Suchergebnisse

This analysis investigates a formal nonlinear systems model characterizing longitudinal change in the environment as a function of oscillating partisan control of the White House. It is assumed that one political party will tend to favor help for the environment despite some economic costs, whereas the other party will generally favor economic growth over environmental concerns. These policy changes affect the environment interactively with both public concern for particular environmental problems and the economic costs relating to environmental repair. This interaction with policy changes causes a disruption in the continuously evolving balance between the social factors that damage the environment and the environment's own ability to recover. The disruptive potential to the environment is considerably ameliorated with a reduction in the electoral cycling.

Modellhaft werden Umweltpolitik und ihr Wandel untersucht, indem politische, soziale und ökonomische Einflußfaktoren beachtet werden. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Resultat, daß die verschiedenen Faktoren in nicht linearer Weise aufeinander wirken und deshalb jeweils erhebliche Unterschiede der Umweltpolitik zur Folge haben. Das Beispiel, das Daten der US-amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen, der unterschiedlichen parteipolitischen Besetzung der amerikanischen Präsidentschaft und der unterschiedlichen Regulierungspraktiken vor allem benutzt, zeigt, wie erheblich die Wahlen und parteipolitische Effekte umweltpolitisch sein können. Entsprechend werden Folgerungen überlegt, um die überlebenswichtige Umweltpolitik zu stabilisieren und in ihren Kriterien kontinuierlicher ausfallen zu lassen. (AuD-Nar)

This analysis investigates the mass dynamics of competitive electoral politics with respect to the presidential vote during the 1928–36 realigning period for the United States. A formal system of three interdependent differential equations is employed to characterize the dynamic processes of the aggregate voter shifts between the Republican, Democratic, and nonvoter populations. The modeling strategy is used to locate substantial variations in the mass dynamics between large subgroups in the electorate as well as to identify both national and socially interactive components to the patterns of voter movements. The results show that the overall realignment period was quite complex. Vote switching from the Republican party to the Democratic party was the dominant characteristic of the 1932 election, whereas additional Democratic gains in 1936 came mostly from new voters.

Two models of voting are often used to explain the Nazi vote in the Weimar Republic. The first model states that the Nazis' electoral successes resulted from Protestant petty bourgeois and peasant support for fascism. The second model argues that the Nazis gained the bulk of their support from newly mobilized voters. Previous analyses of these models are plagued with serious problems due to their limited data base. This study reassesses these models with the use of an unusually complete data set for all of Germany and concludes that much of the previous work examining the Nazi vote wrongly identifies the Protestant petty bourgeoisie as the major contributor to the Nazi vote. The Nazis received important levels of support from Protestant peasants, new voters, and Catholic petty bourgeoisie.