' needs to be broadened to include other types of social decisions which may not involve technology in any direct way, eg, changes in the policies of government regulatory agencies, various social programs in education, health, etc, assessing the absence of technology, assessment of social supporting systems which evolve along with the introduction & diffusion of technology. A more useful term to include all these areas is suggested: problem assessment, which would start with a defined social problem or need, & attempt to explore as broad a set of means as possible for meeting that need or solving that problem. The objectives of technology assessment are seen as: trying to anticipate the consequences of increasing scale of application, stimulate continuing research & monitoring related to it, & serve as a goal towards continuing adaptive innovation. The arguments advanced in favor of participatory technology by its advocates are not seen as realistic but rather as a source of continuing frustration or paralysis. The function of technology assessment would ideally be one in which the expectations of various social groups are balanced with the decisions of the experts, the 'elites,' & political considerations. E. Loomis.