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Examination of 155 poll forecasts in 68 national elections since 1949 shows that errors average nearly twice what statistical theory would indicate. Polls predict the division of vote between major parties better than individual party %s, leading to 85% success in picking the winner. The worst failures occurred in a few elections where most polls went wrong. Liberal party votes were correctly forecast, but those of conservatives were slightly underestimated. Improved polling methods have not led to better forecasts. 1 Table, 6 References. AA

THE BEWILDERING ARRAY OF STATISTICS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF BIVARIATE TABLES OF NOMINAL & ORDINAL DATA IS MORE SATISFACTORY TO THOSE WHO INVENT STATISTICS THAN TO THOSE WHO USE THEM. WHEN CHOOSING A MEASURE OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 2 ATTRIBUTES, IT IS NECESSARY TO CONSIDER MORE THAN THEIR MATHEMATICAL OR STATISTICAL QUALITIES. THE MOST USED FORM OF ANALYSIS INCLUDED A LARGER PROPORTION OF 2 DICHOTOMIES. A 2 PLACE NOMINAL SCALE IS DEFINED AS A DICHOTOMY. MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION FOR POLYTOMIES SHOULD BE TREATED UNDER NOMINAL VARIABLES & DEFERRED UNTIL AFTER CHI--SQUARE. IF ONE IS AWARE OF THE BROAD RANGE OF STATISTICS, THE NUMBER OF THOSE HE CAN CHOOSE TO CALCULATE CAN BE LARGER. IN CHOOSING A STATISTIC AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE, THE INDIVIDUAL INVESTIGATOR CAN CHOOSE THE MEASURE THAT BEST REPRESENTS THE RELATIONSHIPS HE WANTS TO DRAW TO THE STATISTIC'S ATTENTION. THE LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT OF THE VARIABLES, THE NUMBER OF CATEGORIES, THE SUBSTANTIVE MEANING OF THE DATA, THE ANALYST'S PURPOSE, THE PROPOSITION BEING INVESTIGATED, & THE USEFULNESS OF STATISTICS AS COMMUNICATION DEVICES ARE AMONG THE NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING MEASURES. 7 TABLES. MODIFIED HA.

The American public retains a genuine affection for the idea of grass-roots government. The Republican party has failed, despite conscientious effort, to use this sentiment as a lever to strengthen state and local and limit national power. Federalism weakened political parties from the start, but the national party organization has not become stronger along with the national government. The Republican party has ap parently been too weak to brake centralization at the national level, but itself too decentralized to strengthen local govern ment. Grants-in-aid have made the subordinate level stronger, but at the same time they have depoliticized it. Can a states' rights party survive only if it advocates a federal subsidy for local government and local politics?